Research Interests
My main area of research is in the development of mathematical models to simulate the spread of livestock and zoonotic diseases. I have a particular interest in the targeting of control in the event of an outbreak to minimise the spread of disease.
Areas of Expertise:
- Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases
- Infectious disease control
- Model ftting and parameter estimation
- Cross-scale modelling of infectious diseases
Biography
BSc University of Cambridge
PhD University of Cambridge
- Ryan, S., Tildesley, Michael J.. The utility of land cover maps to inform spatialepidemic models of disease transmission in the UKlivestock industry. PLoS Computational Biology
- Keeling, Matt J., Hill, Edward M., Gorsich, Erin E., Penman, Bridget S., Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Leng, Trystan, McKimm, Hector, Tamborrino, Massimiliano, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., 2021. Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK : short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (1)
- Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J., 2021. Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS Computational Biology
- Sellman, Stefan, Tildesley, Michael J., Burdett, Christopher L., Miller, Ryan S., Hallman, Clayton, Webb, Colleen T., Wennergren, Uno, Portacci, Katie, Lindström, Tom, 2020. Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (2)
- Tennant, Warren, Tildesley, Michael J., Spencer, Simon E. F., Keeling, Matthew James, 2020. Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898?1949. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287 (1928)
- Pollington, Timothy, Tildesley, Michael J., Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Chapman, Lloyd A. C., 2020. Developments in statistical inference when assessing spatiotemporal disease clustering with the tau statistic. Spatial Statistics
- Atkins, Benjamin D., Jewell, Chris P., Runge, Michael C., Ferrari, Matthew J., Shea, Katriona, Probert, William J. M., Tildesley, Michael J., 2020. Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions : a comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 506
- Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J., Dyson, Louise, 2020. Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data : application to epidemiological incidence data. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (9)
- Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J., Solomon, Anthony W., Mabey, David C. W., Sokana, Oliver, Marks, Michael, Dyson, Louise, 2020. Modelling treatment strategies to inform Yaws eradication. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26 (11), pp. 2685-2693
- Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J., Atkins, Benjamin D., Penman, Bridget S., Southall, Emma, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, McKimm, Hector, Gorsich, Erin E., Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, 2020. The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Arzt, Jonathan, Branan, Matthew A., Delgado, Amy H., Yadav, Shankar, Moreno-Torres, Karla I., Tildesley, Michael J., Stenfeldt, Carolina, 2019. Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Scientific Reports, 9 (1)
- Probert, W. J. M., Lakkur, S., Fonnesbeck, C. J., Shea, K., Runge, M. C., Tildesley, M. J., Ferrari, M. J., 2019. Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374 (1776)
- Li, Shou-Li, Ferrari, Matthew J., Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Pannell, David, Shea, Katriona, 2019. Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control : Ebola as a case study. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286 (1905)
- Dessavre, Adjani Gama, Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J., Dyson, Louise, 2019. The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 481, pp. 183-193
- Dyson, Louise, Mooring, Eric Q., Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J., Marks, Michael, 2019. Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws. Gates Open Research, 3
- Tsao, Kimberly, Sellman, Stefan, Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M., Murrieta, Deedra J., Hallman, Clayton, Lindström, Tom, Miller, Ryan S., Portacci, Katie, Tildesley, Michael J., Webb, Colleen T., 2019. Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale. Interface Focus, 10 (1)
- Tildesley, Michael J., Brand, Samuel, Brooks Pollock, E., Bradbury, Naomi, Werkman, Marleen, Keeling, Matthew James, 2019. The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections. Nature Sustainability, 2, pp. 834-840
