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Dr Emma Davis

Who am I?

I'm a Royal Society University Research Fellow in Statistics. I use mechanistic models and statistical methods to analyse the dynamics of endemic and emerging diseases, with a particular focus on the surveillance and elimination of vector-borne Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs).

My Research

Interests

  • Infectious disease modelling, validation and forecasting
  • Outbreak detection and response
  • Surveillance methods for vector-borne diseases
  • Neglected tropical diseases
  • Measuring elimination (measuring "zero")

Methods include: stochastic processes, mechanistic modelling, individual-based models and simulation, networks, Bayesian inference, survival models.

Current projects

  1. VECTOR-X: Modelling vector-based surveillance methods for lymphatic filariasis and other neglected tropical diseases. Royal Society University Research Fellowship (2024 – 2032).

    Xeno-monitoring is a surveillance method which uses vector surveys to draw conclusions about host infection levels for vector- borne diseases. This is particularly important when infections are low, where challenges arise from increasingly large sample size requirements and reduced community engagement with surveillance. During this project I aim to develop new data-driven models for the mosquito-transmitted neglected tropical disease (NTD), lymphatic filariasis (LF), which has long been targeted for elimination, to assess the cost-effectiveness of xeno-monitoring for classifying elimination and resurgence.

  2. Translating a cross-border migration model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to country-specific scenarios: 1) the Thailand-Myanmar border and 2) Nomadic migration in Northern Togo. EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2024 - 2025). Research Assistant: Emma Exall.

PhD students

  • Rob Sunnucks. “Adaptive Management for Strategies against NTDs.” MathSys CDT, University of Warwick (2024 – ).
  • Luke Murray-Kearney. “Age-specific representation of social contact networks using egocentric survey data.” MathSys CDT, University of Warwick (2023 – ).
  • Li Pi. “The impacts of heterogeneity in contact behaviours on the dynamics of UK COVID-19 pandemic.” Big Data Institute, University of Oxford (2020 – 2024).

Recent projects

  1. “Linking modelling and policy for lymphatic filariasis elimination surveillance in Bangladesh.”Policy Support Fund, Research England (2023 – 2024). Research Assistant: Jimmy McKendrick.

  2. “Collaborating with national programmes to detect resurgence of the disease lymphatic filariasis in post-elimination settings through mosquito sampling: sensitivity and feasibility.” EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2023). Research Assistant: Melissa Iacovidou.

Photo of Emma Davis

Contact Details

Room MSB 5.24 (5th floor)

Mathematical Sciences Building

University of Warwick, Coventry

CV4 7AL

Email: Emma.L.Davis[at]warwick.ac.uk

My Network

I am a member of the Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology ResearchLink opens in a new window (SBIDER), lead the Infectious Diseases and Modelling themes in the Warwick Centre for Global HealthLink opens in a new window, and sit on the executive committee for CAMaCSLink opens in a new window (Centre for Applications of Mathematical and Computing Sciences). Further afield, I'm a member of the JUNIPER (Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research) Network and have multiple active collaborations with in-country partners and public health programmes.

Engagement activities

I run an outreach YouTube channel, Epi with EmmaLink opens in a new window, and currently lecture online courses in infectious disease epidemiology (University of Oxford).


Publications

2024

  • Vasconcelos, ...,Davis et al. “Accelerating progress towards the 2030 neglected tropical diseases targets: how can quantitative modeling support programmatic decisions?” CID (2024).
  • Davis et al. “An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections.” PLoS Comp Bio (2024).
  • Oliver, ..., Davis et al. “Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.” CID (2024).
  • Iacovidou, Spencer and Davis. “Non-invasive surveillance for vector-borne diseases: using an age-structured feeding cycle model to relate mosquito and human prevalence. [in preparation]. (2024).

2023

  • Davis et al. “A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.” Phil Trans R Soc B (2023).
  • Davis and Hollingsworth. “Estimating LFT and qPCR test sensitivity over time since infection from a human challenge study.” Pre-print: medRxiv (2023).

2022

  • Borlase, Le Rutte, ... andDavis. “Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect impact of COVID-19: a modelling study of programme interruptions for seven neglected tropical diseases.” The Lancet Global Health (2022).
  • Marshall GC, ..., Davis et al. “Public perceptions and interactions with UK COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate policies, and implications for pandemic infectious disease modelling” [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. F1000Research (2022).

2021

  • Davis and Lucas et al. “Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.” Nature Communications (2021).
  • Lucas and Davis et al. “Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2021).
  • Davis, Prada, Reimer and Hollingsworth. “Modelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations.” Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021).
  • Fearon, Buchan, Das, Davis et al. “SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing: weighing the false positives against the costs of failing to control transmission” The Lancet Respiratory Medicine (2021).
  • Crellen, Pi, Davis et al. “Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2021).
  • Prada, Stolk, Davis et al. “Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies.” Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (2021).
  • Toor, ..., Davis et al. “Predicted impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease programmes and the opportunity for innovation.” Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021).
  • Fearon, Davis et al. “A response to ‘Covid-19: government must urgently rethink lateral flow test roll-out’: lateral flow testing in contact tracing.” British Medical Journal (2021).

2020

  • Lucas, Pollington, Davis and Hollingsworth. “Responsible modelling: Unit testing for infectious disease epidemiology.” Epidemics (2020).
  • Group, Isaac Newton Institute Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics. “Recommendations for augmenting contact tracing in the UK: Learning from other diseases.” (2020). URL: http://www.newton.ac.uk/files/preprints/ni20001.pdf
  • Toor, ..., Davis et al. “When, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination.” The Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020): S499-S502.
  • Group, NTD Modelling Consortium. “The potential impact of programmes interruptions due to COVID-19 on 7 neglected tropical diseases: a modelling-based analysis” Gates open research, 4 (2020).
  • Prada and Davis et al. “Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.” The Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020).

pre-2020

  • Davis et al. “Evaluating the evidence for lymphatic filariasis elimination.” Trends in Parasitology (2019).
  • Group, NTD Modelling Consortium Lymphatic Filariasis. “The roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling.” Gates open research, 3 [2 reviewed; 2 accepted] (2019).
  • Group, NTD Modelling Consortium. “Achieving NTD Control, Elimination and Eradication Targets Post-2020 Modelling Perspectives and Priorities.” Gates open research, 3 (2019).
  • Lepper, Prada, Davis, Gunawardena and Hollingsworth. “Complex interactions in soil-transmitted helminth co-infections from a cross-sectional study in Sri Lanka.” Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 112.8 (2018): 397-404.
  • Davis et al. “Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact – an investigation using mathematical models.” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12.1 (2018): e0006195.