Publications

Peer-reviewed publications during my independent research career:

1. S Thévenon, M Gonzatti, M Desquesnes, G Cecchi, A M G Barreaux, M Bouchier, G Gimonneau, L Hébert, V Lejon, L J Morrison, L Neves, K S Rock, A Sazmand, A P M Shaw, P Solano, A Boulangé. “Main gaps in knowledge and tools that constrain the sustainable control of vector-transmissible animal trypanosomoses”. Accepted in BMC Veterinary Research.

2. M Antillon, C Huang, S A Sutherland, R E Crump, R Snijders, P E. Brown, A Hope, P Bessell, I Tirados, M J Keeling, C Shampa, J Lebuki, E M Miaka, F Tediosi, K S Rock. “Cost-effectiveness analysis of end-game strategies against sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo”. PLoS NTD (2026).

3. J Looker, K S Rock, L Dyson. “Critical-like growth in noncritical transitions: Linearized dynamics and epidemic applications”. Physical Review E (2026).

4. C Huang, M Antillon, R E Crump, S A Sutherland, P R Bessell, A Mugenyi, R Selby, P E C Brown, B Hooley, A Hope, S Dunkley, R Sunnucks, S J Torr, F Tediosi, J Ndung’u, E H Crowley, E Kidega, C Wamboga, K S Rock. “Transmission and health economic modelling to estimate the progress towards elimination and future strategy effectiveness for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda”. BMC Infectious Diseases (2026).

5. R Sunnucks, E L Davis, K S Rock. “Methods for Reproducible Comparison of Strategies in Stochastic Modelling”. Interface (2026).

6. S A Sutherland, J M Madan, K S Rock. “Measuring elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: A comparison of deceptively different metrics”. Parasites & Vectors 19, no. 1 (2026): 8.

7. J Looker, K S Rock, L Dyson. “Identifying COVID-19 peaks using early warning signals”. PLoS Computational Biology 21, no. 9 (2025): e1013524

8. R E Crump, M Aliee, S A Sutherland, C Huang, E H Crowley, S E F Spencer, E M Miaka, C Shampa, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Estimating timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the DRC accounting for possible cryptic human and animal infection: A modelling study”. Parasites & Vectors 17 (2024)

9. C N Davis, R Crump, S A Sutherland, S E F Spencer, A Corbella, C Shampa, J Lebuki, E M Miaka, K S Rock. “Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC”. PLoS Comput. Biol. (2024)

10. K S Rock, L A C Chapman, A P Dobson, E R Adams, T D Hollingsworth. “The hidden hand of asymptomatic infection hinders control of neglected tropical diseases”. Clin. Infect. Dis. (2024) Volume 78, S175–S182

11. A Vasconcelos, J D King, C Nunes-Alves, R Anderson, D Argaw, M-G Basáñez, S Bilal, D J Blok, S Blumberg, A Borlase, O J Brady, R Browning, N Chitnis, L E Coffeng, E H Crowley, Z M Cucunubá, D A T Cummings, C N Davis, E L Davis, M Dixon, A Dobson, L Dyson, Michael French, C Fronterre, E Giorgi, C Huang, S Jain, A James, S H Kim, K Kura, A Lucianez, M Marks, P S Mbabazi, G F Medley, E Michael, A Montresor, N Mutono, T S Mwangi, K S Rock, M-I Saboyá-Díaz, M Sasanami, M Schwehm, S E F Spencer, A Srivathsan, R S Stawski, W A Stolk, S A Sutherland, L-A Tchuem Tchuenté, S J de Vlas, M Walker, S J Brooker, T D Hollingsworth, A W Solomon, I Socé Fall. "Accelerating progress towards the 2030 neglected tropical diseases targets: how can quantitative modeling support programmatic decisions?" Clinical Infectious Diseases 78, no. Supplement_2 (2024): S83-S92.

