The Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) Modelling Consortium is an important component in supporting our understanding of gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (gHAT or sleeping sickness) transmission and elimination. The NTD Modelling Consortium has been running since 2015, bringing together a pool of infectious disease modellers from a range of institutions and working across 7 different NTDs. gHAT researchers involved in the NTD Modelling Consortium (Warwick and Swiss TPH) and HAT MEPP work closely together to combine their expertise.
Sleeping sickness is a tropical disease found in West and Central Africa, transmitted to humans by tsetse (biting flies), that is typically fatal without treatment. To date, interventions have reduced sleeping sickness cases to historically low levels and the World Health Organisation (WHO) has set a goal to eliminate transmission of the infection by 2030.
The focus of the NTD Modelling Consortium’s work is on developing quantitative methods required for mathematical modelling to allow analysis and predictions of sleeping sickness, including:
- Analysis of infectious disease data
- Developing and adapting models of disease transmission and interventions
- Matching models to data (e.g. Bayesian inference)
- Forecasting of time to elimination of transmission across settings and population sizes
Work is currently underway on stochastic modelling of: