Title: Divorce Expectation, Human Capital, and Life Cycle of Female Labor Supply

Abstract: There is a puzzle in economics and sociology that Black women have a higher labor supply than white women in the US. This paper shows the gap is driven by married Black women with high wages returning to work quickly after childbirth. I develop a life cycle model of female labor supply, human capital, consumption, and savings with marriage uncertainty. The structural model demonstrates that Black women stay in the workforce to maintain human capital and hedge against marital instability. Furthermore, this paper shows structural estimates of human capital depreciation in the labor literature are likely biased without sample selection correction for exclusive restriction.

Title: Minimum Wage, Marriage, and Fertility

Abstract: Exploiting state-varying minimum wage in the US from 1975 to 2016, this paper shows the causal effect of minimum wage on marriage, divorce, and fertility. An increase in state minimum wage by 1 dollar significantly increases the marriage rate by 0.6 percentage points, reduces the divorce rate by 0.4 percentage points, and increases the fertility rate by 0.5 percentage points. I develop an equilibrium life cycle model of marriage, fertility, labor supply, and consumption to decompose the causal effects by complementarity in leisure time among partners, and substitutability in child production. This paper demonstrates that labor market policy has significant spillovers on the marriage market.