Title: Using an Online Interactive Textbook for Content Delivery in a large on-campus Mathematics for Economists course.

The Covid pandemic forced lecturers to rethink the way content is delivered to students. Live online lectures and pre-recorded video recordings became standard tools of synchronous and asynchronous content delivery respectively. Reading materials (textbooks or lecture provided notes) also often supplement the content delivery, but are not usually used as the sole source of new content.

We present summary findings regarding the use of an online, interactive textbook-type resource. This resource combined text-based content delivery with interspersed pre-recorded online videos and questions (with instantaneous feedback to students) to check students’ understanding. This resource was produced for a large Mathematics for Economists unit with 900+ students in the pandemic affected academic years 2020/21 and 2021/22. In the second of these years this resource was used despite on-campus lectures being available again as a tool.

While the online textbook was used to deliver the content asynchronously, there were twice-weekly Review and Q&A sessions in which students could bring up any questions and problems and in which the lecturer would review some of the key concepts introduced in the online lessons.

We present findings on the usage pattern of the resource as well as student feedback. The student feedback presented, leads to the conclusion that, even as on-campus lecture delivery is becoming available again, a future blend of learning activities can include substantial asynchronous content delivery. This flipped classroom setup is attractive as it can create the space in synchronous meetings to focus on active student learning which has proved to contribute positively to learning outcomes (Freeman et al . (2014).

The online textbook allows us to observe patterns of study we cannot normally observe. The amount of time spend on the learning resource and its timing as well as the engagement with the feedback questions allows us to identify some of the study patterns of successful and less successful students.

Organiser: Subhasish Dey

Panel:
Juliette de Wit (University of Groningen)
Melanie Fox (Purdue University)
Miguel Flores (National College of Ireland)

Chair: Cloda Jenkins (Imperial)

Co-organiser: Stefania Paredes Fuentes

to attend on Zoom, register here before Monday 24th October.
The session will be live-streamed on the CTaLE YouTube Channel.

TItle: Brokering Votes with Information Spread via Social Networks (with R Duarte, F Finan, H Larreguy)

Title: Bounds on Average Effects in Discrete Choice Panel Data (joint with Cavit Pakel).

Abstract: Average effects in discrete choice panel data models with individual-specific fixed effects are generally only partially identified in short panels. While consistent estimation of the identified set is possible, it generally requires very large sample sizes, especially when the number of support points of the observed covariates is large, such as when the covariates are continuous. In this paper, we propose estimating outer bounds on the identified set of average effects. Our bounds are easy to construct, converge at the parametric rate, and are computationally simple to obtain even in moderately large samples, independent of whether the covariates are discrete or continuous. We also provide asymptotically valid confidence intervals on the identified set. Simulation studies confirm that our approach works well and is informative in finite samples. We also consider an application to labor force participation.

Title: CBDCs, Financial Inclusion, and Optimal Monetary PolicyLink opens in a new window

Title: Age Set vs. Kin: Culture and Financial Ties in East Africa.

Abstract: We study how social organization shapes patterns of economic interaction and the effects of national policy, focusing on the distinction between age-based and kin-based groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by ethnographic accounts suggesting that this distinction affects redistribution, we ana- lyze a cash transfer program in Kenya and find that in age-based societies there are consumption spillovers within the age cohort, but not the extended family, while in kin-based societies we find the opposite. Next, we document that social structure shapes the impact of policy by showing that Uganda’s pension program had positive effects on child nutrition only in kin-based societies.

Title: What Do Minimum Wages Do? Evidence from Tanzania

Abstract: To what extent do firms in developing countries comply with minimum wage laws, and how do they affect the location decision of workers? Tanzania enacted its first minimum wage law in 2010, which stipulated different levels for each industry. Using novel data from Tanzania's annual census of firms, I find evidence of partial firm compliance, with no disemployment effects. To assess whether minimum wages are important to workers, I use a spatial equilibrium model which exploits variation in average minimum wages across space to determine their location choice. I find an elasticity of migration with respect to expected earnings of one half. This result is driven by changes in the minimum wage for which the direct effect on migration is 3.4 percent. This suggests that variable minimum wage laws can be used to reallocate labor into more productive sectors, even under partial compliance

Title. Weighted representative democracy

Abstract. I will discuss a new system of democratic representation. In this system, any voter can choose any legislator as her representative; thus, different legislators can represent different numbers of voters. Decisions in the legislature are made by weighted majority voting, where the weight of each legislator is determined by the number of voters she represents. In the first part of the talk, I will discuss some joint work with Arnold Soh, in which we show that, if the size of the electorate is very large, then with very high probability, the decisions obtained in the legislature will agree with those which would have been reached by a popular referendum decided by simple majority vote. In the second part of the talk, I will discuss my more recent work on endogenous candidacy in this model (this is work in progress).

