Departmental news

The Institute of Precision Diagnostics and Translational Medicine at UHCW was delighted to welcome a nationwide audience to the launch of its Multi-Omics platform on Thursday 8 May 2025.

May’s local elections saw a surge in support for the right-wing populist party Reform. What might be driving this swing away from mainstream parties? Do the results reflect what voters are seeing in their local environment? Professor Thiemo Fetzer explores the findings of a recent studyLink opens in a new window with Jacob Edenhofer and Prashant Garg, published in Economics Letters.

"In towns across England and Wales, empty storefronts stand as silent witnesses to economic transformation. These vacant premises represent more than just business failures. They are visible wounds in the social fabric of communities, and as our research demonstrates, powerful drivers of political change.

Our study reveals a significant positive association between high street vacancy rates and support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. This finding adds crucial empirical evidence to the growing literature on the relationship between local economic conditions and populist voting behaviour.

Beyond Economic Metrics

While economists often focus on traditional measures like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or wage stagnation, our research suggests that the visible manifestations of decline may matter more for political behaviour than abstract economic indicators. High street vacancies serve as daily visual reminders of community deterioration that affect all residents, not just those directly impacted by job losses.

"The perception of local decline versus actual economic metrics is what matters," I noted in recent discussions of this work. "Economic welfare has improved overall, but structural transformation creates winners and losers." This distinction is crucial. A community might show positive economic growth on paper while experiencing the hollowing out of its social spaces. The empty café where pensioners once gathered, the shuttered shop where neighbours exchanged local news—these losses represent more than economic transactions. They represent the erosion of community bonds.

The Social Consumption Crisis

High streets traditionally served dual functions: economic exchange and social consumption. The latter function - providing spaces for community interaction -has been largely overlooked in economic analyses of retail decline. Our research highlights how the disappearance of these social consumption spaces contributes to isolation and loneliness, particularly among older residents who are less integrated into digital social networks. This isolation creates fertile ground for populist messaging that promises to restore a lost sense of community and belonging and creates constituencies receptive to narratives of restoration and blame.

The Geography of Resentment

The spatial distribution of high street vacancies reveals important patterns. Areas experiencing the most visible decline aren't necessarily the poorest regions, but often those undergoing rapid structural transformation as consumption patterns shift online.

Particularly concerning is the persistence of these vacancies. Our data shows that many premises remain empty three years after retail chain collapses, creating lasting changes in community perceptions and political attitudes.

Narrative Exploitation

Populist parties have proven adept at channelling grievances about visible decline into political narratives that blame outsider groups. Ironically, our research shows that immigrants rarely settle in declining areas, yet anti-immigration sentiment often flourishes there.

"Populist politicians exploit local grievances," I noted in a recent interview. "The decline of local journalism creates an information vacuum filled by social media and populist messaging." This narrative exploitation is particularly effective because the causes of high street decline - including technological change, shifting consumption patterns, and global supply chains - are complex and impersonal. Populist narratives offer simpler explanations and identifiable culprits.

Policy Implications

Our findings suggest several potential policy interventions:

• First, ownership structure matters. Areas with less-fragmented commercial real estate ownership appear better equipped to weather structural economic changes. Policy makers should consider incentives for coordinated ownership or management of high street properties.
• Second, digital infrastructure investment could extend the reach of agglomeration economies to declining areas. Remote work opportunities might allow residents to participate in dynamic urban economies while maintaining local community ties, a point I've emphasized in discussions about the potential benefits of population migration to the countryside.
• Third, communities need alternative social consumption spaces. As commercial venues decline, public investment in community centers, libraries, and parks becomes increasingly important.
• Finally, revitalizing local journalism could help counter populist narratives about decline by providing accurate information about local conditions and fostering community dialogue.

Conclusion

The relationship between high street vacancies and populist voting behaviour reveals how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences. Empty storefronts represent more than economic statistics—they are visual signifiers of community transformation that affect residents' sense of place and belonging.

By understanding these connections, we can develop more effective responses to the challenges of structural economic change and the political reactions they provoke. The future of our democratic politics may depend on how we address not just the economic realities of decline, but its visible manifestations in the spaces where community life unfolds."

• Thiemo Fetzer, Jacob Edenhofer, Prashant Garg (2025) Local decline and populism, Economics Letters, Volume 252, 2025, ISSN 0165-1765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112360.

Dani Pearson and Livia Bartok-Partay organised the Warwick Women in Chemistry Roundtable discussion in May, for the fourth time bringing together over 40 students and staff for an afternoon of inspiring discussions.

Jacqui MurrayLink opens in a new window, HVM Catapult Director of South Wales, spoke at the Welsh Affairs CommitteeLink opens in a new window.

