Departmental news

The first evidence-based assessment of how the Government’s Inheritance Tax (IHT) reform would affect farm estates has been published by the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation (CenTax), led by Professor Arun Advani of Warwick Economics and Dr Andy Summers of the LSE.

CenTax analysis finds that there is scope for better targeting the reforms to extend protection for family farms and other small businesses whilst further reducing the use of agricultural and business property as a tax shelter.

A farm estate, which is the focus of the analysis, is defined as the total net wealth of an individual who has died owning some farmland or other farm assets on which they had claimed tax relief.

Using detailed HMRC inheritance tax data, The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm EstatesLink opens in a new window finds that, as currently designed, the planned reforms do protect family farms to a large extent - just under one third of farm estates would be impacted by the reform; and that of that 30 per cent, around 200 estates per year potentially comprise family farms valued at less than £5 million - but there is scope for better targeting the reforms to extend protection for farms and other small businesses whilst further reducing the use of agricultural and business property as a tax shelter.

The report proposes two options for better targeting the reform whilst still raising at least as much revenue overall:

• A ‘minimum share rule’ that would remove relief for passive investors in farmland and other business assets, reducing the use of these assets as a tax shelter. Restricting relief to estates whose relief claims cover at least 60% of the total estate could fund an increase in the combined allowance for 100% relief to £5 million per estate, whilst still raising at least as much revenue as planned reform overall.
• An ‘upper limit on relief’ that would cap relief at the first £10 million of claim, funding an increase in the allowance for 100% relief to £2 million per estate. The effect would be to extend protection for family farms and other small businesses.

Addressing concerns that family farms would need to be sold to pay the tax, the report finds that:-

• Almost half (49%) of all impacted farm estates would see a tax increase of less than 5 percentage points.
• All of the 25 farm estates per year facing an increase larger than 15pp are valued at over £7.5 million.
• 86% of impacted farm estates could pay their entire IHT bill out of non-farm assets, leaving around 70 farm estates per year that could not.

Dr Andy Summers, Director of the Centre for Analysis of Taxation (CenTax) and Associate Professor at London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) said:

“Our analysis shows that the Government’s reform largely protects family farms whilst limiting claims by the wealthiest estates. But the relief could be better targeted to reduce its use for tax planning and further extend protection for businesses, including farms.”

• PHOTO - His Majesty's Treasury, Whitehall
  
  
• Read the report in full on the CenTax website: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (2025)Link opens in a new window Arun Advani, Sebastian Gazmuri-Barker, Sanaya Mahajan, and Andy Summers
  
  
• The Centre for the Analysis of Taxation (CenTax) is an independent research centre dedicated to improving public understanding of tax policy and helping to design a better tax system. This research was funded by the Nuffield Foundation and abrdn Financial Fairness Trust.

Digital platforms are increasingly taking engagement metrics into account when compensating journalists and other content creators – but does this have a negative effect on pay, quality, tone or coverage?

A new studyLink opens in a new window by Dr Mateusz Stalinski (University of Warwick) and co-authors is among the first to provide answers, based on a field study with a Kenyan digital news platform.

The writers were split into three groups – one-third continued on the existing per-article contract; one-third moved to a pay-per-click (PPC) model; and one-third chose between the two options.

PAY

• Although their articles received double the views of the control group – good news for advertisers! - the journalists who moved to pay-per-click saw their overall earnings fall by 49 per cent

CONTENT

• The pay-per-click journalists focused more on national stories, and on political topics. These shifts are consistent with writers maximizing reach by selecting topics with broad appeal. However, the resulting decline in comprehensive and locally-relevant coverage may carry important civic costs.

TONE

• The pay-per-click writers used fewer positive words in their headlines and produced articles with higher toxicity scores and more negative tone.

Dr Stalinski said “While PPC writers earned more per article, their overall earnings fell, lowering the firm’s wage bill and increasing platform profits. However, these profits come at a cost: PPC writers shifted content production away from local news and towards attention-grabbing political stories.