Title: Campaigning Against Populism: Emotional and Informational Messaging in Real Campaigns, with Cesi Cruz (UCLA) and Francesco Trebbi (Berkeley)

Title: Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Large Games using Scenarios". This is joint work with Andrin Pelican.

Abstract: This paper introduces a new simulation algorithm for evaluating the

log-likelihood and score functions associated with a class of supermodular
complete information discrete games. The algorithm allows for payoff
function estimation in games with large numbers of players and/or
many binary actions per player (e.g., games with tens of thousands
of strategic binary actions). In such cases the likelihood of the
observed pure strategy combination may be (i) very small and (ii)
a high dimensional integral with a complex integration region. Direct
numerical integration, as well as accept-reject Monte Carlo integration,
are computationally impractical in such settings. In contrast, our
method allows for accurate likelihood simulation with modest numbers
of simulation draws. Use cases include simulated maximum likelihood
(SML) parameter estimation in models of technology adoption, peer
effects, and strategic network formation.

Title: Substitutability Across Modes of Transport: Implications for International Trade

This workshop is hybrid, here is a Teams link . https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_OWE3ZDAyNWYtYTgzMS00NTUxLWI2ZDktMWYxZjFkYjQyZTUy%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2209bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22d235acba-bb89-4eff-a07c-515e0b711c79%22%7d

Title of paper: The Long-Run Development Impacts of Agricultural Productivity Gains: Evidence from Irrigation Canals in India

Abstract: How do investments in agricultural productivity translate into development and structural transformation? We estimate the long-run impacts of India's irrigation canals, which span 300,000+ km and deliver water to 130,000+ villages. Drawing on high-resolution data on every household, firm, village, and town in India, we use three empirical strategies to characterize the direct and spillover effects of large increases in agricultural productivity. Our findings are consistent with a spatial equilibrium model in which labor is mobile, and urban areas have non-farm productivity advantages. In the long run, areas directly treated by canal irrigation have sharply higher agricultural productivity and population density, but similar non-farm employment shares to non-canal areas. Persistent consumption gains accrue only to landowners and structural transformation occurs almost, exclusively through the concentrated growth of regional towns. In the long run, the substantial productivity effects of canals were equilibrated through the movement of labor across space rather than within locations across sectors.

Title: DO ROLE MODELS INCREASE STUDENT HOPE AND EFFORT? EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

Abstract:

This paper offers experimental evidence on the significance of role models on fostering hope, increasing effort and improving the academic performance of primary school students in India. Students from private schools in Jaipur were randomised at an individual level to a treatment or a placebo group. Treated students watch a short film produced in Jaipur, as a part of the experiment. The placebo group students watch a television show for kids, ‘Malgudi Days’. This intervention increases student hope by 0.17 standard deviation (s.d.) and effort by 0.26 s.d. Along with hope, I find significant improvements in students’ self-efficacy or optimism and happiness that are sustained in the medium run. While learning outcomes do not change immediately, the one-off treatment leads to a 0.16 s.d. increase on standardised test scores in English, six-weeks after the intervention with no effect on Mathematics. A cost-effectiveness analysis highlights role models as a promising intervention tool that can have an effect on student motivation and their learning outcomes.

Title:Buying Opinions

 Abstract: A principal hires an agent to acquire soft information about an unknown state. Even though neither how the agent learns (the experiment chosen by the agent) nor what the agent discovers (the realization of the experiment) are contractible, the principal is unconstrained as to what information the agent can be induced to acquire and report honestly. When the agent is risk neutral, and a) is not asked to learn too much, b) can acquire information sufficiently cheaply, or c) can face sufficiently large penalties, the principal can attain the first-best outcome. Risk aversion (by the agent) introduces inefficiencies: the first-best is unattainable, though whether the agent obtains rents depends on whether he may exit to take his outside option after learning.

