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Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest stories as they unfold, including a pair of new legal challenges facing Polymarket, a U.S. Army soldier’s effort to dismiss the CFTC’s event-contract lawsuit before trial, changes to New Jersey’s prediction market legislation, newly posted CFTC filings from Novig, and Kalshi’s FIFA World Cup Winner market surpassing $1 billion in trading volume. Follow along for live updates on prediction markets, regulation, sports event trading, crypto, and the companies shaping the industry’s next chapter.
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The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has confirmed that financial risk assessments will be introduced in stages, marking a major change in its regulatory approach after months of debate about proposed affordability checks.
During a meeting announcing the decision and attended by ReadWrite, Acting Chief Executive Sarah Gardner said the regulator wants to identify customers who are spending heavily while facing serious financial problems, without creating the level of disruption that has been associated with existing affordability processes.
“We found evidence that some high-spending gambling customers are experiencing current financial difficulties and they’re not being identified via means that are already open to gambling operators,” Gardner said. “Those customers are between two and four times more likely to have a debt management plan and between two and five times more likely to have had a default in the previous 12 months than comparable consumers.”
The announcement accompanied publication of the commission’s policy confirming that financial risk assessments will replace the earlier affordability check proposal. Instead of judging whether someone can afford to gamble, the new framework is intended to detect signs of significant financial distress, including defaults, arrears and debt management plans.
“The vast majority of gambling customers will never ever require a financial risk assessment.” – Sarah Gardner, UK Gambling Commission Acting CEO
Commission officials repeatedly highlighted that distinction throughout the briefing.
“I do want to pick up on the terminology,” Finance Director Helen Gibson told reporters. “These really are not affordability checks. They do not take account of affordability. They are identifying customers who are in financial difficulties… We want to reassure customers that we’re not accessing deep levels of information about them.”
Highest thresholds limit the initial rollout
One of the biggest changes is the decision to begin with much higher spending thresholds than many in the industry had expected.
Rather than introducing the lower levels discussed during the Gambling Act Review consultation, the first phase will cover only the largest gambling businesses and customers making exceptionally high deposits.
“We want to reassure customers that we’re not accessing deep levels of information about them.” – Helen Gibson, UK Gambling Commission Finance Director
For customers aged 25 and over, an assessment will initially be triggered only when net deposits exceed £5,000 ($6,694) within a rolling 24-hour period. According to the agency, that pattern affects fewer than 0.5% of gambling customers. Separate, lower thresholds will apply to younger adults.
Gardner described the approach as part of a “careful, informed, staged implementation” intended to balance consumer protection with the practical realities of introducing a new system.
The regulator also said it will create implementation groups bringing together gambling operators, credit reference agencies and other stakeholders. Those groups will help refine the process before it is expanded more broadly across the sector.
Most checks can be completed without customer documents
The commission said results from its pilot programme gave it confidence that the new process can operate with minimal disruption for most customers.
According to Gardner, about 97% of customers who exceeded the pilot thresholds could be assessed automatically using credit reference data without being asked to provide documents.
That result was higher than the 80% estimate included in the Government’s 2023 Gambling White Paper.
Gardner also said fewer than 3% of active gambling accounts would ultimately require an assessment. Of those, fewer than one account in every 1,000 could not be assessed automatically, meaning only a very small group might need another verification method such as Open Banking or document requests.
The commission states that it has consistently argued that these assessments will not affect a customer’s credit score. It also says the intention is to replace document requests already used by some operators rather than introduce additional barriers for consumers.
This is reinforced in a Freedom of Information response released by the regulator. It states that financial risk assessments are different from affordability checks and confirms the commission is not considering mandatory Open Banking or automatically preventing customers from gambling because they refuse to share banking information.
Evidence-driven rollout for financial checks over affordability aims to balance protection with practicality
It also announced an unusual temporary enforcement approach during the early stages of implementation.
Gardner said the regulator will not immediately take enforcement action against operators that fail to act solely because of a financial risk assessment result. She described that position as unusual for a regulator but said it should give operators confidence while they develop suitable customer interaction procedures.
Instead of expecting automatic account closures, the commission pointed to a range of proportionate responses. These include reducing marketing communications, encouraging customers to use deposit limits and offering additional support where appropriate. Gardner stressed that operators will still be expected to meet every other regulatory obligation.
The announcement follows months of discussion about the pilot programme. In April, Social Market Foundation senior fellow Dr James Noyes called on Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy to delay implementation until the complete pilot evaluation had been published.
“My support for affordability checks was done on the basis that there would be adequate oversight and evaluation of their efficacy,” he wrote, adding that changing market conditions warranted fresh scrutiny of the policy.
The commission responded by saying it was continuing to analyse pilot findings before reaching a final decision while remaining focused on reducing friction for consumers.
Earlier debate also intensified after financial vulnerability check thresholds were lowered from £500 to £150 in net deposits over a rolling 30-day period during 2025. Research published by the Department of Trust and previously reported by ReadWrite suggested roughly one-quarter of UK gamblers would exceed those lower thresholds, underlining the potential scale of enhanced customer interaction measures. The same analysis found that those customers accounted for almost all gambling deposits despite representing a minority of players.
The latest policy makes clear that financial risk assessments themselves will begin at far higher thresholds and will be introduced gradually rather than all at once.
That approach also reflects comments made last year by Executive Director Tim Miller during the Peers for Gambling Reform Summit.
“We are not going to rely upon gut instinct or belief to measure the success of previous gambling reforms – we will rely upon evidence,” Miller said.
Gibson acknowledged concerns raised by operators about differences between credit reference agencies during the pilot. She said the commission plans to work with both operators and agencies to improve consistency, refine the models and provide clearer information about the severity and timing of customers’ financial difficulties.
The regulator also declined to publish a fixed timetable, saying implementation will be agreed with industry groups after businesses have prepared their systems.
Featured image: Canva
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New Jersey lawmakers are moving forward with legislation that would impose a new 9% surtax on income generated by companies operating prediction markets in the state, as legislators look to tax a rapidly expanding sector while the state continues its legal fight over the industry’s future.
Senate Bill 4447, recently reported from the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee as a substitute, would apply the additional tax to allocated taxable net income received by prediction market platforms operating in New Jersey. The surtax would be imposed on top of existing taxes, including the Corporation Business Tax. The measure would also apply a matching 9% surtax to income earned by certain partners and shareholders when that income is derived from operating prediction market platforms, in addition to the state’s Gross Income Tax.
The proposal focuses exclusively on prediction markets, which the legislation defines broadly. Under the bill, a prediction market is “any physical or electronic system that allows participants to open a speculative position on the outcome of future events, in a bid-ask format, and in any other form regardless of the mechanisms or structures used for opening speculative positions on future events.”
The bill also adopts an expansive definition of “future events.” Those include “the outcome or occurrence of a federal, state, or local election, events in popular culture, an athletic event or game of skill, any game played with cards, dice, equipment, or any mechanical or electronic device machine, and legal actions.”
Rather than separating different types of prediction markets, the legislation would apply the surtax uniformly. According to the bill, it “does not distinguish the types of speculative positions,” meaning the additional tax would apply to income generated from all qualifying prediction market activity.
New Jersey pairs proposed prediction market tax with continued legal challenge against Kalshi
The tax proposal comes as New Jersey remains involved in an ongoing legal dispute over prediction market operator Kalshi.
According to recent court filings, New Jersey Attorney General Matthew J. Platkin and Deputy Attorney General Liza Fleming urged a federal court to follow a Nevada ruling that determined Kalshi should be subject to state gaming laws. In their filing, the state argued, “As Hendrick confirms, Kalshi's ‘sports related event contracts’ are ‘sports wagers and everyone who sees them knows it.'” The filing also contended that New Jersey had become “the only court in the country to accept Kalshi's attempted federalization of the multi-billion dollar gaming industry.”
Ohio has also cited the Nevada decision in its own efforts to challenge Kalshi’s operations. State officials there argued the ruling had been referenced repeatedly in related litigation and disputed the company’s position that the Commodity Exchange Act broadly preempts state regulation of prediction market contracts.
A fiscal estimate prepared by the New Jersey Office of Legislative Services projects the proposed surtax would generate between $10.3 million and $15.3 million in additional state revenue during fiscal year 2027.
Legislative analysts cautioned that the estimate carries significant uncertainty because prediction markets remain a relatively new industry with limited publicly available financial information. The projection also assumes growth in the sector will not reduce activity at existing sportsbooks and casinos. If consumers shift spending away from traditional wagering operators, lower tax collections from those businesses could partially offset revenue generated by the new surtax.
Analysts further noted that forecasting revenue beyond fiscal year 2027 remains difficult because of the industry’s early stage of development. They also said the 2026 FIFA World Cup could temporarily increase prediction market activity, creating revenue levels that may not be sustained in later years.
Featured image: Canva
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Two Polymarket users have sued the prediction market platform in New York state court, claiming the company changed the rules of a Bitcoin-related market after the underlying event had already happened and wrongly denied payouts to traders who correctly predicted the result.