“PPC writers also used less positive language in both headlines and article bodies. Our results show that engagement-based pay boosts reader traffic, but we also caution that this may come at the cost of compromised coverage diversity, local news provision, and journalist well-being.”

• Incentivizing Engagement: Experimental Evidence on Journalist Performance PayLink opens in a new window Ivan Balbuzanov, Jared Gars, Mateusz Stalinski & Emilia Tjernström Warwick Economics Research Papers No: 1570 July 2025

Autonomy – the feeling of control over how, when and where work gets done - has become recognised as a key driver of employee satisfaction and productivity, especially in the post-COVID hybrid workplace.

But, far from rising throughout a person’s career, new evidence looking at nearly half a million workers in Australia, Germany, the UK and England shows that autonomy peaks in mid-career then steadily declines towards retirement.

In their new paper, “The growth and collapse of autonomy at workLink opens in a new window,” published this month in PNAS, the flagship peer-reviewed journal of the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS), Professor Andrew Oswald of Warwick Economics and Associate Professor Redzo Mujcic of Warwick Business School analyse longitudinal data from more than 400,000 workers in three rich countries to trace in detail their own feelings about their job autonomy, and cross reference this with objective measures such as job titles.

They find that from the age of around 40, in all of the countries studied, job autonomy collapses as people move from middle age towards retirement – which may represent 20 to 30 years of working life.

It is the first study to identify this “hump-shaped” pattern, which remains true for both subjective data – the worker’s own feelings – and more objective measures such as whether a person holds a formal managerial or supervisory position, according to their job title.

The researchers suggest that formal and informal demotions and “sidelining” must play a greater part in the modern labour market than is usually believed.

They also highlight that the curve is not explained by people moving to a new employer in a lower-autonomy role – the data shows that the phenomenon mostly occurs within the same employer.

Professor Oswald said: “We assumed that older workers would today be the ones who ruled the roost and had high autonomy. That is not remotely what we found.”

Dr Mujcic added: “We hope that economists, psychologists, HR specialists and other social and behavioural scientists will pick up this baton and seek to uncover what is driving this international phenomenon; and to reconcile this “hump” with the “bath-tub” wellbeing evidence seen in many other studies.”

• R. Mujcic, & A.J. Oswald, The growth and collapse of autonomy at work, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (27) e2504419122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2504419122 (2025).

New analysis by an international team including Professor Sonia Bhalotra of Warwick Economics and CAGE finds a strong link between job loss and domestic violence. According to the research, published this month in The Review of Economic Studies, men who lose their jobs are more likely to inflict domestic violence, while women who lose their jobs are more likely to become victims. The increases are upwards of 30%.

• Unemployment - whether of men or women- increases domestic violence
• Men who lose their jobs are more likely to inflict domestic violence
• Women who lose their jobs are more likely to become victims of domestic violence
• Unemployment benefits have potential to mitigate this if designed correctly
• These results are relevant globally given that unemployment occurs not just cyclically but also on account of structural changes and automation.

The study discusses carefully designed unemployment benefits as a new approach to policy measures intended to protect women and girls.

Professor Bhalotra said:

“Our study uses administrative data from Brazil to understand the effects of job loss and unemployment benefit payments on domestic violence. Our evidence suggests that job loss triggers two mechanisms – income loss, and an increase in potential time at home. The loss of income creates stress within the household, while more time at home increases exposure to the risk of domestic violence.”

The study is based on large scale data from Brazil, analysed by Sonia Bhalotra with Diogo Britto and Paolo Pinotti of Bocconi University in Italy and Breno Sampaio of Universidade Federal de Pernambuco in Brazil.

The researchers analysed court registers for Brazil that contain every domestic violence case during 2009–2018. In this period there were 2 million domestic violence cases, representing 11% of all criminal justice cases, which were then linked to employment registers, with details of around 100 million workers, 60 million employment spells and 10 million layoffs per year.