Title: An Organizational Theory of State Capacity (with Mike Ting, Columbia)

Abstract: A burgeoning literature recognizes that the efficacy of the state is crucial for economic growth and citizen welfare. However, much of that literature abstracts away from the institutional details underlying state capacity. We develop a theory that provides a working definition of state capacity---the ability to handle administrative problems of varying complexity, such as tax collection---and how it is provided and maintained. We conceive of the state as a knowledge hierarchy, or an information-processing institution that passes problems up a set of organizational layers until a layer with the required expertise solves it. Knowledge hierarchies are costly to establish and operate, and politicians differ in policy preferences and public goods valuations. We embed this structure in a simple political economy framework, where politicians may idle parts of the state depending on electoral prospects, thus reducing output. In conjunction with high partisanship, this gives the state designer incentives to distort the state away from efficient levels of capacity and specialization.

Title: Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development

Nonparametric identification of first-price auction with unobserved competition: a density discontinuity framework (joint with Yao Luo (University of Toronto))

Abstract: We consider nonparametric identification of independent private value first-price auction models, in which the analyst only observes winning bids. Our benchmark model assumes an exogenous number of bidders N. We show that, if the bidders observe N, the resulting discontinuities in the winning bid density can be used to identify the distribution of N. The private value distribution can be nonparametrically identified in a second step.

This extends, under testable identification conditions, to the case where N is a number of potential buyers, who bid with some unknown probability. Identification also holds in presence of additive unobserved heterogeneity drawn from some parametric distributions. A last class of extensions deals with cartels which can change size across auctions due to varying bidder cartel membership. Identification still holds if the econometrician observes winner identities and winning bids, provided a (unknown) bidder is always a cartel member. The cartel participation probabilities of other bidders can also be identified. An application to USFS timber auction data illustrates the usefulness of discontinuities to analyze bidder participation.

The paper can be find here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1908.05476.pdf

Title: Domestic Superstars vs. Superstar FDI: Granular Comparative Advantage and Micro Implications

Title: Estimating Large Network Formation

This workshop is hybrid, here is a Teams link . https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_OWE3ZDAyNWYtYTgzMS00NTUxLWI2ZDktMWYxZjFkYjQyZTUy%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2209bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22d235acba-bb89-4eff-a07c-515e0b711c79%22%7d

Title: Female representation and talent allocation in entrepreneurship: the role of early exposure to entrepreneurs

Abstract: Women are highly under-represented in entrepreneurship in all OECD countries, raising concerns both from a gender equality and an aggregate productivity perspective. Using registry data from Denmark, we follow one million individuals from adolescence into adulthood to study whether higher exposure to entrepreneurs during adolescence can improve female representation and talent allocation in entrepreneurship. We exploit within-school, across-cohort variation in adolescents' exposure to entrepreneurship, as measured by the share of their peers whose parents are entrepreneurs during the last years of compulsory schooling. We find that higher exposure to entrepreneurs during adolescence encourages girls' entry and tenure into this profession. The effect is driven by exposure to the parents of female peers and works via a decrease in girls' likelihood to discontinue education at the end of compulsory schooling and to hold low-paying jobs as adults. The increase in female entrepreneurship is associated with the creation of firms that are larger and survive for longer than the average firm, indicating that early exposure improves the allocation of talent in entrepreneurship by reducing women's entry barriers to this profession. Our results suggest that such barriers are both cultural and informational in nature and that raising women's early exposure to entrepreneurship from the 25th to the 75th percentile would increase the total number of jobs created by entrepreneurs by 5.3%.

Title to be advised

Organised by Subhasish Dey

Title: Study design: Can improving teacher’s wellbeing improve student outcomes? Experimental evidence from Jordan

Abstract: Since the onset of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Jordan has been host to one of the largest refugee populations in the world. Although the inflow of refugees has slowed recently, there are concerns that Jordan’s government school system is under considerable stress, limiting its ability to deliver high-quality education. Teachers’ wellbeing is of particular concern since they increasingly manage overcrowded classrooms in double shift schools often with children who have faced severe trauma. In response to these challenges, the Jordanian Ministry of Education is launching a teacher training intervention aimed at improving teacher’s emotional and occupational wellbeing. The present study is an experimental evaluation of this program. The main outcomes of interests are teacher wellbeing, teaching quality, student wellbeing, and student learning. The intervention will be launched in February 2024, with the endline survey planned in June 2024.