12. D Kaba, M Koffi, L Kouakou, E K N’Gouan, V Djohan, F Courtin, M K N’Djetchi, B Coulibaly, D Berté, B T D Ta, M Koné, S A Sutherland, R E Crump, C Huang, J Madan, P Bessell, P Solano, K S Rock*, V Jamonneau*. “Towards the sustainable elimination of human African trypanosomiasis in Côte d’Ivoire using an integrated approach”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. (2023)17(7): e0011514

13. M Antillon, C Huang, S A Sutherland, R E Crump, P R Bessell, A P Shaw, P Solano, I Tirados, A Picado, S Biéler, P E Brown, S Mbainda, J Darnas, X Wang-Steverding, E H Crowley, M Peka, F Tediosi, K S Rock. “Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad”. PLoS Neg. Trop. Dis. (2023) 17(7): e0011396

14. C Huang, R E Crump, E H Crowley, A Hope, P R Bessell, C Shampa, E M Miaka, K S Rock. “A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. (2023) 17(4): e0011299

15. A Borlase, E A Le Rutte, S Castaño, D J Blok, J Toor, NTD Modelling Consortium [including K S Rock], F Giardina, E L Davis. “Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect impact of COVID-19: a modelling study of programme interruptions for seven neglected tropical diseases”. Lancet Glob. Health (2022) 10(11), e1600-e1611.

16. M A Iacovidou, P Barreaux, M B Thomas, E G Gorsich, K S Rock. “Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets”. PLoS Comp. Biol. (2022)18(9):e1009540

17. R E Crump, C Huang, S E F Spencer, P E Brown, E M Miaka, S Chancy, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in DRC”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. (2022) 16(7): e0010599

18. J Clark, W A Stock, M-G Basañez, L E Coffeng, Z M Cucunubá, M Dixon, L Dyson, K Hampson, M Marks, G Medley, T M Pollington, J M Prada, K S Rock, H Salje, J Toor, T D Hollingsworth. “How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases” [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Gates Open Res. (2022), 5:112

19. C Huang, R E Crump, P Brown, S E F Spencer, E Mwamba Miaka, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Identifying target regions for enhanced control in DRC using modelling projections”. Nat. Commun. (2022) 13, 1448

20. M Antillon, C Huang, R E Crump, P E Brown, R Snijders, E Mwamba Miaka, K S Rock* and F Tedisoi*. “Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. Nat. Commun. (2022) 13, 1051

21. K S Rock, C Huang, R E Crump, P R Bessell, P E Brown, I Tirados, P Solano, M Antillon, A Picado, S Mbainda, J Darnas, E H Crowley, S J Torr, M Peka. “Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad”. Infect. Dis. Poverty (2022) 11 (11)

22. M Antillon, Ching-I Huang, K S Rock*, F Tediosi*. “The economic premium for elimination in the face of uncertainty: An extension to the net benefits framework and an application to human African trypanosomiasis end-game programs”. PNAS (2021) 118 (50) e2026797118

23. C N Davis, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages using Kolmogorov forward equations”. J. R. Soc. Interface (2021)18:20210419

24. M Aliee, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness”. PLoS Comp. Biol. (2021) 17(9): e1009367

25. C N Davis, M S Castaño, M Aliee, S Patel, E M Miaka, M J Keeling, S E F Spencer, N Chitnis, K S Rock. “Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data”. Clin. Infect. Dis. (2021); ciab190,

26. M Aliee, M S Castaño, C N Davis, S Patel, E M Miaka, S E F Spencer, M J Keeling, N Chitnis, K S Rock. “Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. Trans. R. Soc. of Trop. Med. Hyg.(2021),Volume 115, Issue 3, Pages 245–252

27. C N Davis, K S Rock, E Mwamba Miaka, M J Keeling. “Optimising active screening for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis”. BMC Med. (2021) 19, 86.

28. R E Crump, C Huang, E Knock, S E F Spencer, P Brown, E Mwamba Miaka, S Chancy, M J Keeling, K S Rock. “Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo”. PLoS Comp. Biol. (2021) 17(1): e1008532.

