Title: Scenario Planning and its Future: what’s missing and does it matter?

Scenario Planning and Scenario Informed Strategic Planning have been in commercial use for several decades. However, over the last decade, the domain has attracted an increasing interest from academics who, inter alia, have examined the process from aspects of psychology, organisational sense-making, strategic management and organisational change. Acknowledging these extant research channels and drawing upon nearly 3 decades of experience of scenario planning on four continents, this presentation explores initiatives that might fortify the process and help academics and practicing managers better understand the actions of its actors. Drawing upon research in sociology, neuro-marketing and the creative arts, the presentation informs future research pathways, not previously travelled. As is usual in the proposing of new or different dimensions, there will be a much that is controversial and much that is useful.

Peter McKiernan is Professor of Management at the University of Strathclyde, Scotland and Dean of the School of Management and Governance at Murdoch University in Australia. He has been engaged with foresight activities since the 1970s, specialising in econometric forecasting and then, from 1988, in scenario planning, when the University of St Andrews partnered Shell executives in setting up the St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI). Peter was Chief Executive of SAMI during the 1990s, as it continued to spread scenario planning techniques across UK public and private sectors. Since then, Peter has led numerous scenario projects across the globe, including the Scenarios for Scotland (in preparation for devolution in 1998) and more recently for the the States of Jersey, the Shetland Islands, the City of Edinburgh, the Counties of Fife, Stirling and Grampian, the Scottish Futures Forum, the North East of England, TWR (Germany), the St John of God HealthCare Group (Australia) and Southern Cross Care (Australia). He teaches scenario planning at the prestigious Strathclyde Business School and at its many international locations.

Peter is a Fellow of the British Academy of Management, a past President and a recipient of its Life Time Achievement Award; a Fellow of the European Academy of Management and a Past President; he holds Fellowships from the Academy of Social Sciences, the Governance Institute of Australia and the Chartered Institute of Secretaries and Administrators and a Companionship of the Association of Business Schools.