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Accelerating progress towards rabies elimination: understanding principles governing effective control strategies
Secondary Supervisor(s): Professor Mike Tildesley
University of Registration: University of Warwick
BBSRC Research Themes:
Project Outline
Every year, thousands of people die and billions of dollars are lost due to rabies spread by domestic dogs. In 2018, quadripartite initiative (WHO, WOAH, FAO, GARC) issued a Global Strategic Plan towards elimination of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. The COVID-19 pandemic has, however, disrupted many existing public health services, leading to a mass resurgence in rabies cases and deaths across the Global South.
In most rabies-affected settings, local elimination is now actively attempted with only short-term results being commonplace. Temporary political commitment, impartial vaccination of dogs, restricted access to healthcare and incomplete surveillance are the main culprits, but their exact interactions can be non-linear. In addition, guidelines for rabies management during the final stages of control programmes are lacking with limited knowledge on disease persistence and human behavioural response as the incidence is reduced to much lower levels. As such, there is an urgent need to localize persisting sources of infection as well as settings at risk, and to delineate behavioural and operational roadblocks hampering effective implementation of control and surveillance programs.
Using spatially and temporally detailed data on rabies incidence and vaccination, the student will develop a series of rabies transmission models fitted to the partially observed case data to identify the epidemiological, sociological and demographic drivers of the disease dynamics, leading to more accurate predictions of rabies spread and insights into the principles of effective interventions. There will be an opportunity for designing a complimentary project using process evaluation to systemically assess the impact of interventions over time and how these can be improved. Such results are anticipated to provide applicable guidelines for decision making in the context of vaccination planning and rabies surveillance to ensure freedom form the disease.