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Full List of Peer-Reviewed Articles

· "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect? ", Economic Journal, forthcoming 2008 +

· "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis", European Economic Review, forthcoming 2008 +

· "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis", Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming 2007 +

· "Regional Vulnerability: the Case of East Asia", Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming 2007 +

· "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 10, 1359-1359, 2006

· "A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe", Journal of International Money and Finance, 26, 149-165, 2006 +

· "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates", Journal of Business, 79, 1193-1224, 2006 +

· "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity and the Theory of General Relativity: The First Tests", Journal of International Money and Finance, 24, 293-316, 2005+

· "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention as a Coordinating Signal in the Dollar-Yen Market", Pacific Economic Review, 10, 1, 73-82, 2005

· "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 4, Fall 2004 +

· "The Impact of European Central Bank Governing Council Announcements on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Microstructural Analysis", Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, 1043-51, 2004 +

· "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets;International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 51, 257-275, 2004+
"Financial Predictors of Real Activity and the Financial Accelerator", Economics Letters, 82, 167-72, 2004 +

· "Nonlinear Dynamics in the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study", Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, 1-25, 2004 +

· "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?", Economica, 71, 1-12, 2004
"Nonlinear Permanent-Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance", Economic Journal, 113, 125-39, 2003 +

· "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond", Journal of International Economics, 60, 61-83, 2003 +

· "The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States," International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 50, 373-402, 2003 +

· "Purchasing Power Parity", Review of International Economics, 11, 436-52, 2003
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics, 60, 85-107,
2003 +

· "Nonlinear Equilibrium Correction in US Real Money Balances, 1869-1997", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35, 787-99, 2003 +

· "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 49, pp. 65-105, 2002 +

· "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks", Southern Economic Journal, 69, 345-62, 2002 +

· "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Inter-War Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34, 51-75, 2002 +

· "The Stock Return-Inflation Puzzle Revisited", Economics Letters, 75, 147-56, 2002+
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective and, If So, How Does it Work?" Journal of Economic Literature , 39, 839-68, 2001 +

· "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles", International Economic Review, 42, 1015-1042, 2001 +

· "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 5, 1-25, 2001+

· "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio", Economic Inquiry, 39, 524-36, 2001+

· "On the Mean-Reverting Properties of Target Zone Exchange Rates: A Cautionary Note", Economics Letters, 71, 117-29, 2001+

· "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, 201-16, 2001+

· "Purchasing Power Parity Over Two Centuries: Strengthening the Case for Real Exchange Rate Stability", Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 759-64, 2000+
"Non-linear Adjustment, Long Run Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Fundamentals" Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 33-53, 2000+

· "Measuring the Temporary Component of Stock Prices: Robust Multivariate Analysis." Economics Letters, 67, 193-200, 2000+

· "Private Consumption Behaviour, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation in France: A Nonlinear Analysis", Empirical Economics, 25, 351-68, 2000+

· "Hot Money, Accounting Labels and the Persistence of Capital Flows to Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics, 59, 337-64, 1999+ "Moral Hazard, Asset Price Bubbles, Capital Flows, and the East Asian Crisis: The First Tests", Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 637-57, 1999+

· "Composantes Permanente et Transitoire de l’Epargne et de l’Investissement: Une Etude Empirique des Flux Internationaux de Capitaux au Japon", Economie et Prévision, 1999
"Estimating Growth Equations in Previously Centrally Planned Economies: Dealing with Dirty Data and Disparate Information." Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 639-72, 1999+

· "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean-Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?" Economic Journal, 109, 96-110, 1999+

· "European Capital Flows and Regional Risk", ManchesterSchool, 67, 21-38, 1999+
"The Behavior of Real Exchange Rates During the Post Bretton Woods Period", Journal of International Economics, 46, 281-312, 1998+

· "Periodically Collapsing Stock Price Bubbles", Economics Letters, 61, 221-228, 1998+
"The Effects of Regulation and Regulatory Uncertainty in the UKElectricity Distribution Industry", Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 69, 331-346, 1998+

· "Exchange Controls, International Capital Flows and Savings-Investment Correlations in the UK: An Empirical Investigation", Review of World Economics, 134, 42-68, 1998+
"Savings-Investment Correlations: Temporary Versus Permanent", ManchesterSchool, 66, 17-38, 1998+

· "Real Exchange Rates Under the Recent Float: Unequivocal Evidence of Mean Reversion", Economics Letters, 60, 131-137, 1998+

· "The Slope of the Yield Curve and Real Economic Activity: Tracing the Transmission Mechanism", Economics Letters, 59, 353-360, 1998+

· "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints, and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behaviour in the UK", Journal of Macroeconomics, 20, 221-42, 1998+
"Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Problem of Power and Sample Size", Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 945-54, 1997+

· "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants", World Bank Economic Review, 11, 451-70, 1997+

· "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors", Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 353-361,1997+

