Events in MathSys and Complexity Science
This is a calendar page detailing events within the MathSys CDT. It also acts as a booking diary for the Seminar Room D1.07. To book D1.07 please email Sheetal.Sharma@warwick.ac.uk
Please note that your event booking is for D1.07 only. The adjacent common room is a private area for the MathSys Centre that cannot used as part of your booking.
MathSys CDT events have priority for D1.07 room bookings.
Click here to see all seminars taking place in the Mathematics InstituteLink opens in a new window
Click here to see the calendar for SBIDERLink opens in a new window.
MathSys Forum - Prof Flavio Toxvaerd
Silent Spreaders: Behaviour and Equilibrium Under Asymptomatic Infection
This paper analyzes equilibrium social distancing choices in a model with potentially asymptomatic infection. Since infection only prompts symptoms probabilistically, individuals cannot perfectly infer their health state from the absence of symptoms. Instead, they must form beliefs about their health state based on knowledge of the population frequencies. I show that relative to a benchmark with perfect health state information, asymptomatic infection leads to lower mitigation through four distinct channels, some mechanistic and some that work through beliefs and thus decisions. The model is then applied to an analysis of individual and mass testing. The value of the former derives from the value of information and it is shown that the latter may influence the course of the epidemic through its influence on aggregate equilibrium behaviour. Tests for immunity generally have a higher value of information and aggregate effects than tests for infection.
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