Publications and preprints

Introducing a framework for within host-dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans - Higgins, Looker, Sunnucks, Carruthers, Finnie, Keeling and Hill

We present a mechanistic within-host infection model for influenza A(H5N1), novel for its explicit consideration of the biological differences between the upper and lower respiratory tracts. These developments enable us to estimate a distribution of viral lifespans and effective replication rates in human H5N1 influenza cases. We combine our within-host model with a viral mutation model to determine the probability of an infected individual generating a droplet transmissible strain of influenza A(H5N1) through mutation. For three required mutations, we found a peak probability of approximately 10−3 that a human case of H5N1 influenza produces at least one virion during the infectious period. Our findings provide insights into the risk of differing infectious pathways of influenza A(H5N1) (namely the avian-human vs the avian-mammal-human routes), demonstrating the three-mutation pathway being a cause of concern in human cases. Additionally, our framework - combining a within-host infection model with a branching process model for viral mutation - is generalisable to other pathogens, allowing mutation probabilities to be more easily ascertained. Our findings are a starting point for further modelling of influenza A(H5N1) and other pathogens where differing tissue susceptibilities and human-to-human transmission is of concern.

Education

• Applied mathematics PhD - University of Warwick, Sep 2024 onwards
• Applied mathematics MSc - University of Warwick, Sep 2023 - Sep 2024
  Taught modules covered mathematical modelling, numerical algorithms, computational techniques, stochastic processes, random graphs and stochastic analysis. Research elements comprised of two projects - 'Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenxa infection in humans' and 'On stochastic methods for modelling epidemics'.
• Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics and Economics BSc - University of Warwick, Sep 2020 - Jun 2023
  Studied a range of topics in theoretical statistics as well as in pure mathematics and mathematical optimisation. In my final year, I specialised in multivariate statistics, statistical genetics, Bayesian statistics and stochastic processes.

Experience

• Senior graduate teaching assistant - University of Warwick
  Seminar leader in the Statistics department at Warwick. I am currently teaching ST227 Stochastic ProcessesLink opens in a new window, ST229 Probability for Mathematical Statistics and ST323 / ST412 Multivariate StatisticsLink opens in a new window
• Analyst - Aurora Energy Research UK Contributed to two projects at Aurora - 'The GB Landscape for Flexible Energy' and 'It Takes Two' general meetings. The former focussed on the evolution of the flexible energy market in the future, looking at battery storage, the economics of peakers, and the implications on inertia levels of potential changes in the generation mix. 'It Takes Two' studied the economics of co-locating battery storage and hydrogen electrolysers with renewables.
• Strategy analyst - Sembcorp Energy UK
  Worked to maximise revenue of their fleet of gas reciprocating engines in the 'Balancing Market', 'Fast Reserve' and 'Short-term Operating Reserve' markets. A highlight of my time there was building a model to forecast levels of inertia requirement at various sites across Scotland to inform sites in which capital expenditure would be most profitable.