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Mon 26 Feb, '24
-
Economic History Seminar - Jonathan Chapman (UoBologna)
S2.79

Title: Justices of the Peace: Legal Foundations of the Industrial Revolution

Mon 26 Feb, '24
-
Econometrics - Morten Orregaard Nielsen (Aarhus)
S2.79

Title: Inference on common trends in functional time series

The paper and abstract can be found here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.00590

Tue 27 Feb, '24
-
MIEW (Macro/International Economics Workshop) - Andrea Guerrieri D'Amati
S2.79

Andrea will present a project he has been working on with Gavin Hassall

Title: Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy.

Abstract : This paper explores how the language used in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes relates to future monetary policy and impacts financial markets. We construct a measure of future-oriented language using a Structural Topic Model combined with a Large Language Model. Regressing stock market reactions on the share of future-oriented language for each topic shows that increased discussion of GDP and monetary policy in the future tense associates with stock price increases. This suggests forward-looking communication provides valuable signals to investors about central bank intentions. The results demonstrate subtle variations in central bank communications can sway expectations and risk assessments, which highlights the importance of thoughtful transparency practices when conveying policy deliberations to the public. 

Tue 27 Feb, '24
-
CWIP (CAGE Work in Progress) - Ao Wang (Warwick)
S2.79

Title: An Empirical Model of Bilateral Bargaining with Vertical Information Frictions (with Hugh Molina - INRAE).

Tue 27 Feb, '24
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics and Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Pedro Carneiro (UCL)
S2.79

Title: Interactions: Teacher Behaviors and Child Development in Elementary School (with Campos, Cruz-Aguayo, Echeverri and Schady)

Wed 28 Feb, '24
-
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Matt Olczak & Chris Wilson
S0.13

Title: Class Experiments - F2F, Online, Synchronous? A Case Study Comparison 

Class experiments have been shown to aid student learning. Traditionally, these were conducted with paper and pen. However, platforms have subsequently been developed to enable them to be run online. Among other advantages, this allows the possibility of conducting class experiment in a remote, asynchronous format with potential benefits for students and instructors. However, there is little evidence on how this asynchronous approach compares to other delivery formats. To address this, our paper provides novel case-study evidence on the effectiveness of delivery format for class experiments. As part of our presentation, we will also offer provide practical, step-by-step guidance of how to adapt a classroom experiment for asynchronous, remote delivery.

 

Wed 28 Feb, '24
-
CAGE-AMES Workshop - Immanuel Feld (PGR, Warwick)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Wed 28 Feb, '24
-
CRETA Seminar - Matthew Elliott (Cambridge)
S2.79
Thu 29 Feb, '24
-
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Stephane Wolton (LSE)
S2.79

Title: In or Out? Xenophobic Violence and Immigrant Integration. Evidence from 19th century France (Joint with Mathilde Emeriau at Sciences Po)

Thu 29 Feb, '24
-
Macro/International Seminar - Fabian Eckert (UCSD)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Mon 4 Mar, '24
-
Economic History Seminar - Amanda Gregg (Middlebury College)
S2.79

Title: Shareholder Democracy under Autocracy: Voting Rights and Corporate Performance in Imperial Russia, co-authored with Amy Dayton (Strider Technologies) and Steven Nafziger (Williams College)

Abstract: This paper investigates how the rules that corporations wrote for themselves related to their financing and performance in an environment characterized by poor investor protections, Imperial Russia. We present new data on detailed governance provisions from Imperial Russian corporate charters, which we connect to a comprehensive panel database of corporate balance sheets from 1899 to 1914. We document how variation in votes per share and other shareholder rights provisions were related to corporate choices of using debt vs. equity and whether these governance provisions correlated systematically with performance measures on the balance sheet and in terms of the market-to-book ratio. This investigation reveals the tradeoffs weighed by Imperial Russian corporations and demonstrates the surprising flexibility that Russian corporations enjoyed, conditional on obtaining a corporate charter.

Mon 4 Mar, '24
-
Econometrics - Xun Tang (Rice)
S2.79

Title: Social Networks with Misclassified Links (joint w Arthur Lewbel and Xi Qu).

Abstract. We propose an adjusted 2SLS estimator for social network models when the links reported in samples are subject to two-sided misclassification errors (due, e.g., to recall errors by survey respondents, or lapses in data input). In a feasible structural form, misclassified links make all covariates endogenous and add a new source of correlation between the structural errors and endogenous peer outcomes (in addition to simultaneity), thus invalidating conventional estimators used in the literature. We resolve these issues by adjusting endogenous peer outcomes with estimates of the misclassification rates and constructing new instruments that exploit properties of the noisy network measures. We apply our method to study peer effects in household decisions to participate in a microfinance program in Indian villages. We find that ignoring the issue of link specification and applying conventional instruments would result in an upward bias in peer effect estimates.

Tue 5 Mar, '24
-
MIEW (Macro/International Economics Workshop) - Alessandro Villa (Chicago Fed)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Tue 5 Mar, '24
-
CWIP (CAGE Work in Progress) - Eric Renault (Warwick)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Tue 5 Mar, '24
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics and Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Paul Niehaus (UCSD)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Wed 6 Mar, '24
-
CAGE-AMES Workshop - Jinlin Wei (PGR, Warwick)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Wed 6 Mar, '24
-
CRETA Seminar - Omer Tamuz (Caltech)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Thu 7 Mar, '24
-
PEPE Seminar - Milena Djourelova (Cornell)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Thu 7 Mar, '24
-
Macro/International Seminar - Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Fri 8 Mar, '24 - Sun 10 Mar, '24
9am - 2pm
CRETA Conference

Runs from Friday, March 08 to Sunday, March 10.

Hosted by Herakles Polemarchakis

Mon 11 Mar, '24
-
Econometrics Seminar - Jordi Llorens Terrazas (Surrey)
S2.79

Title (provisional): An Oracle Inequality for Multivariate Dynamic Quantile Forecasting

Abstract: I derive an oracle inequality for a family of possibly misspecified multivariate conditional autoregressive quantile models. The family includes standard specifications for (nonlinear) quantile prediction proposed in the literature. This inequality is used to establish that the predictor that minimizes the in-sample average check loss achieves the best out-of-sample performance within its class at a near optimal rate, even when the model is fully misspecified. An empirical application to backtesting global Growth-at-Risk shows that a combination of the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic model and the vector autoregression for Value-at-Risk performs best out-of-sample in terms of the check loss.

Link: An Oracle Inequality for Multivariate Dynamic Quantile Forecasting by Jordi Llorens-Terrazas :: SSRN

Tue 12 Mar, '24
-
MIEW (Macro/International Economics Workshop) - Amedeo Andriollo (PGR)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Tue 12 Mar, '24
-
CWIP (CAGE Work in Progress) - Nikhil Datta (Warwick)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Tue 12 Mar, '24
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics and Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Roland Rathelot (ENSAE)
S2.79
Wed 13 Mar, '24
-
CAGE-AMES Workshop - Carmen Villa (PGR, Warwick)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Wed 13 Mar, '24
-
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Paul Middleditch (Manchester)
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Nudged Engagement and Student Learning Outcomes

Wed 13 Mar, '24
-
CRETA Seminar - Roberto Serrano (Brown)
S2.79

Title: Mediated (Anti)Persuasive Communication

Thu 14 Mar, '24
-
PEPE Seminar - Lena Song (UIUC)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Thu 14 Mar, '24
-
Macro/International Seminar - Marta Morazzoni (UCL)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Tue 23 Apr, '24
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Gordon Dahl (UCSD)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

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