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Response to the COVID-19 pandemic

As part of an MRC funded project “Mathematical modelling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic at the local, regional and national scale”, our team at Zeeman Institute:SBIDER (Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) is using real time data on the UK COVID-19 outbreak to provide robust predictions, gauging the ability of a model to predict future epidemic behaviour. We are investigating how our short- and long-term predictions change during an outbreak as more information becomes available, how this may effect forecasts of the appropriate control measures that could be introduced and when and how such policies should be relaxed. Finally, taking into account the potential for future waves of infection, we may use our models to examine adaptive control policies that can be implemented to reduce the number of deaths as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and to minimise the impact on the health service.

I am also a participant of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). SPI-M has been reporting to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), providing advice (based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology) on scientific matters related to the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The team includes Matt Keeling, Michael Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Ben Atkins and several colleagues in SBIDER.

Relevant Publications

Peer-reviewed papers



Edward dot Hill at warwick dot ac dot uk


Room 5.14
Mathematical Sciences Building
University of Warwick


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