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Elliot Vincent

I am a PhD student in the Mathematics for Real-World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training (MathSys II CDT), working in epidemiological modelling. My main focus is on wildlife, and agricultural diseases.

Current Research

Mathematical modelling of the finch trichomonosis outbreak in British greenfinches

Greenfinch sitting on a branch, looking grumpySupervisors: Dr Erin Gorsich, Prof Matt Keeling

Trichomonosis (caused by the parasite Trichomonas gallinae) is a disease which has long been endemic to pigeons, finches, and many other species. Historically widespread mortality as a result of the disease was not seen in finches, but in 2005 an outbreak began in Britain which has resulted in severe declines in the national greenfinch populations.

These population declines, and observances of sick greenfinches, have been recorded in data sets which have been routinely collected by the British Trust for Orthithology (BTO) and the Institute of Zoology at the Zoological Society of London (IoZ). In my research, I am developing models to represent the dynamics of trichomonosis in British greenfinch populations, and fitting these models to the data.

(Image attribution: Egor Plenkin from Karelia, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons)

Past Projects

MSc group project: Using age data to improve targeted intervention campaigns against African sleeping sickness in Guinea

Supervisor: Prof Kat Rock

African sleeping sickness, or gHAT (gambianese human African trypanosomiasis), is a disease which is targetted by the WHO for elimination of transmission by 2030. Much progress has been made towards this goal, but in many countries, including Guinea, new cases continue to arise. An enduring issue reported by screening teams is the low participation rates of working-aged men, who are also believed to be at high risk of infection.

Recent data collection efforts in the most at-risk regions of Guinea mean that information is now available about the age and gender of individuals who have tested positive for gHAT. In this project we built on the work of the Warwick HAT MEPP group; modifying their existing model to account for age and gender demographics, and using the newly available data to suggest demographic-based strategies which may improve the current testing procedure, and speed up the path towards elimination.

MMath research project: Towards a mathematical model for blood hormone levels in transgender patients taking testosterone replacement therapy

Supervisor: Dr David Wood

Mathematical models can be used to simulate the behaviour of biological systems, with one common application being that of systems in the human body. These theoretical models allow us to simulate the impact of medications on internal systems, in order to better regulate the internal processes which medication seeks to control, and to better understand any side-effects which can be incurred. Models of the "male" and "female" endocrine systems have been in use for decades, including to explore the effects of HRT (hormone replacement therapy) in cisgender patients. But little research has been done into how HRT interacts with the endocrine system of transgender patients; that is, individuals with a traditionally "female" endocrine system who take testosterone, and vice versa. Much of the treatment currently in practice is effective, but there has been little theoretical study of results found in clinical practice, or attempts to analytically understand the internal system which is being regulated during treatment.

In this project I began constructing a mathematical model for the endocrine system of transmasculine patients taking testosterone replacement therapy. This used existing models of the "female" endocrine system, and attempts to adapt these models to include the interactions of testosterone, with a particular focus on the different outcomes when different treatment frequencies are applied.


2023-present: MathSys II CDT, University of Warwick

PhD in Mathematics of Systems

2022-2023: MathSys II CDT, University of Warwick

MSc in Mathematics of Systems, with distinction

2017-2022: Zeeman Institute, University of Warwick

MMath, First-class with honours

A person standing in front of the pond in Tocil woods, surrounded by geese. They are holding a bag of seeds in one hand, and posing for the camera with the other.

Contact Information:


Office: D2.17, Zeeman building

Course: MathSys 1st Year PhD

Please call me Elliot, and use they/them or he/him pronouns


I am currently the Chair of MOSAIC. We are a group which exists to promote EDI (equality, diversity and inclusion) in the Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science departments. We aim to organise social events for under-represented groups in these fields, to network and meet others with similar experiences. We also organise events to platform and represent these groups within the departments.

We have members from, and run events for, staff and students from all levels of study. If you have any ideas about events you'd like to see, or want to get involved, please get in touch!

Our most recent event was Ada Lovelace Day in October 2023.

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