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Professor Kat Rock


Kat Rock

 Office: MSB 5:11
Phone: +44 (0)24 76150255
Email: K dot S dot Rock at warwick dot ac dot uk

Teaching Responsibilities 2022/23:

Term 2: MA4M1 Epidemiology by Example

Personal Homepage:

Research Interests:

Themes: Mathematical Biology, Epidemiology

Techniques: ODEs, stochastic models, numerical simulation, Bayesian model fitting, health economic evaluations, PDEs, branching processes

I am a mathematical epidemiologist interested in population-level disease dynamics. I have a particular interest in vector-borne transmission and neglected tropical diseases. I am keen on developing new modelling approaches and theory as well as answering highly focused applied research questions which can aid in the control or elimination of diseases, particularly in low-income settings.

I currently research and develop models for the vector-borne disease human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), more commonly known as sleeping sickness. I lead a research project, HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP), which aims to inform strategic decision-making around strategies for the elimination of HAT, and is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Under this project, an international, multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers and economists work together with other researchers and national programmes to assess local elimination strategies and provide cost-effectiveness analyses.

I formerly worked as part of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium. Using novel mathematical models fitted to human case data from various endemic foci, my aim on the project was to assess the likelihood that the World Health Organization's goals of elimination as a public health problem by 2020 and elimination of transmission by 2030 would be met for this disease. I have also evaluated the relative effectiveness of complementary strategies in addition to typical medical interventions such as vector control, improved passive screening and targeting high-risk groups in screening.

Some of the other diseases I have worked on are:

- Zika
- Malaria
- Visceral leishmaniasis
- Avian malaria in the Hawaiian honeycreeper

Most relevant recent publications:

  1. C N Davis, R Crump, S A Sutherland, S E F Spencer, A Corbella, C Shampa, J Lebuki, E M Miaka, K S Rock. “Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC”. PLoS Computational Biology (2024)
  2. K S Rock, L A C Chapman, A P Dobson, E R Adams, T D Hollingsworth. “The hidden hand of asymptomatic infection hinders control of neglected tropical diseases”. Accepted in Clinical Infectious Diseases (2024) and pre-printed in MedRxiv
  3. D Kaba, M Koffi, L Kouakou, E K N’Gouan, V Djohan, F Courtin, M K N’Djetchi, B Coulibaly, D Berté, B T D Ta, M Koné, S A Sutherland, R E Crump, C Huang, J Madan, P Bessell, P Solano, K S Rock, V Jamonneau. “Towards the sustainable elimination of human African trypanosomiasis in Côte d’Ivoire using an integrated approach”. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2023) 17(7): e0011514
  4. M Antillon, C Huang, S A Sutherland, R E Crump, P R Bessell, A P Shaw, P Solano, I Tirados, A Picado, S Biéler, P E Brown, S Mbainda, J Darnas, X Wang-Steverding, E H Crowley, M Peka, F Tediosi, K S Rock. “Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad”. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2023) 17(7): e0011396
  5. C Huang, R E Crump, E H Crowley, A Hope, P R Bessell, C Shampa, E M Miaka, K S Rock. “A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC”. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2023) 17(4): e0011299
  6. M A Iacovidou, P Barreaux, M B Thomas, E G Gorsich, K S Rock. “Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets”. PLoS Computational Biology (2022) 18(9): e1009540
  7. C Huang, R E Crump, P Brown, S E F Spencer, E Mwamba Miaka, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Identifying target regions for enhanced control in DRC using modelling projections”. Nature Communications 13, 1448 (2022)
  8. R E Crump, C Huang, S E F Spencer, P E Brown, E M Miaka, S Chancy, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in DRC”. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2022) 16(7): e0010599
  9. M Antillon, C Huang, R E Crump, P E Brown, R Snijders, E Mwamba Miaka, K S Rock and F Tedisoi. “Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. Nature Communications 13, 1051 (2022) 
  10. K S Rock, C Huang, R E Crump, P R Bessell, P E Brown, I Tirados, P Solano, M Antillon, A Picado, S Mbainda, J Darnas, E H Crowley, S Torr, M Peka. "Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad". Infectious Diseases of Poverty (2022). 
  11. M Antillon, Ching-I Huang, K S Rock, F Tediosi. “The economic premium for elimination in the face of uncertainty: An extension to the net benefits framework and an application to human African trypanosomiasis end-game programs”. PNAS (2021) 118 (50) e2026797118 
  12. C N Davis, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages using Kolmogorov forward equations”. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2021)


  • Warwick Maths Colloquium (14th January 2022) "Cost-effective disease elimination? Modelling to guide tailored intervention strategies against African sleeping sickness"
  • T&L Seminar (9th December 2021) "Alternative approaches to assessment and learning in Maths"
  • HAT MEPP "Direction Setting Meeting" (June and July 2021). Held online by the University of Warwick
  • Africa sleeping sickness meeting (March 2017). Held at the University of Warwick

Recent research grants:

  • HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP 2) with Matt Keeling, Jason Madan, Simon Spencer and Louise Dyson Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2020-2024)
  • Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium with Matt Keeling, Simon Spencer and Orin Courtney, Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2017-2021)
  • HAT Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP) with Matt Keeling, Jason Madan, Funded by: Gates Foundation, (2017-2021)