Complexity Forum: Lorenzo Pellis (Warwick)
Speaker: Lorenzo Pellis (Warwick)
Title: Epidemic models in socially structured populations
I will start by describing the basic concepts and simplest approaches to the field of deterministic and stochastic models for epidemics. I will then add some social structure (age-stratification, households, etc.) in order to make the models slightly more realistic, but still retaining some analytical traction. Finally, I will briefly sketch some of the more applied problems I have been working on, which include comparing school closure strategies to limit the impact of an influenza pandemic and comparing different models to identify which one should be used in which context to strike the correct balance between simplicity and prediction accuracy.
Lunch group: 3