· "Ajustement Non-Linéaire Vers le Taux de Change d’Équilibre à Long Terme: Le Modèle Monétaire Revisité", Revue Économique, 48, 653-659, 1997+

· "Estimating the Mean-Reverting Component in Stock Prices: A Cross-Country Comparison", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 44, 566-82,1997+

· "Regulatory Uncertainty and the Volatility of Regional Electricity Company Share Prices: The Economic Consequences of Professor Littlechild", Bulletin of Economic Research, 37-46, 1997+

· "Real Exchange Rate Behaviour: the Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries", Journal of Political Economy, 104, 488-509, 1996+

· "Prévision du Taux de Change Dollar Canadien Contre Dollar Américain: Une Approche en Termes de Fondamentaux", Économie et Prévision, 2, 45-52, 1996

· "Misalignment, Debt Accumulation and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates", National Institute Economic Review, 153, 73-83, 1995+

· "Sand in the Wheels of International Finance: A Sceptical View", Economic Journal, 105, 173-80, 1995+

· "Exchange Rates, Country Preferences and Gold", Applied Financial Economics, 5, 121-31, 1995+

· "The Economics of Exchange Rates", Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 13-47, 1995
"Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity", Review of Economics and Statistics, 77, 321-31, 1995 +

· "Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Failed Partnership or Open Marriage?" Review of Economic Issues, 17, 1-42, 1995

· "Re-Examining the Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: The Dollar-French Franc, 1976-90", Applied Financial Economics, 4, 423-30, 1994+

· "The Stabilizing Influence of the EMS on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Some Non-Parametric Tests", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 41, 123-48, 1994+

· "On the Reinterpretation of Money Demand Regressions", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 26, 851-66, 1994

· "The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Short?Run Dynamics, and How to Beat a Random Walk", Journal of International Money and Finance, 13, 276-90, 1994+

· "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long?Run Equilibrium and Forecasting", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 40, 89-107, 1993+
"Modelling the Demand for UK Broad Money, 1871-1913", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 112-7, 1993

· "Analyzing Credibility in High?Inflation Countries: A New Approach", Economic Journal, 103, 329-36, 1993+

· "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 32-7, 1993+

· "The Causality Between Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Rates in Developing Countries", Applied Financial Economics, 3, 255-66, 1993+

· "Fiscal Policy within Common Currency Areas", Journal of Common Market Studies, 31, 29-44, 1993+

· "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long?Run Relationships and Short?Run Dynamics", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 1993+

· "Money Demand and Inflation in Yugoslavia, 1980?89", Journal of Macroeconomics, 15, 455-82, 1993+

· "Testing for Credibility Effects", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 39, 545?571, 1992+

· "The Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate in the 1920s: Purchasing Power Parity and the Norman Conquest of $4.86", Applied Economics, 24, 803-811, 1992

· "A Stable US Money Demand Function, 1874?1975", Economics Letters, 39, 191-198, 1992+

· "Modelling the Yield Curve", Economic Journal, 102, 524-537, May 1992
"Common Currency Areas and Currency Unions: An Analysis of the Issues II", Journal of International and Comparative Economics, 1, 265-294, 1992+

· "Common Currency Areas and Currency Unions: An Analysis of the Issues I", Journal of International and Comparative Economics, 1, 231-250, 1992+ "The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market", Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 304-314, 1992+

· "Why Don't Individuals Speculate in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market?" Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 39, 1-13, 1992+

· "The Monetary Dynamics of Sustained High Inflation: Taiwan 1945-49", Southern Economic Journal, 58, 610-22, 1992+

· "Modelling the Demand for Money: Backward-Looking and Forward-Looking Models", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 60, 1-22, 1992+

· "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 39, 1-57, 1992+

· "Risk, Efficiency and Speculation in the 1920s Foreign Exchange Market: An Overlapping Data Analysis", Review of World Economics, 127, 500-23, 1991+

· The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships and Coefficient Restrictions", Economics Letters, 37, 179-85, 1991+

· "An Empirical Examination of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity as a Theory of International Commodity Arbitrage", Applied Economics, 23, 1749-60, 1991+

· "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23, 327-51, 1991

· "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence and the European Monetary System", Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 553-58, 1990+

· "Money Demand, Expectations and the Forward?Looking Model", Journal of Policy Modeling, 12, 289-315, 1990+

· "On Unit Roots and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence and Monte Carlo Analysis", Applied Economics, 22, 1311-21, 1990

· "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the Foreign Exchange Market", Economic Journal, 100, 49-59, 1990+

· "Modelling Risk in the Interwar Foreign Exchange Market", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 37, 3, 241-258, 1990+

· "Ex Ante Purchasing Power Parity: Some Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions in the Time Domain", Empirical Economics, 15, 77-91, 1990

· "Some Efficient Tests of Real Interest Rate Parity", Applied Economics, 22, 1083-92, 1990+

· "The Case of the Missing Money and the Lucas Critique", Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, 437-454, 1990+