29. M Aliee, K S Rock, M J Keeling. “Estimating the time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches”. J. R. Soc. Interface (2020)

30. J Toor, E R Adams, M Aliee, B Amoah, R M Anderson, D Ayabina, R Bailey, M-G Basáñez, D J Blok, S Blumberg, A Borlase, R C Rivera, M S Castaño, N Chitnis, L E Coffeng, R E Crump, A Das, C N Davis, E L Davis, M S Deiner, P J Diggle, C Fronterre, F Giardina, E Giorgi, M Graham, J I D Hamley, C Huang, K Kura, T M Lietman, T C D Lucas, V Malizia, G F Medley, A Meeyai, E Michael, T C Porco, J M Prada, K S Rock, E A Le Rutte, M E Smith, S E F Spencer, W A Stolk, P Touloupou, A Vasconcelos, C Vegvari, S J de Vlas, M Walker, T D Hollingsworth. “Predicted impact of COVID-19 on neglected tropical disease programs and the opportunity of innovation”. Clin. Infect. Dis. (2020), ciaa933

31. M Geerts, N Van Reet, S Leyten, R Berghmans, K S Rock, T H T Coetzer, L E-A Eyssen, P Büscher. “Trypanosoma brucei gambiense-iELISA: a promising new test for the post-elimination monitoring of human African trypanosomiasis”. Clin. Infect. Dis. (2020), ciaa1264,

32. C N Davis, K S Rock, M J Keeling. “Human African trypanosomiasis: current status and eradication efforts.” CAB Reviews, 2020 15, 028 pp1-11

33. S English, A M G Barreaux, M B Bonsall, J W Hargrove, M J Keeling, K S Rock, G A Vale. “Incorporating vector ecology and life history into disease transmission models: insights from tsetse (Glossina spp.)” Chapter in Population Biology of Vector-Borne Diseases. OUP (2019).

34. S Castaño*, M L Ndeffo-Mbah*, K S Rock*, C Palmer*, E Knock, E M Miaka, J M Ndung’u, S J Torr, P Verlé, S E F Spencer, A Galvani, C Bever, M J Keeling, N Chitnis. “Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC)”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. (2020) 14, no. 1: e0007976

35. M S Castaño, M Aliee, E M Miaka, M J Keeling, N Chitnis, K S Rock. “Screening strategies for a sustainable endpoint for gambiense sleeping sickness”. J. Infect. Dis. (2020) 221, no. Supplement_5: S539-S545

36. NTD Modelling Consortium Discussion Group on Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (K S Rock, R E Crump, C Davis, M S Castaño, M Antillon, C Huang, M Aliee, F Tediosi, N Chitnis, M J Keeling). “Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goal for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT)” [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Gates Open Res. (2019), 3:1553

37. C N Davis, K S Rock, E M Miaka, M J Keeling. “Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 13.10 (2019): e0007838

38. K S Rock, M L Ndeffo-Mbah, S Castano, C Palmer, A Pandey, K E Atkins, J M Ndung’u, T D Hollingsworth, A Galvani, C Bever, N Chitnis, M J Keeling. “Assessing strategies against gambiense sleeping sickness through mathematical modelling”. Clinical Infectious Diseases (2018), 66(suppl_4), pp.S286-S292

39. P Büscher, J-M Bart, M Boelaert, B Bucheton, G Cecchi, N Chitnis, D Courtin, L M Figueiredo, J-R Franco, P Grébaut, E Hasker, H Ilboudo, V Jamonneau, M Koffi, V Lejon, A MacLeod, J Masumu, E Matovu, R Mattioli, H Noyes, A Picado, K S Rock, B Rotureau, G Simo, S Thevenon, S Trindade, P Truc, N Van Reet. “Cryptic human and animal reservoirs: a threat to the elimination of gambiense-human African trypanosomiasis?” Trends Parasitol. (2018), 34(3), pp.197-207.