Title: Optimal Insurance: Dual Utility, Random Losses and Adverse Selection (joint with Alex Gershkov, Benny Moldovanu and Philipp Strack)

Abstract: We study a generalization of the classical monopoly insurance problem under adverse selection where we allow for a random distribution of losses, possibly correlated with the agent's risk parameter that is private information. Our main purpose is to provide a convenient analytical model that explains both the pattern of observed customer behavior and the pattern of insurance contracts most often observed in practice: these consist of menus of several deductible-premium pairs, or menus of insurance with coverage limits- premium pairs. The main departure from the classical insurance literature is obtained here by endowing the agents with risk-averse preferences that can be represented by a dual utility functional.

Title: The Politicization of Bureaucrats: Evidence from Brazil ​(with Rogerio Santarrosa)

Abstract: In developing countries incumbents commonly exercise political influence over bureaucrats through monitoring or patronage hiring. We investigate a new politicization channel: a phenomenon where bureaucrats join political parties while in office. First, with a regression discontinuity design and administrative data on the universe of Brazilian municipal bureaucrats, we identify an incumbency advantage in their politicization. Second, we find larger effects for a special set of bureaucrats: 55,000 interviewers enrolling households into Bolsa Família (BF). Third, we show that these effects are even stronger for interviewers highly exposed to voters; in municipalities where BF was expanded; and in administrations connected to PT’s federal government, BF’s creator. The Brazilian context and this evidence together suggest that the following logic might drive this politicization: policy‐driven interactions with voters allow bureaucrats to accumulate political capital – either due to good performance or capture – which is converted into rents by joining the incumbent political networks.

Title: (Endogenous) Growth Slowdowns

Abstract: We present a model where temporary shocks can lead to permanent changes in the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The model features matching between basic research and development within an expanding variety semi-endogenous growth model. Search externalities generate vicious and virtuous research cycles. The model has a unique equilibrium path but multiple balanced growth paths (BGPs). After a long-lived or deep financial shock, the economy can transit between these BGPs, generating “super-hysteresis” in TFP. We analyze the model in the context of the Japanese growth slowdown and show that it can explain almost all of the TFP growth decline after the financial crisis in the early 1990s. Demographic shocks combined with a long-lasting financial crisis proved to be the “wretched coincidence” that led to the growth slowdown.

Title: Relaxing Strict Exogeneity in Nonlinear Panel Data Models, joint with Kevin Dano and Bryan Graham

Two workshops:

CWIP 1: 1-2pm, Ben Lockwood - Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold: Evidence for the UK

CWIP 2: 2:15-3:15pm, Wiji Arulampalam - Changing body weight of adolescents in Great Britain: The role of fast-food (Joint work with Yu Aoki & Sushil Mathew).

This workshop is hybrid, here is a Teams link . https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_OWE3ZDAyNWYtYTgzMS00NTUxLWI2ZDktMWYxZjFkYjQyZTUy%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2209bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22d235acba-bb89-4eff-a07c-515e0b711c79%22%7d

Title: Understanding Engagement and Performance of Social Mobility Students

Speaker: Lory Barile, Neil Lloyd and Ramkumar Govindaswamy

Abstract: One of the guiding principles to inclusive education is to improve participation and outcomes for all students and ensure that all students are able to achieve their potential. Effective data monitoring is key to this and to ensure that change is transformative and sustained. This study extends the existing literature on ‘mobilities in Higher Education ’ by looking at the extent to which Economics students from social mobility backgrounds at the University of Warwick engage and perform within their programme of studies. The paper will provide a contribution to the literature by:

1) Analysing the relationship between student engagement and performance using a Revealed Preferences Approach and considering a) how students’ characteristics (e.g., socioeconomic and pre-university performance) affect students’ (online and in-person) engagement and b) how this links to students’ performance.

2) Investigating how different types of assessments (e.g., MCQ, Essays, Group tasks) impact engagement and performance.

Organised by Subhasish Dey