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Paper No. 09-20

Download 09-20

C Mazzetta

Age-specificity in conditional ring-recovery models

Abstract: We consider the case of age-specific ring-recovery data obtained only from recovered individual birds and modelled by conditioning a multinomial distribution on the recovery. These models may be appealing when the information about the numbers of marked individuals is missing but they are often analysed by ignoring a large set of nuisance parameters, the recovery rates. We investigate what are the consequences of this type of conditioning by relating the age-time specific structure of recovery rates to the estimation of survival.

Bayesian estimation; Conditional multinomial; MCMC; Ringrecovery; Survival rates.