First modelling of new interventions in the Mandoul focus
Historic case data was used to assess the transmission dynamics in the Mandoul focus of Chad. For the period 2000-2013 we used the Warwick gHAT model to fitted to the data to quantify reduction in new infections due to active and passive screening activities. In 2014 vector control was introduced to Mandoul, followed by improvements in passive detection in 2015. Using the model to perform counterfactual scenario analysis, we were able to estimate the contribution of these new interventions to reduction in case reporting and transmission for 2014-2015.
The model suggested that approximately 70% of the decline in case reporting during 2014-2015 was due to vector control and that transmission was likely to have been interrupted during this period. The improvement in passive screening were estimated to have contributed to around 9% of the transmission reduction.
Peer-reviewed paper: Mahamat MH, Peka, M, Rayaisse, J-B, Rock, KS, Toko, MA, Darnas, J, Brahim, GM, Alkatib, AB, Yoni, W, Tirados, I, Courtin, F, Brand, SPB, Nersy, C, Alfaroukh, IO, Torr, SJ, Lehane, MJ, Solano, P (2017). Adding tsetse control to medical activities contributes to decreasing transmission of sleeping sickness in the Mandoul focus (Chad). PLoS NTD.
Updated modelling analysis for Mandoul