The complaint, filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, names Adventure One QSS Inc., doing business as Polymarket.com; Blockratize Inc., doing business as Polymarket; Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan; Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber; and additional unnamed defendants.
According to the lawsuit, plaintiffs William Wood and Thomas Bush bought “Yes” shares in a market asking whether Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy, would sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by May 31, 2026. They point to a Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission stating the company sold 32 Bitcoin during the relevant period, arguing that outcome meant the market should have resolved as “Yes.”
Bitcoin market dispute adds to Polymarket legal challenges
Instead, the complaint says Polymarket settled the market as “No” after adding clarification language that shifted the question from whether Strategy sold Bitcoin before the deadline to whether the sale had been publicly confirmed by that date. The plaintiffs argue the sale itself was the event participants were predicting, while the SEC filing merely documented that it had already occurred.
The lawsuit describes the disagreement as involving an objective and verifiable fact rather than an ambiguous prediction. It further argues that changing the governing standard after the event undermined the platform’s promise that markets are resolved using fixed, pre-defined rules. The plaintiffs also cite Polymarket’s marketing, including statements that users can “profit from [their] knowledge” and that its markets “seek truth,” alleging those representations influenced their trading decisions.
The filing also contends Polymarket exercises significant control over market outcomes despite saying contracts are resolved through the UMA Optimistic Oracle. According to the complaint, the company drafted the rules, controlled the interface, posted the disputed clarification, kept trading open afterward, and ultimately accepted the final outcome.
The case adds to a growing list of legal challenges facing Polymarket. Earlier this year, a proposed federal class action in New York alleged the platform operates as an illegal sports gambling business while presenting itself as a lawful prediction market. Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pursued civil insider trading cases tied to Polymarket, including actions against a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier accused of using confidential military information and a Google engineer accused of trading on nonpublic search data. Both matters remain pending, and the allegations have not been proven in court.
Wood and Bush seek damages, restitution in the alternative, statutory and treble damages, injunctive relief, interest, attorneys’ fees, costs, and payment of the alleged unpaid $1.00-per-share redemption value for their winning “Yes” shares.
Featured image: Canva / Polymarket
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VGW founder Laurence Escalante has resigned as Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Virtual Gaming Worlds (VGW), ending his 16-year leadership of the company after taking a leave of absence earlier this year following criminal charges brought against him in Western Australia.
The company announced Escalante’s resignation with immediate effect, saying he had chosen to step down to focus on personal matters, along with his private business interests, investment activities and philanthropic work through his family office.
Escalante had been on leave since January after VGW became aware of charges filed by Western Australia Police. The company has consistently said the allegations are unrelated to its business and are personal in nature.
According to court allegations reported earlier this year, Escalante faces charges including persistent family violence, aggravated assault, aggravated burglary and multiple drug offences. Prosecutors also allege he possessed trafficable quantities of cocaine, MDMA and ketamine with intent to sell or supply. The allegations remain before the courts.
Following his arrest, Escalante denied the allegations in a statement to gambling news outlet The Straight.
"My arrest on these matters has come as a shock to myself and my family. From the little I know of the allegations at this stage, I can only say that they are untrue and will be defended. I ask for both mine and my family's privacy be respected, and thank them for their support," said Escalante.
VGW leadership transition underway as Laurence Escalante steps down
Senior executive Mats Johnson, who assumed the role of Acting CEO when Escalante stepped aside in January, will continue leading the business while VGW conducts a global search for a permanent chief executive.
The executive leadership team credited Escalante with building the company from its launch in Perth in 2010 into one of Australia’s largest privately held businesses with a major presence in the United States.
"Laurence started VGW 16 years ago and grew it from an innovative idea in Perth into one of Australia's largest unlisted businesses and overseas success stories," Johnson said.
"He pioneered a new social gaming category that is now a major market in the US, the largest consumer and gaming market in the world, delivering world-class entertainment to millions of players. We thank Laurence for these and many other achievements and contributions at VGW, and for the confidence he is showing in us – and all our 1300 team members – to continue VGW's successes in the future."
Escalante’s departure comes less than a year after VGW shareholders approved his bid to acquire the remaining 30% of the company he did not already own. Shareholders backed the AUD 632 million ($439 million) takeover proposal through Ocean BidCo Limited, with 85% voting in favor after an independent assessment concluded the $3.32 per share offer was fair and reasonable.
VGW, which has reported annual revenue of approximately $4 billion and operates the Chumba Casino and Luckyland Casino sweepstakes platforms, said Johnson and the existing executive leadership team will continue managing the business until a permanent CEO is appointed. The company did not provide a timeline for completing the global search.
Featured image: Screenshot via The Australian YouTube
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