“I was delighted to join the Welsh Affairs Committee to talk about investment in Wales and how government and businesses can work together to benefit the economy and local communities. Wales is well-positioned to capitalise on the opportunities in manufacturing. To seize those opportunities, it’s important for government to support skills development (particularly apprentices and degree apprentices), have great planning and permitting services and a pipeline of sites that are ready for investment in strategic areas.

“The High Value Manufacturing Catapult, including Warwick Manufacturing Group, is uniquely situated to support inward investors and help them connect with supply chains, with more than 3,800 specialists across manufacturing. Catapult’s modelling capabilities can help investors deploy the most cutting edge and the most productive manufacturing technologies. Bringing industry knowledge, research, innovation and investment together is key to securing the future of manufacturing in Wales.”

Commenting on the UK-India trade deal, Professor Robin ClarkLink opens in a new window, Dean of WMG, said:

“The UK trade deal with India is very good news for UK manufacturing. The significantly reduced tariffs for advanced manufacturing, automotive and clean energy are particularly welcome, giving UK companies the opportunity to support India's sustainable economic growth, while creating jobs and investment at home.

“WMG, at the University of Warwick, has deep expertise in supporting innovation in the UK and India, with long-standing partnerships with CIILink opens in a new window and major investors such as TataLink opens in a new window and TVS across sectors including automotive, energy and steel, alongside innovation and education collaborations with leading Indian Business and education institutions, delivering positive impact for our regional and national economy. While further details will be announced, we look forward to building on our experience to help firms identify the growth opportunities that will develop as the UK and India work more closely together.”

Published in The Lancet, findings from The Big Baby Trial - co-led by Prof Siobhan Quenby MBE of WMS - show early induction of labour of babies suspected to be large for their age in the womb can reduce complications at birth.

Professor Roger Farmer, Emeritus Professor Michael Waterson and former Dean of Warwick in London Professor Abhinay Muthoo are among the 58 Founding Fellows announced by the Royal Economic Society this week.

The Fellowship is a new initiative from the Royal Economic Society and recognises economists who have made a significant contribution to the discipline and to society beyond academia, in the judgement of an expert panel. The new Fellows are entitled to use FREcon as a postnomial.

Warwick Economics works closely with RES on several initiatives, including the hosting of their flagship event - RES annual conference at Warwick in 2019. Many of our academics, alumni and current students of the Department engage in the work of RES networks like UK Women in Economics Network, Diversity & Inclusion Network and Discover Economics campaign.

Roger Farmer is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick, Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Economics at UCLA and a Visiting Scholar at the University of Virginia. His research examines the connection between market psychology and macroeconomics, and the implications for fiscal policy. He said:

“I am honoured to be nominated as a Founding Fellow of the Royal Economic Society and I look forward to contributing to the success of the organization in the years to come.”

Mike Waterson is Emeritus Professor of Economics at Warwick and was Head of Department of Economics at Warwick between 1999 and 2002. He retired from academia in 2020 but maintains close links with the Department through his involvement with the CAGE research centre. Mike commented:

“I am very pleased to be included in the group of founding fellows of the RES. I have always believed that economics should be applied for the good of society and I have been engaged, over the years, in many diverse policy activities alongside my academic career, particularly in the competition sphere.”

Abhinay Muthoo was Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick until 2022 and Head of the Department of Economics between 2008 and 2016. During his time as Head of Department, CAGE Research Centre was established and the Department affirmed its reputation for research quality in the Research Excellence Framework 2014.

Head of Department Professor Jeremy Smith said:

“Many congratulations to Roger, Mike and Abhinay. It is an indication of the standing of the Department that the RES awards fellowships to 3 individuals who are closely tied to the Department. We look forward to building upon our existing relationship with the RES.”

RES President Prof Sir Chris Pissarides, who chaired the judging panel, said:

“The panel was impressed by the depth and breadth of the applications it considered, with representation from academia, the public and private sectors and those working in schools. Through their applications our new Fellows demonstrated the impact they have made not just in their roles, but to the wider economics profession. We congratulate them and look forward to working with them to advance the RES vision: that economics be understood, advanced and applied for the good of society and the world around us.”

The paper uses biophysical assays to directly visualize and analyse in vitro RNA synthesis carried out by the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). We purified the minimal replication complex, comprising nsp12, nsp7, and nsp8, and combined it with fluorescently labelled RNA substrates, enabling real-time monitoring of RNA primer elongation at the single-molecule level. This platform allowed us to investigate the mechanisms of action of key inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 replication. In particular, our data provides evidence for remdesivir’s mechanism of action, which involves polymerase stalling and subsequent chain termination dependent on the concentration of competing nucleotide triphosphates. Our study demonstrates the power of smFRET to provide dynamic insights into SARS-CoV-2 replication, offering a valuable tool for antiviral screening and mechanistic studies of viral RdRp activity.
Read the paper here.Link opens in a new window