CONTAIN: CONtact Tracing, Infection and Transmission: An INterdisciplinary approach
A UKRI cross research council responsive mode (CRCRM) Project
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the ongoing threat from emerging zoonotic diseases and the need for improved national and global preparedness. Interpersonal contact and contact tracing are crucial in the transmission and control of communicable diseases. However, the concept of "contact" is often loosely defined, and there is limited information on the variety of interactions between individuals, especially in lower-income settings where epidemic threats frequently arise. Consequently, there have been few in-depth assessments of the complex nature of daily interactions or variations across settings. Additionally, there is little consensus on the interplay between biological, cultural, environmental, and psychological factors, or how historical events shape contact patterns. To address this, innovative interdisciplinary approaches are needed.
Research Objectives
Our research aims to better understand and model contacts in high-risk settings, specifically wet markets where animals are sold. We employ mathematical and geospatial modelling, epidemiology, social psychology, performance, cultural studies, and historical perspectives to examine contact patterns and behaviour in the context of zoonosis and infection transmission risk. This work is conducted in two distinct countries, Ghana and Thailand, which differ in their daily interaction patterns, population density, migration patterns, consumption of wild animals, and availability of barriers to disease spread.
Population Surveys
We begin with large general population surveys in both countries to understand market use and activities, informed by historical context and psychological research on risk perception and social interaction.
Observational Studies
We conduct ethnographic observations to capture the characteristics of markets and the interaction patterns between customers and traders. This approach helps us understand the social dynamics and environmental factors relevant to infection transmission.
Performance Methodologies
Performance methodologies are employed to investigate interpersonal contacts in marketplaces in great detail. By engaging traders in role-play interactions, we explore contact patterns using measures of key disease-risk factors such as distance, interpersonal touch, and interaction with surfaces. This immersive approach allows us to gain deeper insights into the behaviours and routines that contribute to disease transmission.
Transmission Modelling
Building on these findings, we model potential transmission both within markets, and from markets to the wider community using a Bayesian framework and agent-based modelling of contagion processes. Geospatial patterns of movement inform novel, feasible, and locally acceptable interventions to minimize human-to-human disease transmission.
Behavioural Change Simulation
With guidance from colleagues in cultural studies, psychology, and history, we simulate scenarios of behavioural change and optimize our models, relating this to pathogen attack rates and the trade-off between action acceptability and risk, informed by trader responses and historical evidence.
Dissemination and Future Research
We disseminate our findings through activities in the UK, Ghana, and Thailand, engaging with WHO country offices, Ministries of Health, and key stakeholders. This will help us plan further interdisciplinary research programs.
