Title: Dissecting Structural Change in an Open Economy.

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Abstract -- This paper studies the role of trade and international borrowing in driving structural change. I decompose the change in manufacturing shares into contributions by sectoral expenditure shares, trade shares, and aggregate trade imbalances, and map these into structural primitives in a quantitative trade model with endogenous borrowing. Using data from twenty economies, I show that trade specialization and international borrowing explain 34% of the average change in the manufacturing share, half of the cross-country heterogeneity in the patterns of industrialization, half the dynamics in high-technology subsectors of manufacturing, and much of the China-driven deindustrialization and ‘miracle’ industrialization in South Korea.