Are we living in another Migration Period? Pandemics, migration and the environmental link

Are we living in another Migration Period? Pandemics, migration and the environmental link

Pandemics, migration, and climate change: a concise summary of recent years – one might say. Actually, the very same dynamics also unfolded in Europe during the so-called Migration Period (3rd–9th centuries CE). Examining both the contemporary era and the Migration Period through the lens of Global History allows us to identify differences and continuities. By tracing the evolution of these processes, examining migration, pandemics and climate changes through a global lens might help us better assess the contemporary world. Such an approach requires cooperation across the sciences in an interdisciplinary spirit characteristic of Global History. In this case, it entails integrating archaeology, epidemiology, medicine, environmental history, climatology, statistics, economics, sociology, and European History. Ultimately, this analysis is not only valuable for historical research; it also offers essential insights for policymaking aimed at addressing increasingly significant global challenges. This blog post aims to highlight the historicity of transnational phenomena such as pandemics and migration.

Why the Migration Period?

For decades, the fall of the Western Roman Empire was attributed to the so-called “barbarian invasions.” Recent research, such as that by Kyle Harper and various scientific studies [1], however, has shown that this epochal transformation resulted from the convergence of multiple socio-environmental factors. In fact, throughout its history, Rome had repeatedly welcomed hundreds of thousands of individuals living along its northern frontiers – when it was not deporting entire populations or actively encouraging their relocation. The rationale was straightforward: the Empire needed labour for agriculture and new recruits for the army. Yet, toward the beginning of the Migration Period, something changed. New political entities began forming along the Empire’s northern borders. This transformation was probably linked in part to climate change: in the 4th century, northern and north-eastern Europe experienced colder periods than in previous centuries, as well as episodes of drought. Increasingly, populations from outside the Roman Empire began to move into Roman territory. This migration was also driven by the advance of the Huns – an Asian people who reached Europe’s frontiers after two centuries of movement, seemingly prompted, once again, by drought conditions and a dustbowl-like scenario. At the same time, the Roman Empire itself was undergoing political strain, heightened by the growing influence of Germanic groups along the frontiers and within imperial society. Therefore, it was unable to manage and respond to the mass arrival of increasing numbers of people. These factors led to the transformation of the Western part of the Roman Empire (roughly corresponding to present-day Western Europe) into a series of “Roman-barbarian” kingdoms.

Simultaneously, the Eastern half of the Roman Empire persisted as the Eastern Roman Empire. In 541 CE, this territory was affected by the first of a series of epidemics known as the “First plague pandemic”. The epidemics soon reached Western Europe and reoccurred in several waves until 767. These plague outbreaks left clear economic and social traces in the archaeological record: depopulation, settlement abandonment, economic hardship, and cultural and political changes. Even in Northern Europe – where no written evidence of the plague exists – archaeological findings suggest similar disruptions, indicating that the disease likely reached the region. The pathogen, Yersinia pestis, probably arrived through the eastern Mediterranean; though whether it spread through maritime or overland trade routes remains unclear. Recent studies suggest that the spillover occurred in Egypt, due to the convergence of several ecological factors, including the presence of a specific flea species, while the bacterium itself originated in the Tian Shan mountains between modern-day China and Kyrgyzstan [2]. From there, it may have reached the Silk Road, carried by the migratory movements of the Huns.

A colder climate – exacerbated by a major volcanic eruption that dimmed the sky – the general political instability, and the fear of a disease that had devastated Europe all left profound marks on the population. As a result, former Roman populations increasingly withdrew to fortified areas and relied on armed followers of warlords, who became the rulers of the emerging European kingdoms. These developments reshaped the continent politically, socially, and culturally.

The Contemporary Era: The “Anthropic Trap”

The COVID-19 pandemic was not the first pandemic of the twenty-first century, but it has certainly been the most consequential in recent decades. It also made the world acutely aware of how conditions for pandemics have increased and how close we may be to what I call an “anthropic trap”, a vicious circle of self-perpetuating conditions caused by climate change.

It is now widely accepted that today’s climate change – unlike that of the Migration Period – is anthropogenic. Its human origin accelerates its pace, undermining societies’ adaptive capacities. Communities in the regions most affected by climate change must increasingly contend with extreme events such as floods or droughts, with far-reaching political and social consequences. Political conflict and social instability has been linked to the rise of terrorist groups in parts of Africa, while civil unrest brought by the agricultural crisis in the Middle East is considered one of the contributing factors behind the rise of ISIS, triggering the displacement of millions of people. At the same time, many researchers warn that competition over increasingly scarce water resources may spark conflicts in crucial areas of the world, such as the Horn of Africa or the triangle between China, India, and Pakistan. Economic insecurity caused by extreme climatic events can fuel conflict and migration. The latter, in turn, often stems directly from wars but can also prompt social upheaval in receiving states – as illustrated by the political controversy surrounding migration policies around the world. Moreover, as has been the case for years, hundreds of thousands of people forced from their homes by extreme climatic events relocate to major cities, driving uncontrolled urbanisation and habitat destruction. Importantly, this occurs predominantly in so-called “pandemic hotspots,”– regions where demographic and environmental conditions heighten the risk of spillover of potential pandemic pathogens [3].

Finally, pandemics themselves have severe economic repercussions, with further implications for migration and social conflict. In 2020 alone, an estimated 20 million people migrated within the African continent, with COVID-19 acting as additional catalyst for migration along with poverty, conflict and climate-related diseases [4].

In conclusion, the dense global interconnections between migration, social conflict and economic crisis has placed humanity at risk of getting caught in an “anthropic trap”. This can only be avoided by addressing the root cause of these interlinked processes: climate change.

A New Migration Period? Why Global History Matters

The interconnections among pandemics, migration, and climate change span both historical periods. A more comprehensive analysis would reveal significant similarities in societal responses, but I want to underline here the most important difference: time. Although we are accustomed to treating these transformations as a single historical cluster, the epochal changes of the Migration Period unfolded gradually, allowing societies the time to adapt. Today, such time margins no longer exist. The effects of climate change are already flagrant, and viruses now spread far more rapidly than they did in Late Antiquity. Furthermore, regardless of ongoing legal debates, the first climate migrants are already among us and shifting climatic conditions have already triggered political changes. This raises the question of whether the epochal changes witnessed during the Migration Period could occur today at an entirely different pace, and how migration, pandemics, and climate change might reshape our societies – as they once did in the past.

Studying both periods through a Global History framework thus helps illuminate how global events are interconnected and how they shape societies. At the same time, every historical inquiry inevitably interrogates the present. Each detail, each fil rouge that Global History reveals, not only deepens our understanding of the past but also offers a glimpse into our future.