The study also included measures of domestic violence that do not rely on victims reporting the event to the police. These are indicators for women using domestic violence public shelters, and notifications of domestic violence by health providers that are mandated by the federal government.

They find that job loss has a significant effect on domestic violence, and that unemployment benefits may not mitigate this effect if they lead to men being unemployed for longer. Benefits do, however, have the potential to mitigate the effect if accompanied by policies that encourage men back into work.

Professor Bhalotra added:

“Our main findings are that job loss influences domestic violence first by generating an income shortfall, and second by increasing exposure to violence. So, the ideal policy intervention would compensate the income shortfall and get people out of the home and back to work.

“Unemployment benefits can help but need to be combined with active policies aimed at getting the unemployed back to work. Traditionally, these policies are training and support with job search, but they could include community service.”

“The policy infrastructure has been primarily concerned with providing support to victims in the shape of shelters, counselling and protection orders. Interventions designed to prevent domestic violence have focused on the economic empowerment of women, though the evidence shows that they misfire in settings where men want to maintain economic control. Our research suggests that it is equally important to consider the economic status of men and the potential for policies that compensate both men and women for income losses.”

• Sonia Bhalotra, Diogo G C Britto, Paolo Pinotti, Breno Sampaio: Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence, The Review of Economic Studies, 2025; rdaf004, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf004
  
  
• The authors acknowledge financial support from The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. Professor Bhalotra acknowledges support from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, grant agreement No. 885698 and from ESRC grant ESM010236-1 awarded to the Human Rights, Big Data and Technology project at the Human Rights Centre in Essex.

The University of Warwick's Department of Economics has once again demonstrated its commitment to world-class teaching and student experience, securing the top spot in the Russell Group for student satisfaction in the 2025 National Student Survey (NSS), and achieving an average positivity score of 93% for Teaching on my Course.

With a response rate of 76%, final-year undergraduate students rated the Department highly across multiple themes, earning Economics its strongest-ever performance in the survey to date. The Department achieved first place among all Russell Group universities for key categories of the survey with percentage of satisfied students in brackets:

• Teaching on my Course (93%)
• Learning Opportunities (88%)
• Assessment and Feedback (83%)

High scores were also achieved in the following categories:

• Organisation and Management (92%)
• Academic Support (91%)

Professor Jeremy Smith, Head of the Department of Economics, said:

"We are incredibly proud to see our students recognise the dedication and excellence in the quality of teaching of our staff. These results reflect not only the academic rigour of our programmes but also the inclusive and supportive environment we strive to maintain."

Students rated the Department particularly highly on individual questions, including:

• How good are teaching staff at explaining things? (96%)
• How often is the course intellectually stimulating? (97%)
• How well does the course challenge you to achieve your best work? (95%)
• How well does your course introduce subjects and skills in a way that builds on what you have already learned? (92%)
• How often have you received assessment feedback on time? (96%)
• How well organised is your course? (93%)
• I would recommend the University to future students (93%)

While some areas (IT resources and visibility of feedback action) presented opportunities for development, the overall satisfaction remains exceptionally high - outperforming institutional averages and reaffirming Warwick Economics’ status as one of the UK’s leading departments in the field.

The Department's continued success feeds into Warwick’s strong standing in the Teaching Excellence Framework and league tables including the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, The Guardian and the Complete University Guide.

Professor Jeremy Smith added:

"These insights are vital not only for internal reflection but also for future students looking for a vibrant, intellectually rewarding place to study. We are grateful to our students for their feedback and proud to champion their voice as part of our teaching journey."

We are pleased to announce that two members of the Department of Economics have been honoured for their teaching with the Warwick Awards for Teaching Excellence (WATE).

The Awards celebrate exceptional educators in the Warwick teaching community.

The Faculty Awards highlight the significance of understanding disciplinary contexts in achieving educational excellence. In recognition of the role of collaboration in fostering educational communities, WATE introduced the Collaborative Award in 2021 and the Community & Culture Award in 2022.

