Title: Gravity of Violence

Title: Dealing with Adversity: Religiosity or Science? Evidence from the Great Influenza Pandemic, co-authored with E.Berkes, D.Coluccia, and G Dossi.
Abstract: How do societies respond to adversity? After a negative shock, separate strands of research document either an increase in religiosity or a boost in innovation efforts. In this paper, we show that both reactions can occur at the same time, driven by different individuals within society. The setting of our study is the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in the United States. To measure religiosity, we construct a novel indicator based on naming patterns of newborns. We measure innovation through the universe of granted patents. Exploiting plausibly exogenous county-level variation in exposure to the pandemic, we provide evidence that more-affected counties become both more religious and more innovative. Looking within counties, we uncover heterogeneous responses: individuals from more religious backgrounds further embrace religion, while those from less religious backgrounds become more likely to choose a scientific occupation. Facing adversity widens the distance in religiosity between science-oriented individuals and the rest of the population, and it increases the polarization of religious beliefs.

Title: Testing Inequalities Linear in Nuisance Parameters (with Gregory Cox and Yuya Shimizu) at the econometrics seminar.

 Abstract- This paper proposes a new test for inequalities that are linear in possibly partially

identified nuisance parameters, called the generalized conditional chi-squared (GCC)

test. It extends the subvector conditional chi-squared (sCC) test in Cox and Shi (2023,

CS23) to a setting where the nuisance parameter is pre-multiplied by an unknown

and estimable matrix of coefficients. Properly accounting for the estimation noise in

this matrix while maintaining the simplicity of the sCC test is the main innovation

of this paper. [How? New variance formula? Rank condition?] As such, the paper

provides a simple solution to a broad set of problems including subvector inference for

models represented by linear programs, nonparametric instrumental variable models

with discrete regressor and instruments, and linear unconditional moment inequality

models. We also derive a simplified formula for computing the critical value that makes

the computation of the GCC test elementary.

Title to be advised.

Title to be advised.

Title: Pushing the Envelope: A Field Experiment in Negotiations (with Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson)

What role does negotiation play in the job market for professionals? Does it affect the allocation of labor and split of surplus? In a field experiment with over 3,000 mid-career professionals actively seeking offers, we establish new facts about how people negotiate and the causal impact of negotiation on employment terms. We use experimental results and detailed offer data to propose a model of portfolio bargaining.

There will be two presentations:

1: Lily Shevchenko - Title: Does cancel culture work? Evidence from Reddit

Abstract: How well can platforms police user behaviour? We look at the popular social media site, Reddit, where a mass ban of toxic communities occurred in response to a change in the site's conduct policy. We aim to see how the users of these communities changed their behaviour after the ban, as well as at the impact on the platform as a whole.

2. Benjamin Koch - Title: Smart or Corrupt? Informed Trading in the U.S. Congress

Abstract: U.S. Committee members enjoy an information privilege in regard to emerging regulations due to their role in shaping legislation. This privilege allows for a better prediction of a company’s future profit. If a politician indeed capitalizes on this privilege by trading affected stock, it would constitute an abuse of office in violation of ethical and legal standards. The identification of information-conflicted trades is not straightforward. Committee members often have prior expertise in the industry the committee is supposed to oversee, and working on the committee further enhances their expertise. To tackle these issues, I link stock transaction records of politicians with information on congressional committees, bills, and stock prices of affected firms. First, I compare Congress members’ portfolio returns before and after they join committees in a difference-in-differences framework, differentiating between committee-associated and -unassociated sub-portfolios. I then contrast the change in returns when Congress members join and leave committees for each sub-portfolio. Second, I use public relevations of milestones of bills and examine the frequency and timing of a politician’s transactions anticipating stock price reactions. My novel approaches contribute to the public and academic debates on how politicians can privately benefit from public office and on the prevalence of insider trading by politicians.

Title: Dynamic Concern for Misspecification

Abstract: We consider an agent who posits a set of probabilistic models for the

payoff-relevant outcomes. The agent has a prior over this set but fears the
actual model is omitted and hedges against this possibility. The concern for
misspecification is endogenous: If a model explains the previous
observations well, the concern attenuates. We show that different static
preferences under uncertainty (subjective expected utility, maxmin, robust
control) arise in the long run, depending on how quickly the agent becomes
unsatisfied with unexplained evidence and whether they are misspecified. The
misspecification concern's endogeneity naturally induces behavior cycles,
and we characterize the limit action frequency. This model is consistent
with the evidence on monetary policy cycles and choices in the face of
complex tax schedules.

Title: More powerful Difference-in-difference (co-authored with my student Yang Ning).

Title: Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates (with Marguerite Obolensky, Charles A Taylor)..