Forum
What is DR@W Forum?
DR@W Forum is an interdisciplinary discussion series which focuses on theoretical and empirical research about decision making.
The usual structure of the forum is a 30 - 45 minute introduction of the topic/working paper, with ample additional time for discussion.
The audience prefers discussing work-in-progress topics as opposed to finished papers. We meet on Thursdays between 2:30 and 3:45pm during term time, with streaming via Zoom. Contact John Taylor (John.Taylor[at]wbs.ac.uk) if you would like to suggest a speaker for a future event. Notifications of upcoming DR@W Forum events along with other decision research related activities can be obtained by registering with the moderated Behaviour Spotlight email listLink opens in a new window.
Note that several talks during the 2024/25 academic year are being hosted and orgnanised by the Economics department. This is indicated in the calendar entries. These talks will all take place in the Social Studies building. If you require further details regarding these sessions, please contact Matthew Ridley (Matthew.Ridley[at]Warwick.ac.uk) in the Economics department.
DR@W Forum (Hybrid Session): Christoph Becker (Heidelberg)
Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how
individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. We test if subjects
update their beliefs according to reverse Bayesianism, under which the relative likelihoods of prior
beliefs remain unchanged after an unforeseen event materializes. Across two experiments we find that
participants do not systematically deviate from reverse Bayesianism. However, we do find well-known
violations of Bayesian updating. Furthermore, decision makers vary in their ex-ante unawareness
depending on the context.