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Professor Kat Rock


Kat Rock

 Office: MSB 5:11
Phone: +44 (0)24 76150255
Email: K dot S dot Rock at warwick dot ac dot uk

Teaching Responsibilities 2022/23:

Term 2: MA4M1 Epidemiology by Example

Personal Homepage:

Research Interests:

Themes: Mathematical Biology, Epidemiology

Techniques: ODEs, PDEs, stochastic models, branching processes, numerical simulation, Bayesian model fitting

I am a mathematical epidemiologist interested in population-level disease dynamics. I have a particular interest in vector-borne transmission and neglected tropical diseases. I am keen on developing new modelling approaches and theory as well as answering highly focused applied research questions which can aid in the control or elimination of diseases, particularly in low-income settings.

I currently research and develop models for the vector-borne disease human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), more commonly known as sleeping sickness. I lead a research project, HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP), which aims to inform strategic decision-making around strategies for the elimination of HAT, and is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Under this project an international, multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers and economists work together with other researchers and national programmes to assess local elimination strategies, and provide cost-effectiveness analyses.

I formerly worked as part of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium. Using novel mathematical models fitted to human case data from various endemic foci, my aim on the project was to assess the likelihood that the World Health Organization's goals of elimination as a public health problem by 2020 and elimination of transmission by 2030 would be met for this disease. I have also evaluated the relative effectiveness of complimentary strategies in addition to typical medical interventions such as vector control, improved passive screening and targeting high-risk groups in screening.

Some of the other diseases I have worked on are:

- Visceral leishmaniasis
- Avian malaria in the Hawaiian honeycreeper

Most relevant recent publications:

  1. C Huang, R E Crump, P Brown, S E F Spencer, E Mwamba Miaka, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Identifying target regions for enhanced control in DRC using modelling projections”. Nature Communications 13, 1448 (2022)
  2. M Antillon, C Huang, R E Crump, P E Brown, R Snijders, E Mwamba Miaka, K S Rock* and F Tedisoi*. “Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. Nature Communications 13, 1051 (2022) *equal contribution from two senior authors
  3. K S Rock, C Huang, R E Crump, P R Bessell, P E Brown, I Tirados, P Solano, M Antillon, A Picado, S Mbainda, J Darnas, E H Crowley, S Torr, M Peka. "Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad". Infectious Diseases of Poverty (2022). 
  4. M Antillon, Ching-I Huang, K S Rock*, F Tediosi*. “The economic premium for elimination in the face of uncertainty: An extension to the net benefits framework and an application to human African trypanosomiasis end-game programs”. PNAS (2021) 118 (50) e2026797118 *equal contribution from senior authors
  5. C N Davis, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages using Kolmogorov forward equations”. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2021)
  6. M Aliee, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness”. PLoS Computational Biology (2021)
  7. C N Davis, M S Castaño, M Aliee, S Patel, E M Miaka, M J Keeling, S E F Spencer, N Chitnis, K S Rock. “Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data”. Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021)
  8. M Aliee, M S Castaño, C N Davis, S Patel, E M Miaka, S E F Spencer, M J Keeling, N Chitnis, K S Rock. “Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (2021)
  9. C N Davis, K S Rock, E Mwamba Miaka, M J Keeling. “Optimising active screening for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis”. BMC Medicine (2021).
  10. R E Crump, C Huang, E Knock, S E F Spencer, P Brown, E Mwamba Miaka, S Chancy, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo”. PLOS Computational Biology (2021).


  • Warwick Maths Colloquium (14th January 2022) "Cost-effective disease elimination? Modelling to guide tailored intervention strategies against African sleeping sickness"
  • T&L Seminar (9th December 2021) "Alternative approaches to assessment and learning in Maths"
  • HAT MEPP "Direction Setting Meeting" (June and July 2021). Held online by University of Warwick
  • Africa sleeping sickness meeting (March 2017). Held at the University of Warwick

Recent research grants:

  • HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP 2) with Matt Keeling, Jason Madan, Simon Spencer and Louise Dyson Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2020-2024)
  • Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium with Matt Keeling, Simon Spencer and Orin Courtney, Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2017-2021)
  • HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP) with Matt Keeling, Jason Madan, Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2017-2021)