40. M H Mahamat, M Peka, J-B Rayaisse, K S Rock, M A Toko, J Darnas, G M Brahim, A B Alkatib, W Yoni, I Tirados, F Courtin, S P C Brand, C Nersy, I O Alfaroukh, S J Torr, M J Lehane, P Solano. “Adding tsetse control to medical activities allows a decrease in transmission of sleeping sickness in the Mandoul focus (Chad)”. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11.7 (2017): e0005792.

Other peer-reviewed publications:

41. K S Rock, A Pandey, M Ndeffo-Mbah, K Atkins, C Lumbala, A Galvani, M J Keeling. “Data-Driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC”. Epidemics (2017): 18, 101-112.

42. K S Rock, S J Torr, C Lumbala and M J Keeling. “Predicting the impact of intervention strategies for sleeping sickness in two high-endemicity health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo”. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11.1 (2017): e0005162.

43. K S Rock, R J Quinnell, G F Medley, O Courtenay. “Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis”. Advances in Parasitology 97 (2016): 49-131.

44. H Nishiura, K Mizumoto, K S Rock, Y Yasuda, R Kinoshita and Miyamatsu Y. “A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection”. Epidemics (2016): 15, 66-70.

45. S Brand, K S Rock and M J Keeling. “The interaction between vector life history and short vector life in vector-borne disease transmission and control”. PLoS Computational Biology 12.4 (2016): e1004837.

46. T D Hollingsworth, E R Adams, R M Anderson, K Atkins, S Bartsch, M-G Basáñez, M Behrend, D J Blok, L A C Chapman, L Coffeng, O Courtenay, R E Crump, S J De Vlas, A Dobson, L Dyson, H Farkas, A P Galvani, M Gambhir, D Gurarie, M A Irvine, S Jervis, M J Keeling, L Kelly-Hope, C King, B Y Lee, E A Le Rutte, T M Lietman, M Ndeffo-Mbah, G F Medley, E Michael, A Pandey, J K Peterson, A Pinsent, T C Porco, J H Richardus, L Reimer, K S Rock, B K Singh, W Stolk, S Swaminathan, S J Torr, J Townsend, J Truscott, M Walker, A Zoueva. "Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases." Parasites & Vectors 8.1 (2015): 630.

47. K S Rock, S J Torr, C Lumbala and M J Keeling. "Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo." Parasites & Vectors 8.1 (2015): 532.

48. K S Rock, D A Wood and M J Keeling. “Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.” Epidemics (2015): 12, 20-29.

49. K S Rock, E A le Rutte, S J de Vlas, E R Adams, G F Medley and T D Hollingsworth. “Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis.” Trends in Parasitology (2015), 251-259.

50. K S Rock, C M Stone, I M Hastings, M J Keeling, S J Torr and N Chitnis. “Mathematical Models of Human African Trypanosomiasis Epidemiology.” Advances in Parasitology 87 (2015): 53-133.

51. K S Rock, S Brand, J Moir and M J Keeling. “Dynamics of Infectious Diseases.” Reports on Progress in Physics 77(2) (2014): 026602.

52. K S Rock, M J Keeling and D A Wood. “Modelling the Future of the Hawaiian Honeycreeper: an Ecological and Epidemiological Problem.” Ecological Modelling 235 (2012): 26-35.

Pre-printed:

53. M Kagabadouno, R E Crump, S A Sutherland, R Sunnucks, O Camara, C Huang, M B Diallo, M Camara, F Béavogui, D Camara, K Allain, P E C Brown, A Diaby, B Bucheton, P R Bessell, E H Crowley, J-M Bart, K S Rock*, M Camara*. “Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea”. Pre-printed in MedRxiv *Equal senior contribution

54. J Looker, K S Rock, L Dyson. “The covariance matrix of metapopulation disease models and applications to early warning signals”. Preprinted at MedRxiv

55. R Sunnucks, I Tirados, E M Miaka, E L Davis, K S Rock. “Can non-routine data collection help decision-making for gambiense sleeping sickness? Using active adaptive management to assess the potential of vector control”. Preprinted at MedRxiv