Additionally, the Award for Postgraduates who Teach, honours Graduate Teaching Assistants for their valuable contributions to student learning and the academic community. Read more about the award categories.

Dr Arthur Galichere received the Social Sciences Faculty Award and Shantanu Chadha was acclaimed with the Postgrads who teach award.

Find out what Arthur and Shantanu said about being honoured in their respective categories:

Dr Arthur Galichere

“I am still very surprised to receive this award, especially as an early career academic. I feel deeply honoured and sincerely grateful to my students for their nomination and for the warm feedback I have received since joining Warwick. It is truly rewarding to know that my teaching has had a meaningful impact on their learning experience.

I am also thankful to the WATE jury for this recognition, and to my colleagues, whose support and inspiration have meant a great deal. I do not think this would have been possible without them.”

Dr Arthur Galichere is a Assistant Professor (Teaching Focussed) within the Department of Economics. View his staff profile.

 

Shantanu Chadha

“My research lies at the intersection of microeconomics and econometrics, with a focus on modelling the role of social and economic networks in shaping behaviour and policy outcomes. Alongside my focus on research, I also teach small-group seminar classes as a Senior Graduate Teaching Assistant. Teaching has always been deeply meaningful to me and is one of the key reasons behind my decision to pursue a PhD.

Just being nominated for the Warwick Awards for Teaching Excellence (WATE) was a surreal feeling and provided immense satisfaction for all the hard-work I try and put in to ensure that my students not only learn but do so in a fun, inclusive and safe environment, and winning the award was just the cherry on top.

This award reaffirms my commitment to creating inclusive, student-centred learning environments where students not only thrive academically but are also empowered to think critically and apply their knowledge to real-world challenges. It is an honour I carry with immense pride and responsibility, and I am deeply grateful to the department, my module lecturers, and—most importantly—my students for recognising my efforts and helping me grow as a tutor.”

Shantanu Chadha is a PhD student and a Senior Graduate Teaching Assistant within the Department of Economics. View his staff profile.

 

Professor Roger Farmer, Emeritus Professor Michael Waterson and former Dean of Warwick in London Professor Abhinay Muthoo are among the 58 Founding Fellows announced by the Royal Economic Society this week.

The Fellowship is a new initiative from the Royal Economic Society and recognises economists who have made a significant contribution to the discipline and to society beyond academia, in the judgement of an expert panel. The new Fellows are entitled to use FREcon as a postnomial.

Warwick Economics works closely with RES on several initiatives, including the hosting of their flagship event - RES annual conference at Warwick in 2019. Many of our academics, alumni and current students of the Department engage in the work of RES networks like UK Women in Economics Network, Diversity & Inclusion Network and Discover Economics campaign.

Roger Farmer is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick, Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Economics at UCLA and a Visiting Scholar at the University of Virginia. His research examines the connection between market psychology and macroeconomics, and the implications for fiscal policy. He said:

“I am honoured to be nominated as a Founding Fellow of the Royal Economic Society and I look forward to contributing to the success of the organization in the years to come.”

Mike Waterson is Emeritus Professor of Economics at Warwick and was Head of Department of Economics at Warwick between 1999 and 2002. He retired from academia in 2020 but maintains close links with the Department through his involvement with the CAGE research centre. Mike commented:

“I am very pleased to be included in the group of founding fellows of the RES. I have always believed that economics should be applied for the good of society and I have been engaged, over the years, in many diverse policy activities alongside my academic career, particularly in the competition sphere.”

Abhinay Muthoo was Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick until 2022 and Head of the Department of Economics between 2008 and 2016. During his time as Head of Department, CAGE Research Centre was established and the Department affirmed its reputation for research quality in the Research Excellence Framework 2014.

Head of Department Professor Jeremy Smith said:

“Many congratulations to Roger, Mike and Abhinay. It is an indication of the standing of the Department that the RES awards fellowships to 3 individuals who are closely tied to the Department. We look forward to building upon our existing relationship with the RES.”

