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Glen Guyver-Fletcher


I am a MIBTP PhD student in Epidemiology at Warwick. Born and bred in Coventry, I completed a First Class Honours Degree in Biological Sciences at the University of Warwick in 2017. An internship at PHE Porton Down, developing an IgG flow cytometry assay to support research into Bordetella pertussis (Whooping cough) developed my interest in disease. My first foray into epidemiology other than lectures came with my first miniproject, working with Dr Michael Tildesley to develop a simple model of Foot-and-Mouth disease in the UK using historic data, and using this to assess different methods of eradication.

In my personal life, I enjoy running, reading, and snooker.

  • Guyver-Fletcher, G., Gorsich, E.E., Tildesley, M. (In press). A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases.
  • Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley, Edward M. Hill, Graham F. Medley,
    Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics, Volume 37, 2021, 100526, ISSN 1755-4365,
  • Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J., Atkins, B.D, Penman, B., Southall, E., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., McKimm, H., Gorsich, E.E., Hill, E.M, & Dyson, L. (2021). The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 376: 20200261. 20200261.
  • Keeling, M. J., Hill, E. M., Gorsich, E. E., Penman, B., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., Leng, T., McKimm, H., Tamborrino, M., Dyson, L., & Tildesley, M. J. (2021). Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS computational biology, 17(1), e1008619.

My current research is into modelling Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in endemic areas. FMD is one of the most important diseases in the world economically, infecting all domesticated cloven-hoofed animals and many wild species and many wild species as well. Areas where FMD is known to be present have greatly reduced access to international livestock markets, and the cost of treatment and control can be prohibitive. Research has tended to focus on epidemic outbreaks of FMD in free areas, due to the simpler assumptions and more comprehensive data.

My PhD project is titled "Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model", begun in October 2018 and supervised by Dr Michael Tildesley and Dr Erin Gorsich. Data are available from the Republic of Turkey which is unusually comprehensive. This data is supporting the development and use of an epidemiological model of FMD in the country, written in C++. The project aims to use the developed model to simulate different vaccination policies and compare them to the current policy on efficacy and cost-effectiveness. The results of the project will help support future decisions on management of the disease.

Glen Guyver-Fletcher


Email: g dot guyver-fletcher at warwick dot ac dot uk

Office: 5-14, Mathematical Sciences Building