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Professor Mark P Taylor: Selected Peer-Reviewed Articles

· "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect? ", Economic Journal, forthcoming 2008 +

· "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis", European Economic Review, forthcoming 2008 +

· "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis", Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming 2007 +

· "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 10, 1359-1359, 2006

· "Regional Vulnerability: the Case of East Asia", Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming 2007 +

· "A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe", Journal of International Money and Finance, 26, 149-165, 2006 +

· "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates", Journal of Business, 79, 1193-1224, 2006 +

· "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity and the Theory of General Relativity: The First Tests", Journal of International Money and Finance, 24, 293-316, 2005 +

· "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 135-158, Fall 2004 +

· "The Impact of European Central Bank Governing Council Announcements on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Microstructural Analysis", Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, 1043-51, 2004 +

· "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 51, 257-275, 2004

· "Nonlinear Dynamics in the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study", Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, 1-25, 2004 +

· "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?", Economica, 71, 1-12, 2004

· "Nonlinear Permanent-Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance", Economic Journal, 113, 125-39, 2003 +

· "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond", Journal of International Economics, 60, 61-83, 2003 +

· "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics, 60, 85-107, 2003 +

· "Nonlinear Equilibrium Correction in US Real Money Balances, 1869-1997", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35, 787-99, 2003 +

· "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Inter-War Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34, 51-75, 2002 +

· "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective and, If So, How Does it Work?" Journal of Economic Literature , 39, 839-68, 2001 +

· "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles", International Economic Review, 42, 1015-1042, 2001 +

· "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio", Economic Inquiry, 39, 524-36, 2001 +

· "Purchasing Power Parity Over Two Centuries: Strengthening the Case for Real Exchange Rate Stability", Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 759-64, 2000 +

· "Non-linear Adjustment, Long Run Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Fundamentals" Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 33-53, 2000 +

· "Hot Money, Accounting Labels and the Persistence of Capital Flows to Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics, 59, 337-64, 1999 +

· "Moral Hazard, Asset Price Bubbles, Capital Flows, and the East Asian Crisis: The First Tests", Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 637-57, 1999 +

· "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean-Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?" Economic Journal, 109, 96-110, 1999 +

· "The Behavior of Real Exchange Rates During the Post Bretton Woods Period", Journal of International Economics, 46, 281-312, 1998 +

· "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Problem of Power and Sample Size",

· Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 945-54, 1997 +

· "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors", Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 353-361,1997 +

· "Real Exchange Rate Behaviour: the Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries", Journal of Political Economy, 104, 488-509, 1996 +

· "Sand in the Wheels of International Finance: A Sceptical View", Economic Journal, 105, 173-80, 1995 +

· "The Economics of Exchange Rates", Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 13-47, 1995

· "Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity", Review of Economics and Statistics, 77, 321-31, 1995 +

· "On the Reinterpretation of Money Demand Regressions", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 26, 851-66, 1994

· "The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long Run Relationships, Short Run Dynamics, and How to Beat a Random Walk", Journal of International Money and Finance, 13, 276-90, 1994 +

· "Modelling the Demand for UK Broad Money, 1871 1913", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 112-7, 1993

· "Analyzing Credibility in High Inflation Countries: A New Approach", Economic Journal, 103, 329-36, 1993 +

· "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 32-7, 1993 +

· "Modelling the Yield Curve", Economic Journal, 102, 524 537, May 1992

· "The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market", Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 304 314, 1992 +

· "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23, 327 51, 1991 (Mark P. Taylor)

· "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence and the European Monetary System", Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 553 58, 1990 +

· "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the Foreign Exchange Market", Economic Journal, 100, 49 59, 1990 +

· "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence", Economic Journal, 99, 376 391, 1989

· "The Internationalization of Stock Markets and the Abolition of UK Exchange Control", Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 332-6, 1989 +

· "Long Run Purchasing Power Parity in the 1920s", European Economic Review, 32, 179 197, 1988 +

· "What do Investment Managers Know? An Empirical Analysis of Practitioners" Predictions", Economica, 55, 185 202, 1988

· "Covered Interest Parity: A High Frequency, High Quality Data Study", Economica, 54, 429 438, 1987

· "On Long Run Solutions to Dynamic Econometric Equations Under Rational Expectations", Economic Journal, 97, 215 218, 1987

· "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic, Rational Expectations Model", Economic Journal, 97, 65 76, 1987 +

· "Testing the Rationality of Buffer Stock Money", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1, 335 356, 1986 +

· + denotes co-authored paper