RES President Prof Sir Chris Pissarides, who chaired the judging panel, said:

“The panel was impressed by the depth and breadth of the applications it considered, with representation from academia, the public and private sectors and those working in schools. Through their applications our new Fellows demonstrated the impact they have made not just in their roles, but to the wider economics profession. We congratulate them and look forward to working with them to advance the RES vision: that economics be understood, advanced and applied for the good of society and the world around us.”

The THRIVING Food Futures project, a consortium of researchers including Professor Thijs van Rens of the University of Warwick, has been awarded a five-year funding grant by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).

This new research hub aims to develop policy solutions that reduce the carbon footprint of our diets whilst maximising health benefits.

It will bring together the public, policymakers and academics to co-design and evaluate policies for healthy, sustainable diets, with a focus on changing how food is marketed and sold.

As well as helping the country meet its legal Net Zero targets, sustainable diets can address public health issues such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and health inequalities.

Members of the THRIVING Link opens in a new windowhub include researchers from Oxford, Cambridge, Strathclyde, Warwick, Queen Mary University London and City St George’s University London.

Professor Thijs van Rens will lead a team working on the development of metrics, algorithms and tools to support the project. A new Nutrient and Environmental Profiling Model will classify and rank foods based on their nutritional content and environmental impact, to help inform policies for healthy, sustainable diets.

The team will also create novel digital tools, such as smartphone apps, to collect data and evaluate the effect of interventions in real-world shopping environments. These tools will allow for large-scale testing of proposed policies independent of commercial partnerships, and enable rigorous evaluation of how different policy approaches influence food choices and sustainability.

Thijs said:

We cannot deliver on net zero promises without significant change to our diets, because production of food, particularly of ruminant meat, is responsible for a third of carbon emissions globally. At the same time, making diets healthier to halt the obesity epidemic and the public health crisis is just as urgent.

Healthier, more sustainable diets are a responsibility of all. But we cannot wait for everyone to be on board, and we cannot rely on the large commercial players in the food system to do the right thing. Urgent action is needed now.

In the THRIVING project, we want to not only clarify what foods are good for human and planetary health, but also find ways build public support for these diets, and gather real-world evidence on what policies will be effective in encouraging dietary change.

Pete Scarborough, Professor of Population Health at Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, and project lead, added:

“The THRIVING Food Futures research hub is a great opportunity to reshape the UK’s food system in a way that benefits both our health and the environment.

“By working closely with policymakers and the public, we will create evidence-based solutions that are not only effective but also widely accepted and viable. If implemented, these policies can contribute to a healthier population and a healthier planet.”

This ambitious project is part of a new wave of transdisciplinary research hubs funded by UKRI and NIHR, designed to support transformative change. The THRIVING Food Futures project will not only provide valuable real-world evidence but also develop tools and policy maps that can be used beyond the life of the project.

• For more information about the project and its goals, please visit the THRIVING Food Futures webpageLink opens in a new window

Professor Stefano Caria has recently featured in the VoxDevTalks podcast series, discussing new work in the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) Policy Insights series on reducing barriers to employment in low and middle income countries.

J-PAL’s Policy Insights programme aims to bring together lessons emerging from multiple academic studies and publish policy briefs to help inform decision-making in governments, NGOs, firms, and funders working to address similar challenges.

Hosted by Tim Phillips, the episode, “Helping jobseekers signal their skills” also features Professor Marianne Bertrand of Chicago Booth School. Professor Bertrand and Professor Caria are co-chairs of the J-PAL Labor Markets sector, responsible for developing Policy Insights work in this area.

In the podcast, Professor Caria and Professor Bertrand discuss the key insights from Improving job seekers’ employment and earnings through credible skills signals, published in November. Identifying a “major market failure,” Professor Bertrand explains that matching skills to jobs is not straightforward. Employers don’t want to hire someone who lacks the skills for the role; but they also don’t want to hire someone with greater skills than are required as that person is likely to move on quickly once their skills are publicly demonstrated.

