As part of an MRC funded project “Mathematical modelling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic at the local, regional and national scale”, our team at Zeeman Institute:SBIDER (Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) is using real time data on the UK COVID-19 outbreak to provide robust predictions, gauging the ability of a model to predict future epidemic behaviour. We are investigating how our short- and long-term predictions change during an outbreak as more information becomes available, how this may effect forecasts of the appropriate control measures that could be introduced and when and how such policies should be relaxed. Finally, taking into account the potential for future waves of infection, we may use our models to examine adaptive control policies that can be implemented to reduce the number of deaths as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and to minimise the impact on the health service.

The team includes Matt Keeling, Michael Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Ben Atkins and several colleagues in SBIDER.

Relevant Publications

Peer-reviewed papers

• Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J. Keeling. (2021)
  Lancet Infectious Disease. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2
• Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Edward M. Hill, Erin Gorsich, Bridget Penman, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, AlexHolmes, Trystan Leng, Hector McKimm, Massimiliano Tamborrino, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley. (2021)
  PLoS Computational Biology 17(1):e1008619.doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619

Preprints

• Coughs, Colds and "Freshers' Flu" Survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008 
  Ken TD Eames, Maria L Tang, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Jonathan M Read, Matt J Keeling, Julia R Gog. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.31.21251220
• Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritisation for a fixed number of vaccine doses. 
  Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.15.21253542
• Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model 
  Julia R Gog, Edward M Hill, Leon Danon, Robin N Thompson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.14.21253544
• SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. 
  Jessica Enright^∗, Edward M Hill^∗, Helena B Stage*, Kirsty J Bolton*, Emily J Nixon, Emma Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R Gog, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  Isaac Newton Institute Preprint Series. (^∗ denotes joint first authors)
• Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on within-school COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study
  Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.02.11.21251587
• An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic 
  Emma R Southall, Alex Holmes, Edward M Hill, Benjamin D Atkins, Trystan Leng, Robin NThompson, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.02.10.21251484
• A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.11.18.20230649
• Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.10.15.20208454
• Precautionary breaks: planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of COVID-19 
  Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M. Hill, Graham F Medley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.10.13.201211813
• Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.09.22.20194183
• Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Malcolm G Semple, ISARIC4C Investigators, Michael J. Tildesley, Edward M. Hill. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20163782
• The impact of school reopening on the spread of COIVD-19 in England.  
  Matt J. Keeling, Michael J. Tildesley, Benjamin D Atkins, Bridget Penman, Emma Southall, GlenGuyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Hector McKimm, Erin Gorsich, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434.

Email:

Edward dot Hill at warwick dot ac dot uk

Office:

Room 5.14
Mathematical Sciences Building
University of Warwick
Coventry
CV4 7AL

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