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Predicting conflict using global urban analytics

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The project

This project aims to identify multi-scale population areas that are at risk of conflict. Conflict, or the threat of it, is often caused by contentious interactions between groups. Scientifically, the research utilises the latest developments in complex networks and spatial interaction theory by Sir Alan Wilson to model the effect of multiplexed regional-global interactions.

The Defence and Security sector is increasingly facing a myriad of trans-national and trans-genre conflicts on a global scale, where the patterns in violence and underlying relationships are shifting rapidly. The directly- and indirectly-related data is overwhelming.

Of immediate interest to Defence and Security operations is the ability to automate the identification of future conflict areas (from a region to within a city) for high fidelity analysis and policy/action advice. Of long-term interest is the ability to understand the dominant interaction forces that give rise to conflict.

This work will complement existing Defence and Security intelligent data systems to:

1) automate identification of future conflict areas to improve consistency and reduce expenditure;

2) improve understanding of causal mechanisms by quantifying interaction effects;

3) transform network theory into military actionable tasks.

For more information, please contact the Alan Turing Institute:


Dr Weisi Guo, Associate Professor in Information and Networks,
University of Warwick


Sir Alan Wilson, CEO,
The Alan Turing Institute