Title: National Road Upgrading and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Ugandan Households (with Ian Herzog and Siyuan Liu)
Abstract: Structural transformation, typically characterized by labor transitioning from agriculture to a diverse industrial economy, has been slow in Sub-Saharan Africa. Even though the region is urbanizing, a significant portion of the urban population continues to depend on agriculture. We argue that this is because smaller cities are isolated from national markets and trade. We test this claim using granular individual panel data and Uganda's doubling of paved roads, which improved remote areas' market access. We find that market access causes workers to quit family farms and take specialized paid work. Effects concentrate in peripheral areas, households with a comparative advantage in off-farm work and reflect off-farm opportunities rather than reduced demand for farm output. In addition, market access causes remote households to simplify farming techniques and scale back farming. Findings are consistent with reliable transport allowing trade with urban areas, creating opportunities to specialize according to individual comparative advantage.