· "The Term Structure of Forward Foreign Exchange Premia: The Interwar Experience", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 58, 54-65, 1990+

· "Modelling Risk Premia in Commodity Forward Prices: Some Evidence from the London Metal Exchange", Review of Futures Markets, 8, 200-221, 1989+

· "Abolishing Exchange Control: The UKExperience", Greek Economic Review, 11, 19-48, 1989+

· "Charts and Fundamentals: A Study of the LondonForeign Exchange Market", Review of Futures Markets, 8, 288-325, 1989 +"El Sistema Monetario Europeo, Controles de Capital y El Area Financarea Europea: Un Examen Retrospectivo y Prospectivo", Revista de Economia, 117-128, November 1989+

· "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence", Economic Journal, 99, 376-391, 1989

· "The Internationalization of Stock Markets and the Abolition of UKExchange Control", Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 332-6, 1989+

· "International Parity Conditions: Some New Evidence", Bulletin of Economic Research, 41, 255-71, 1989+

· "Modelling Asset Prices with Time-Varying Betas", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 57, 340-56, 1989+

· "Vector Autoregressive Tests of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity with Allowance for Conditional Heteroscedasticity", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 36, 238-52, 1989
"The Achievements of the European Monetary System", Economic and Social Review, 20, 121-145, 1989+

· "Chart Analysis and the Foreign Exchange Market", Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 29, 548-551, November 1989+

· "Random Walk Components in Output and Exchange Rates: Some Robust Tests on UKData", Bulletin of Economic and Social Research, 41, 123-35, 1989+ "Anticipated and Unanticipated Variables in the Demand for M1 in the UK", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 37, 319-39, 1989+

· "Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Evidence Based on Survey Data", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 57, 142-53, 1989

· "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency and Cointegration: Some Evidence from the Recent Float", Economics Letters, 29, 63-68, 1989

· "International Parity Conditions", Greek Economic Review, 11, 257-90, 1989
"Rational Expectations, Risk and Efficiency in the London Metal Exchange: An Empirical Analysis", Applied Economics, 21, 143-53, 1989+

· "Monetary Anticipations and the Demand for Money in the US: Further Results", Southern Economic Journal, 55, 326-335, 1988+

· "Alternative Scale Variables in the Demand for Money in the US", CyprusJournal of Economics,1, 102-110, 1988

· "A DYMAMIC Model of Forward Foreign Exchange Risk, with Estimates for Three Major Exchange Rates", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 56, 55-68, 1988
"An Empirical Analysis of Long?Run Purchasing Power Parity Using Cointegration Techniques", Applied Economics, 20, 1369-1381, 1988

· "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the London Metal Exchange", OxfordBulletin of Economics and Statistics, 50, 41-52, 1988+

· "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity in the 1920s", European Economic Review, 32, 179-197, 1988+

· "What do Investment Managers Know? An Empirical Analysis of Practitioners" Predictions", Economica, 55, 185-202, 1988

· "Metals Prices, Efficiency and Cointegration: Some Evidence from the London Metal Exchange", Bulletin of Economic Research, 40, 235-329, 1988+

· "Learning and Rationality: An Empirical Analysis of Investment Managers' Stock Market Predictions", Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 8, 43-57, 1988

· "On Granger Causality and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments", Journal of Macroeconomics, 9, 239-254, 1987

· "Risk Premia and Foreign Exchange: A Multiple Time Series Approach to Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity", Review of World Economics, 123, 579-591, 1987

· "Monetary Anticipations and the Demand for Money: Some UKEvidence", Review of World Economics, 123, 509-520, 1987+

· "The Role of Speculation in the Forward Exchange Market: Some Consistent Estimates Assuming Rational Expectations", OxfordBulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49, 323-333, 1987

· "Financial Innovation, Inflation, and the Stability of the Demand for Broad Money in the UK", Bulletin of Economic Research, 39, 225-23, 1987

· "Testing the Exogeneity Specification Underlying the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: Some UK Evidence", Applied Economics, 19, 651-662, 1987

· "Covered Interest Parity: A High?Frequency, High?Quality Data Study", Economica, 54, 429-438, 1987

· "The Simple Analytics of Implicit Labour Contracts", Bulletin of Economic Research, 39, 1-28, 1987

· "On Long-Run Solutions to Dynamic Econometric Equations Under Rational Expectations", Economic Journal, 97, 215-218, 1987

· "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic, Rational Expectations Model", Economic Journal, 97, 65-76, 1987

· "From the General to the Specific: The Demand for M2 in Three European Countries", Empirical Economics, 11, 243-261, 1986

· "A Varying-Parameter Empirical Model of Balance of Payments Determination Under Fixed Exchange Rates", Applied Economics, 18, 67-582, 1986

· "Testing the Rationality of Buffer Stock Money", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1, 335-356, 1986+

· "The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: A Critical Appraisal of Some Empirical Evidence", OxfordBulletin of Economics and Statistics, 46, 329-340, 1986+

· + denotes co-authored paper