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Modelling interactions between human and livestock movement and tropical disease ecology
Secondary Supervisor(s): Dr Erin Gorsich
University of Registration: University of Warwick
BBSRC Research Themes:
Project Outline
In Africa, nomadic pastoralists commonly move within and between countries, often driven by the impacts of seasonal conditions on water and grazing resources. Herded livestock can include cattle, goats, sheep and camels, with dogs often used for herd protection. This movement, of both humans and animals, poses a demonstrable risk for transmission of zoonotic infections, including rabies, brucellosis and vector-borne diseases such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF), especially as nomadic communities are more likely to have been missed by intervention efforts.
Mechanistic models that describe disease transmission can be used to generate forecasts and inform health policy targets for disease control and elimination. These models often focus on a specific geographic region or area, with limited consideration of interaction between regions. Nomadic pastoralists and their herds acting as potential disease reservoirs or vectors between communities could therefore have a substantial effect on the accuracy of these forecasts.
Topics of interest could include: (i) developing a spatially interacting population model for evaluating the potential influence of pastoral migration on a single infection (e.g. RVF or rabies); (ii) investigating co-infection dynamics for vector-borne diseases in nomadic pastoral populations; (iii) integrating seasonal climate models and movement patterns to consider the changing disease risk landscape, including implications of this for disease monitoring and evaluation.
Whilst this is a largely theoretical project, we expect the research questions to be data-driven and to build on our existing collaborations with national disease programmes, mainly in Africa. Techniques used will depend on the exact project topic, but will include the development of novel statistical and mathematical models, including geospatial models. Depending on the candidate, there may be opportunities to visit with national programme field teams to support data collection.