As part of an MRC funded project “Mathematical modelling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic at the local, regional and national scale”, our team at Zeeman Institute:SBIDER (Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) is using real time data on the UK COVID-19 outbreak to provide robust predictions, gauging the ability of a model to predict future epidemic behaviour. We are investigating how our short- and long-term predictions change during an outbreak as more information becomes available, how this may effect forecasts of the appropriate control measures that could be introduced and when and how such policies should be relaxed. Finally, taking into account the potential for future waves of infection, we may use our models to examine adaptive control policies that can be implemented to reduce the number of deaths as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and to minimise the impact on the health service.

I am also a participant of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). SPI-M has been reporting to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), providing advice (based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology) on scientific matters related to the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The team includes Matt Keeling, Michael Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Ben Atkins and several colleagues in SBIDER.

Relevant Publications

Peer-reviewed papers

• Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics 
  Louise Dyson*, Edward M Hill*, ... et al. (2021)
  Nature Communications, 12: 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 ( ^∗ denotes joint first authors)
• Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses. 
  Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling. (2021)
  Interface, 18(182): 20210214. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0214
• SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. 
  Jessica Enright^∗, Edward M Hill^∗, Helena B Stage, Kirsty J Bolton, Emily J Nixon, Emma Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R Gog, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  Royal Society Open Science, 8(8): 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310 (^∗ denotes joint first authors)
• Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson. (2021)
  Epidemics, 36: 100476. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100476
• A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  PLoS Computational Biology, 17(6): e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058
• Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model 
  Julia R Gog, Edward M Hill, Leon Danon, Robin N Thompson. (2021)
  Royal Society Open Science, 8(7): 210530. doi:10.1098/rsos.210530
• An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic 
  Emma R Southall, Alex Holmes, Edward M Hill, Benjamin D Atkins, Trystan Leng, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  BMC Medicine, 19: 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x
• The impact of school reopening on the spread of COIVD-19 in England.  
  Matt J. Keeling, Michael J. Tildesley, Benjamin D Atkins, Bridget Penman, Emma Southall, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Hector McKimm, Erin Gorsich, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson. (2021)
  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 376(1829): 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261
• SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape 
  Robin N Thompson, Edward M Hill, Julia R Gog. (2021)
  Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21(7): 913-914. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00202-4
• Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J. Keeling. (2021)
  Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21(6): 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2
• Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling. (2021)
  PLoS Computational Biology, 17(5): e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849.
• Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Edward M. Hill, Erin Gorsich, Bridget Penman, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Trystan Leng, Hector McKimm, Massimiliano Tamborrino, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley. (2021)
  PLoS Computational Biology, 17(1):e1008619.doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619

Preprints

• Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2 
  Matt J Keeling, Amy C Thomas, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Sam Moore. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265977
• The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications 
  Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Robin N Thompson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.11.08.21266079
• Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England 
  Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Alex Holmes, Emma Southall, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.07.09.21260271
• Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England 
  Robert Challen, ... , Edward M Hill, ... et al. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365
• Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study 
  Michael J Tildesley, Anna Vassall, Steven Riley, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Benjamin D Atkins, John Edmunds, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.04.22.21255949
• Coughs, Colds and "Freshers' Flu" Survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008 
  Ken TD Eames, Maria L Tang, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Jonathan M Read, Matt J Keeling, Julia R Gog. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.31.21251220
• Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model 
  Julia R Gog, Edward M Hill, Leon Danon, Robin N Thompson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.14.21253544
• SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. 
  Jessica Enright^∗, Edward M Hill^∗, Helena B Stage*, Kirsty J Bolton*, Emily J Nixon, Emma Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R Gog, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  Isaac Newton Institute Preprint Series. (^∗ denotes joint first authors)
• Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on within-school COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study
  Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.02.11.21251587
• Precautionary breaks: planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of COVID-19 
  Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M. Hill, Graham F Medley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.10.13.201211813
• Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Malcolm G Semple, ISARIC4C Investigators, Michael J. Tildesley, Edward M. Hill. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20163782

Email:

Edward dot Hill at warwick dot ac dot uk

Office:

Room 5.14
Mathematical Sciences Building
University of Warwick
Coventry
CV4 7AL

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