It is also the case that job seekers, especially young people, don’t always find it easy to assess their own skills against those set out in job descriptions.

Strategies to address this might include paying inexperienced workers less; investing in training; or relying on referrals from friends and families of existing workers. Professor Bertrand notes that “referrals have advantages but also some clear limitations,” warning that less-well-networked groups like women and younger workers can lose out.

Professor Caria adds that “for young people especially, who are trying to enter the labour market, the idea that unless they have the right connections they’re not going to land the job can be extremely discouraging.”

The policy brief reviews fourteen randomized evaluations to set out the impact of one relatively low-cost intervention – enabling job-seekers to demonstrate their skills in a reliable and standardised way. For example, they could get a certificate from a recognised local institution such as a college or an NGO after taking part in a skills evaluation workshop.

Professor Caria concludes: “The evidence seems clear that such programmes help job-seekers better understand their own skills, so they apply for more appropriate roles, and they help employers make better hiring decisions. Job-seekers who can demonstrate their skills tend to earn more, and they tend to stay in role longer, which is a benefit to the firm and helps to grow the economy overall.”

• Listen to the podcast: VoxDev Development Economics / Helping jobseekers signal their skills
• Read the policy brief: Improving job seekers’ employment and earnings through credible skills signals | The Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab
• Read an academic literature review by Professor Caria and Professor Kate Orkin which covers these interventions: Barriers to Search & Hiring in Urban Labour Markets | VoxDev

A project led by Professor Thiemo Fetzer has won one of this year’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) Research Excellence Awards.

The awards recognise excellent and innovative research carried out using the secure data held within ONS Trusted Research Environments, and highlight the ways in which statistical research has been of benefit to wider society.

Around 300 projects a year are given approval to access these granular data, and awards are made to 6 of them.

Professor Fetzer, Dr Christina Palmou (ONS) and Dr Jakob Schneebacher (CMA) won the Impact of Analysis Award – Collaboration with Government which recognises successful collaboration between researchers and at least one UK government department or devolved administration.

Their project, How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time? illustrates the power of good quality, real-time, linked microdata in enabling better, less costly policy decisions, and in challenging over-simplified lobbying narratives.

Speaking at the awards ceremony, Dr Palmou said: “Policymakers often need to quickly respond to unexpected shocks - such as financial crises, natural disasters or the economic and humanitarian consequences of war - but traditional data collection methods and research takes months or years."

Professor Fetzer explains: "Without accurate data, policymakers may be forced to rely on economic narratives provided by the media, interest groups or financial markets to guide them. These narratives may be oversimplified or biased.

“To close this gap, we have built a new toolbox, consisting of high-frequency linked microdata, a pre-registered analysis plan, and a flexible empirical strategy to estimate firm responses to shocks in near real-time."

Dr Palmou added: “We used these tools to examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins.”

Professor Fetzer commented: “Our project is a type of proof of concept of how rapid evidence could be created with an agile and responsive public data infrastructure that could also be used for narrative testing.

“But this is a bit further down the line. Most importantly, we sketched out how, with public data infrastructure, real time evaluations of shocks like the energy crisis can be carried out in an agile way.

“This has the potential to change the way governments respond to crises and enable more targeted policy responses that can have much higher impact and lower cost to taxpayers.”

Professor Ben Lockwood, Head of the Department of Economics at Warwick, said: “Many congratulations to Thiemo, Christina and Jakob on this award. Their project is an outstanding demonstration of how good data, empirical research, and advanced techniques of analysis can come together to inform better policy decisions, and an excellent example of how academic research can be applied to real-world policy challenges.”

• How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time? Thiemo Fetzer, Christina Palmou and Jakob Schneebacher ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2024-16 November 2024 is available here.
• Read a blog about the project by the researchers: Evidence for policymakers in real time: a blueprint - ESCoE.