- Chaiban, Celia, Biscio, Christophe, Thanapongtharm, Weerapong, Tildesley, Michael J., Xiao, Xiangming, Robinson, Timothy P., Vanwambeke, Sophie O., Gilbert, Marius, 2019. Point pattern simulation modelling of extensive and intensive chicken farming in Thailand : accounting for clustering and landscape characteristics. Agricultural Systems, 173, pp. 335-344
- Sellman, Stefan, Tsao, Kimberly, Tildesley, Michael J., Brommesson, Peter, Webb, Colleen T., Wennergren, Uno, Keeling, Matthew James, Lindström, Tom, 2018. Need for speed : an optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations. PLOS Computational Biology, 14 (4)
- Beerenwinkel, Niko, Hill, Edward M., House, Thomas, Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Brum, Eric, Yamage, Mat, Kalam, Md. A., Prosser, Diann J., Takekawa, John Y., Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius, Tildesley, Michael J., 2018. The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh. PLoS Computational Biology, 14 (9)
- Tanaka, Mark M., Sellman, Stefan, Tsao, Kimberly, Tildesley, Michael J., Brommesson, Peter, Webb, Colleen T., Wennergren, Uno, Keeling, Matt J., Lindström, Tom, 2018. Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations. PLoS Computational Biology, 14 (4)
- Koelle, Katia, Probert, William J. M., Jewell, Chris P., Werkman, Marleen, Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Goto, Yoshitaka, Runge, Michael C., Sekiguchi, Satoshi, Shea, Katriona, Keeling, Matthew James, Ferrari, Matthew J., Tildesley, Michael J., 2018. Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS Computational Biology, 14 (7)
- Hill, Edward, House, Thomas A., Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Brum, Eric, Yamage, Mat, Kalam, Md. A., Prosser, Diann J., Takekawa, John Y., Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius, Tildesley, Michael J., 2018. The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh. PLOS Computational Biology, 14 (9)
- Retkute, Renata, Jewell, Chris P., Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Zhang, Geli, Xiao, Xiangming, Thanapongtharme, Weerapong, Keeling, Matthew James, Gilbert, Marius, Tildesley, Michael J., 2018. Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand : the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 159, pp. 171-181
- Meadows, Amanda J., Mundt, Christopher C., Keeling, Matthew James, Tildesley, Michael J., 2018. Disentangling the influence of livestock vs. farm density on livestock disease epidemics. Ecosphere, 9 (7)
- Gilbert, Marius, Prosser, Diann J., Zhang, Geli, Artois, Jean, Dhingra, Madhur S., Tildesley, Michael J., Newman, Scott H., Guo, Fusheng, Black, Peter, Claes, Filip, Kalpradvidh, Wantanee, Shin, YeunKyung, Jeong, Wooseog, Takekawa, John Y., Lee, Hansoo, Xiao, Xiangming, 2017. Could changes in the agricultural landscape of northeastern China have influenced the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5Nx viruses?. Frontiers In Veterinary Science, 4 (225)
- Webb, Colleen, Ferrari, Matthew, Lindstrom, Tom, Carpenter, Tim, Durr, Salome, Garner, Graeme, Jewell, Chris, Stevenson, Mark, Ward, Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Backer, Jantien, Tildesley, Michael J., 2017. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support emergency disease management. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 138, pp. 124-133
- Bradbury, Naomi V., Probert, William J. M., Shea, Katriona, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Keeling, Matthew James, Ferrari, Matthew J., Tildesley, Michael J., 2017. Quantifying the value of perfect information in emergency vaccination campaigns. PLoS Computational Biology, 13 (2)
- Hill, Edward, Tildesley, Michael J., House, Thomas A., 2017. Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence. Scientific Reports, 7
- Hill, Edward, Tildesley, Michael J., House, Thomas A., 2017. How predictable are flu pandemics?. Significance, 14 (6), pp. 28-33
- Hill, Edward, House, Thomas A., Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Yamage, Mat, Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius, Tildesley, Michael J., 2017. Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk. Epidemics, 20, pp. 37-55
- Li, Shou-Li, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Ferrari, Matthew J., Mummah, Riley, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Probert, William J. M., Shea, Katriona, 2017. Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (22), pp. 5659-5664
- Probert, William J. M., Shea, Katriona, Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Runge, Michael C., Carpenter, Tim E., Dürr, Salome, Garner, M. G. (Michael Graeme), Harvey, Neil, Stevenson, Mark A., Webb, Colleen T., Werkman, Marleen, Tildesley, Michael J., Ferrari, Matthew J., 2016. Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control : objectives matter. Epidemics, 15, pp. 10-19
