• Recent research papers

These papers are available as Adobe Acrobat pdf (PDF) files.

• TWERP 953 Real-time forecasting with Autoregressive Models in the presence of data revisions (2010). With Ana B. Galvão. Forthcoming in the Journal of Applied Econometrics.

• TWERP 954 Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts? (2010). An updated version of this paper is now available as Characterising how surveys of US macrovariables add value. (May 2012)

•  Improving real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends with multiple-vintage models. (2011) With Ana B. Galvão. Queen Mary, University of London Working Paper 678. Forthcoming in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

• TWERP 976. Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation. (2012).

• Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both? (2012). With Jennifer L. Castle and David F. Hendry. (April 2012 version, Oxford University Working Paper) Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics.

• TWERP 986. US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010 (2012).
• TWERP 995. Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth (Sept. 2012)