Extreme Space Weather: Modeling Rare Solar Storms and Their Impacts on Earth
This is a fully-funded 4-year PhD position based in the HetSys Centre for Doctoral Training at the University of Warwick.
Project outline
Space weather is driven by eruptions of plasma from the Sun’s surface called coronal mass ejections.
Upon arrival at Earth, these not only extend the northern and southern lights to low latitudes but can knock out satellites, communications and entire power grids. Extreme events with low return periods are especially important for power plants where 1 in 10,000 year risk levels are required to be mitigated for.
Through collaboration with EDF Energy’s Natural Hazards R&D Team, this project will utilise and develop state-of-the-art space simulations to probe past, present and future events to constrain extreme value distributions spanning hundreds to thousands of years.
Supervisors
Primary: Dr Ravindra Desai (Physics)
Dr Tobias Grafke (Maths)
Project Partner: EDF Energy
Extreme events in 1989 and 2003 knocked out power to the whole of Quebec, and caused electrical anomalies in over 50% of satellites in orbit, respectively.
The project aims to investigate extreme space weather events and their impacts on Earth’s technological systems. It will use historical events, stretching back to the early 1800s, alongside modern observations, to constrain state-of-the-art Sun-to-Earth simulations and reproduce key signatures of severe geomagnetic storms, such as the May 2024 event that produced auroras across the UK and down to the Canary Islands.
By combining these simulations with extreme value analysis and large deviation theory, the project seeks to quantify how energy flows through the solar-terrestrial system and its sub-systems scale with increasing event severity. Ultimately, the research aims to improve risk assessments for rare, high-impact space weather events, providing insights that can inform mitigation strategies for critical infrastructure.
This project will develop advanced star-planet simulation codes to investigate extreme space weather events, reproducing both historical and contemporary geomagnetic storms. Their work will generate high-fidelity models of solar eruptions and their impacts on Earth’s magnetosphere, enabling quantitative extreme value analyses to estimate return periods for rare, high-impact events.
By integrating historical observations with state-of-the-art simulations, the student will develop new theories and techniques to explore the scaling of energy flows through the solar-terrestrial system. Comparative studies with events such as the May 2024 super storm will validate the models and improve predictive capabilities.
The project is expected to produce publications and reports, offering new insights into extreme space weather and supporting national stakeholders through partnership with EDF R&D and also other partners who we work closely with such as the MET Office and Nagoya University, Japan.
The student will gain advanced computational and modelling skills by developing and running state-of-the-art Sun-to-Earth space weather simulations.
They will acquire expertise in extreme value analysis, large deviation theory, and handling historical and observational datasets, building strong quantitative and analytical capabilities. Software development and data visualization will enhance their technical portfolio, while critical evaluation of model outputs will strengthen problem-solving and scientific reasoning skills.
Collaborative work with industry and research partners will develop communication, project management, and interdisciplinary teamwork abilities, complementing HetSys training and equipping the student with highly transferable skills relevant to careers in academia, space science, energy, and risk analysis.
These skills position you for careers in AI research, computational materials science, national laboratories, tech industry or academic research. The HetSys training provides a foundation for these skills through dedicated courses and cohort activities.
[1]UK National Risk Register, 2023
[2]Hayakawa et al., 2023b, ApJ, 959, 23
[3]Desai+ 2020, Sol. Phys. 295, 130
[4]Bergin & Chapman 2023, Space Weather, 21
[5]Grafke et al., 2024, Comm. Pure Appl. Math., 77
[6]Watson-Parris, 2021, Phil Trans. R. Soc. A.37920200098
We require at least a II(i) honours degree at BSc or an integrated masters degree (e.g. MPhys, MChem, MSci, MEng etc.) in a physical sciences, mathematics or engineering discipline. We do not accept applications from existing PhD holders.
If you are an overseas candidate please check here that you hold the equivalent grades before applying.
For postgraduate study in HetSys, the term “overseas” or “international” student refers to anyone who does not qualify for UK home fee status. This includes applicants from the European Union (EU), European Economic Area (EEA), and Switzerland, unless they hold settled or pre-settled status under the UK’s EU Settlement Scheme.
If you are a European applicant without UK residency or immigration status that qualifies you for home fees, you will be classified as an overseas student.