Nathan Doyle
I am a second-year PhD student in the Mathematics for Real-World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training at the University of Warwick. My research interests lie in the field of infectious disease modelling, particularly how mathematical models can guide policy decisions in the early stages of an epidemic.
Publications
A scoping review and taxonomy of epidemiological-macroeconomic models for livestock diseases
Nathan Doyle, Gabrielle Bonnet, Matt Keeling, Michael Tildesley, W John Edmunds
Preventive Veterinary Medicine, September 2025
- Livestock disease outbreaks can generate significant macroeconomic harms, though few studies have combined epidemiological and macroeconomic analysis in a joint modelling framework. We reviewed existing approaches to epidemiological-macroeconomic modelling for livestock diseases, to identify challenges and opportunities for further model development.
- We systematically searched electronic databases for journal articles, preprints, working papers and grey literature. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. We analysed results descriptively and provided a critical appraisal of the strength, limitations and use cases of existing methods.
- We found 17 articles modelling the animal health and macroeconomic outcomes of livestock disease outbreaks. Models used outputs from epidemiological model simulations linked to a macroeconomic model, with no feedback from the economy to epidemiology. Macroeconomic modelling approaches consisted of the use of computable general equilibrium models, input output models and social accounting models. The literature was heavily dominated by considerations for hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease incursions in high-income settings.
- Priority for future research includes efforts to model a wider array of livestock diseases in endemic and low-income settings, further consideration for socioeconomic impacts and the need for improved data.
When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertaintyLink opens in a new window
Nathan Doyle, Fergus Cumming, Robin Thompson, Michael Tildesley
PLOS Computational Biology, July 2024
- While often necessary to contain an infectious disease outbreak, extensive interventions result in education, economic and societal harms. For the optimal response to be determined, the trade-off between the costs and benefits of disease control requires policy makers to define and communicate their objectives for managing the outbreak.
- We use a mathematical model to simulate outbreaks where social distancing is implemented when disease prevalence within hospital settings is high. We consider four distinct strategies for managing the outbreak based on different hospital prevalence thresholds for switching between levels of social distancing.
- The optimal strategy to implement depends on how a policy maker balances the importance of reducing the number of hospitalisations and the costs of maintaining interventions. The optimal strategy to implement at the beginning of the outbreak is further impacted by beliefs regarding the future availability of a vaccine.
- We develop a quantitative decision making framework which explicitly considers the objectives of policy makers and allows robust strategies for future disease outbreaks to be designed.
Projects
A mathematical modelling framework to identify optimal control strategies for future infectious disease outbreaks
- PhD project (Oct 2023 - Present), supervised by Prof Mike Tildesley and Dr Robin Thompson
Objectives matter: Using cost functions to explore optimal control strategies for future respiratory disease outbreaks
- MSc individual project (Jun 2023 - Sep 2023), supervised by Prof Mike Tildesley and Dr Robin Thompson
Using age data to improve targeted intervention campaigns against African sleeping sickness in Guinea
- MSc group project (Mar 2023 - Jun 2023), supervised by Prof Kat Rock and Dr Louise Dyson
Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of epileptic seizures
- BSc dissertation (Sep 2021 - Apr 2022), supervised by Dr Áine Byrne
Investigating vaccination rollout strategies for COVID-19 in Ireland
- Undergraduate summer research project (May 2021 - Aug 2021), supervised by Dr Áine Byrne
Conferences and Talks
- IDDConf, September 2025 Talk on "The case for using temporal healthcare capacity constraints for pandemic response optimisation"
- AMP Conference, July 2025 Poster on "When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty"
- SPAAM Seminar, May 2025 Talk on "The case for using temporal healthcare capacity constraints for pandemic response optimisation"
- MathSys Annual Retreat, May 2025 Poster on "When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty"
- BECMC, June 2024 Talk on "When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty"
- MathSys Annual Retreat, April 2024 Three-minute thesis talk (joint winner)
- JUNIPER Seminar, March 2024 Talk on "When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty"
- SPAAM Seminar, February 2024 Talk on "When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty"
Teaching Responsibilities
- Spring 2024 Supervisor, MA143 (Calculus II) and MA148 (Vectors & Matrices)
- Autumn 2023 Graduate Teaching Assistant, MA930 (Data Analysis & Machine Learning)
- Autumn 2023 Supervisor, MA138 (Sets & Numbers) and MA142 (Calculus I)
- Autumn 2021 Assistant Tutor, MATH10350 (Calculus I)
Education
- 2023-Present PhD Mathematics of Real-World Systems, University of Warwick
- 2022-2023 MSc Mathematics of Real-World Systems, University of Warwick (Distinction)
- 2018-2022 BSc Applied and Computational Mathematics, University College Dublin (First Class)
Other activities
- 2024-Present Events officer for the Warwick SIAM-IMA Student ChapterLink opens in a new window committee
Contact Information
Email: nathan.doyle [at] warwick.ac.uk
Office: D2.17Link opens in a new window Zeeman Building