- Lindström, Tom, Tildesley, Michael J., Webb, Colleen T., 2015. A bayesian ensemble approach for epidemiological projections. PLoS Computational Biology, 11 (4)
- Brand, Samuel, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, 2015. Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics : a spectral method. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 370, pp. 121-134
- Dawson, Peter Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Tildesley, Michael J., 2015. Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world : modelling disease spread with partial data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282 (1808)
- Shea, Katriona, Tildesley, Michael J., Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Ferrari, Matthew J., 2014. Adaptive management and the value of information : learning via intervention in epidemiology. PLoS Biology, 12 (10)
- Buhnerkempe, Michael G., Tildesley, Michael J., Lindström, Tom, Grear, Daniel A., Portacci, Katie, Miller, Ryan S., Lombard, Jason E., Werkman, Marleen, Keeling, Matthew James, Wennergren, Uno, Webb, Colleen T., 2014. The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States. PLoS One, 9 (3)
- Porphyre, Thibaud, Auty, Harriet K., Tildesley, Michael J., Gunn, George J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., (Mark E. J.), 2013. Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?. PLOS ONE, 8 (10)
- Tildesley, Michael J., Ryan, Sadie J., 2012. Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models. PLoS Computational Biology, Vol.8 (No.11)
- Yan, Lei, Gao, Yan, Zhang, Yong, Tildesley, Michael J., Liu, L, Zhang, Y, Wen, Leying, Wang, Wei, Li, Xiaodan, Hu, Ying, Bai, Tian, Wang, Min, Zeng, Yuhong, Wang, Dingming, Wang, Xianjun, Lan, Yu, Wang, Shiwen, Shu, Yuelong, 2012. Epidemiological and virological characteristics ofpandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in schooloutbreaks in China. PLoS One, Vol.7 (No.9)
- Tildesley, Michael J., Gally, D. L., McNeilly, T. N., Low, J. C., Mahajan, A., Savill, N. J., 2012. Insights into mucosal innate responses to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 colonization of cattle by mathematical modelling of excretion dynamics. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.9 (No.68), pp. 518-527
- Tildesley, Michael J., Smith, Gary, Keeling, Matthew James, 2012. Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.104 (No.3-4), pp. 224-239
- Tildesley, Michael J., Volkova, Victoriya, Woolhouse, M. E. J. (Mark E. J.), 2011. Potential for epidemic take-off from the primary outbreak farm via livestock movements. BMC Veterinary Research, Vol.7 (No.1)
- Tildesley, Michael J., House, Thomas A., Bruhn, Mark C., Curry, Ross J., O'Neil, Maggie, Allpress, Justine L. E., Smith, Gary, Keeling, Matthew James, 2010. Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol.107 (No.3), pp. 1041-1046
- Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen. P., Grenfell, Bryan T., Keeling, Matthew James, Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., 2010. Inference for individual-level models of infectious diseases in large populations. Statistica Sinica, Vol.20 (No.1), pp. 239-261
- Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, 2009. Is R0 a good predictor of final epidemic size : foot-and-mouth disease in the UK. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol.258 (No.4), pp. 623-629
- Tildesley, Michael J., Bessell, Paul R., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., 2009. The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease. Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences, Vol.276 (No.1671), pp. 3239-3248
- Tildesley, Michael J., Deardon, Rob, Savill, Nicholas J., Bessell, Paul R., Brooks, Stephen P., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Grenfell, Bryan T., Keeling, Matthew James, 2008. Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences, Vol.275 (No.1641), pp. 1459-1468
- Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, 2008. Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.85 (No.1-2), pp. 107-124
- Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Brooks, Stephen P., Grenfell, Bryan T., 2007. Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.4 (No.13), pp. 235-241
- Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Brooks, Stephan P., Grenfell, Bryan T., 2006. Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research, Vol.2 (No.3)
- Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Tildesley, Michael J., Linard, Catherine, Halloy, José, Keeling, Matthew James, Gilbert, Marius, 2013. The Nosoi commute : a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities. arXiv
- Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, 2009. Corrigendum to 'Is R-0 a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK': [vol 258, pg 623, 2009]. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier, pp. 863-863
- Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen P., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Grenfell, Bryan T., Keeling, Matthew James, 2007. Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease. Nature, Nature Publishing, pp. E12-E13
- Keeling, Matthew James, Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Shaw, Duncan, Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen P., Grenfell, Bryan T., 2006. FMD control strategies - Comment. Veterinary Record, B M J Group, pp. 707-708
| Title | Funder | Award start | Award end |
|---|---|---|---|
| EEID US-UK collaborative scheme.Title :Adaptive Surveillance and control for the elimination of endemic disease | BBSRC | 01 Oct 2019 | 30 Sep 2024 |
| Investigating the impact of farmer behaviour and farmer-led control of infectious disease outbreaks in livestock. Re-submission | BBSRC | 01 Oct 2019 | 30 Sep 2022 |
| TBC: UK-Canada Doctoral Exchange Scheme ( Helen Wilson) | UK Research and Innovation | 01 Apr 2020 | 31 Mar 2022 |
| Memorandum of Understanding with IRLI to organise online training of academics and government workers from countries of strategic interest to both partners, in collaboration, and to organise a workshop for the same group, which has been funded by HEFCE, in 2021. | International Livestock Research Institute | 09 Oct 2020 | 08 Oct 2021 |
| Linking Network Models of Swine Movement Patterns with Potential Disease Outbreak Processes Across the United States to Inform Livestock Risk Assessments | US Department of Agriculture | 15 Jul 2018 | 14 Jul 2021 |
| COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic. | UK Research and Innovation | 01 May 2020 | 07 Jul 2021 |
| Ensemble Prediction for Livestock Disease | US Department of Agriculture | 01 Jul 2017 | 30 Jun 2020 |
| Yr4 funds. NIH sub-award via Oklahoma - amendment to Ideate 50953 Transmission Dynamics and Spillover of Avian Influenza under Changing Agricultural Intensification and Landscapes | National Institutes of Health | 01 Jul 2016 | 30 Jun 2019 |
| EPSRC GCRF 2017 Institutional - Technology development to improve surveillance and reduce the human health impact of rabies in dogs and in the Philippines | EPSRC | 01 Sep 2017 | 28 Feb 2019 |
| US-UK Collab Linking models and policy: Using active adaptive management for optimal control of disease outbreaks | BBSRC | 01 Apr 2016 | 31 Dec 2017 |
| US-UK Collab Linking models and policy: Using active adaptive management for optimal control of disease outbreaks. BBSRC/NSF Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases call | BBSRC | 01 Oct 2012 | 30 Sep 2017 |
| Development and testing of Operational Models of Bovine Tuberculosis in British Cattle and Badgers - Phase III & IV | Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs | 01 Sep 2016 | 31 Mar 2017 |
| BBSRC DTC Studentship with IAH 50:50 - Multi-scale inference of foot and mouth disease spread in the UK and Japan | Pirbright Institute, The | 07 Jan 2013 | 06 Jan 2017 |
| An adaptive management framework to minimise the impact of avian influenza outbreaks | EPSRC | 01 Sep 2016 | 01 Jan 2017 |
| Tildesley NIH sub-award via Oklahoma - amendment to Ideate 35528 Transmission Dynamics and Spillover of Avian Influenza under Changing Agricultural Intensification and Landscapes | National Institutes of Health | 01 Apr 2016 | 30 Jun 2016 |
| Transmission dynamics and spillover of avian influenza under changing agricultural intensification and landscapes | National Institutes of Health | 23 Jul 2013 | 30 Jun 2016 |
| Sub-award on (US Dept of Homeland Security funded) Spread of animal disease within US Livestock: improving decisions and interventions G-9683-2 | Colorado State University | 27 Apr 2013 | 26 Apr 2014 |
| Amendment to existing sub-award for international travel (infoed 31275)(US Dept of Homeland Security funded) Spread of animal disease within US Livestock: improving decisions and interventions G-9683-2 | Colorado State University | 06 Dec 2011 | 26 Apr 2013 |
| Sub-award on (US Dept of Homeland Security funded) Spread of animal disease within US Livestock: improving decisions and interventions G-9683-2 | Colorado State University | 12 Jul 2011 | 26 Apr 2013 |
| Sub-award on (US Dept of Homeland Security funded) Spread of animal disease within US Livestock: improving decisions and interventions G-9683-2 | Colorado State University | 12 Jul 2011 | 26 Apr 2013 |
| Subcontract for Centre of Expertise in Animal Disease Outbreaks (WT grant held by Edinburgh WT079445/Z/06/Z) | Wellcome Trust | 01 Sep 2011 | 30 Aug 2012 |