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Prof Matt Keeling

Matt Keeling OBE

Joint appointment with Maths & Life Sciences

Director of Zeeman Inst. (SBIDER)
Co-Director of JUNIPER partnership
Deputy Director MathSys CDT

Office: Mathematical Sciences Bld 5.17

Phone: +44 (0)24 7652 4618
Email: M dot J dot Keeling at warwick dot ac dot uk


Teaching Responsibilities 2023/24:

One World Health LF307. Moodle

Immunology and Epidemiology LF211. Moodle

Topics in Mathematical Modelling MA999 (MathSys MSc)

Research Interests:

My research is focused on the use of mathematics (including statistics and computational methods) to answer a range of real world problems. This links to my general interest in using science to better inform policy. In this capacity, I have been a member of SPI-M since 2008 (including the H1N1 'swine-flu' outbreak and the COVID-19 pandemic), I was a full member of JCVI from 2010 to 2022 and retain membership of various subcommittees, and from 2023 I have been a member of NERVTAG.

A substantial amount of my work focuses on epidemiology and the control of infectious diseases; although I continue to be interested in general problems in evolution and ecology. My work develops mechanistic models that capture the important elements of a problem, and express these mechanisms through differential equations or computer simulation. Where this connects with real world problems and data, there is considerable statistical machinary needed to match model output to data.

Much of my recent work has focused on the COVID-19 outbreak (see SBIDER's COVID pages), where the results of our modelling was used by SPI-MO, SAGE and JCVI to help inform policy advice. Main highlights of the work are: the regular estimation of R (the reproductive number) throughout the pandemic; the science behind the need for short-term circuit breakers; the invasion and spread of new variants; the control of the pandemic by vaccination (including the benefit of a delay between first and second doses, the need for combined NPIs and vaccination, and the implications for global vaccine sharing); the road-maps to relaxation (projecting the dynamics throughout 2021 as control measures were relaxed). I was awarded an OBE for this input into SPI-MO and SAGE, and was part of the SPI-MO team that won the presidigous Weldon prize.

Other areas of work include:
Epidemiology: Optimal control of infection, cost-effective vaccination and policy-relevant prediction (often as part of the MEMVIE project which provides advice to DHSC and JCVI). I have also worked on a number of infectious diseases, and have continuing interests in all of these:|
In humans: COVID-19; Measles; Whooping Cough; (seasonal and pandemic) Influenza; Pneumococcal infection; Neglected Tropical Diseases (including HAT and schistosomiasis); Sexually transmitted infections (including HPV and MPox);
In livestock and wildlife: Foot-and-mouth disease (including involvement in the 2001 & 2009 outbreaks); Avian influenza; Bovine tuberculosis; pests, predators and diseases of honey bees; trichomoniasis in British finches.
Evolution: Disease evolution, host response to infection (bringing in immuno-epidemiology).
Ecology: Interactions between wildlife and disease, spatial habit-use, sea-grass dynamics, quantifying process from pattern.
Development of novel techniques: Pair-wise correlation models for spatial/social networks; Moment-closure approximations for stochastic systems; Meta-population models as an approximation for spatial structure; Kolmorgorov Forward Equations to capture stochasticity; Vector dynamics and Climate change .

For more information on my research and that of my group see the Combatting Diseases pages in SBIDER.

Weldon Prize to SPI-MO (2022)
OBE for services to SAGE during the COVID-19 outbreak (2021)
Royal Zoological Society of London, Scientific Medal (2007)
Philip Leverhulme Prize in Mathematics (2005)

Current/Recent Advisory Memberships.
NERVTAG (2023-)
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for Dept of Health (2010-2022, subpanel membership continues)
Editor, Epidemics (2007-2023)
BBSRC Animal Disease Working Group (2012-2015)
Royal Society’s International Networks Committee (2007-2014)
Scientific Pandemic Infection advisory group (Modelling), for Dept Health. (2009- ).

Publications. H-index 74, Total Citations >25,000. Publications on google scholar

Selected Recent and Major Publications. (click for a full publication list)

  1. Brand, S.P.C. et al (2023) The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom. Nature Communications. 14 4100
  2. Cavallaro, M., Moran, E., Collyer, B., McCarthy, N.D., Green, C. & Keeling M.J. (2023) Informing antimicrobial stewardship with explainable AI. PLoS Digital Health. 2 e0000162
  3. Keeling, M.J., Moore, S., Penman, B.S. & Hill, E.M. (2023) The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England. Nature Communications. 14 740.
  4. Keeling, M.J., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M.J., Hill, E.M. & Moore, S. (2022) Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England. Nature Communications. 13 4924.
  5. Moore, S. Hill, E.M., Tildesley, M.J., Dyson, L. & Keeling M.J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 21 (6), 793-802
  6. Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S., Antillón, M., Miaka, E.M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMC medicine 19 (1), 1-18
  7. Brand, S.P.C. et al (2021) COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science 374 989-994
  8. Möhlmann, T.W.R., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Favia, G., Santman-Berends, I., Takken, W., Koenraadt, C.J.M., & Brand, S.P.C. (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports 11 (1), 1-16
  9. Aliee, M., Rock, K.S. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches. Roy. Soc. Interface 17 (173), 20200540
  10. Leng, T. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Improving pairwise approximations for network models with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Theo. Biol. 500, 110328
  11. Moran, E., Robinson, E., Green, C., Keeling, M. & Collyer, B. (2020) Towards personalized guidelines: using machine-learning algorithms to guide antimicrobial selection. Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 75 (9), 2677-2680
  12. Tennant, W.S.D., Tildesley, M.J., Spencer, S.E.F. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Roy. Soc. B 287 (1928), 20200538
  13. Datta, S., Pink, J., Medley, G.F., Petrou, S., Staniszewska, S., Underwood, M., Sonnenberg, P. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK. BMC Infectious Diseases. 19 552
  14. Keeling, M.J., Datta, S., Franklin, D.N., Flatman, I., Wattam, A., Brown, M. & Budge, G.E. (2017) Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Roy. Soc. Interface 14 20160908
  15. Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-
  16. Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70
  17. Savill, N., St. Rose, S., Keeling, M., Woolhouse, M. 2006 Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry. Nature 442 757-757
  18. Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. 2006 Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440 83-86.
  19. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G. and Grenfell, B.T. 2003 Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot and Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142
  20. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilsmith, J. and Grenfell, B.T. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape Science 294 813-817
  21. Keeling, M.J. and Gilligan, C.A. 2000 Metapopulation Dynamics of Bubonic Plague. Nature 407, 903-906
  22. Keeling, M.J., Wilson, H.B. and Pacala, S.W. 2000 Re-interpreting space, time-lags and functional responses in ecological models. Science 290, 1758-176

Further publications

Recent & Current Research grants:
MRC JUNIPER (Joint UNIversity Pandemic and Epidemic Research) Partnership Apr 2023-Mar 2028
NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data April 2020-Oct 2025
NIHR Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation 3 Apr 2023-Mar 2026
EPSRC Mathematics for Real-World Systems II, Centre for Doctoral Training. Sept 2019 - Aug 2027
NIHR Global Health Research Group on the Application of Genomics and Modelling to the Control of Virus Pathogens (GeMVi) in East Africa. Apr 2018-Mar 2023
BMGF Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HATMEPP) Oct 2017-Sept 2025

For more information and further publications see SBIDER homepage or his Expertise profile