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Publications from 1996


1. Semi-parametric density estimation by likelihood. Proc. Kolmogorov Semester on Non-parametric and Semi-parametric Problems. New York: Gordon and Breach.

2. Predicting Reoffending for Discretionary Release (with Tarling, R. and Marshall, P.). Home Office Research Study 150. London: HMSO

3. Hearing impairment and the log-normal distribution. (with Bowater, R., Machado, O. and Davies, A.) Applied Statistics, 45, 203-217.


4. Inference for non-random samples (with discussion) (with Li, H. G.), J. Roy. Statist Soc. B, 59, 55-96.

5. Estimating the risk of reoffending using exponential mixture models (with Heydari, F.).J. Roy, Statist. Soc. A, 160, 237-252.

6. Prediction Scores for risk assessment (with Wright, D.). in Law and Uncertainty: Risks and Legal Processes (ed. R. Baldwin). Kluwer Law International.

7. Fitting a normal distribution when the model is wrong (with Stride, C. B.). J. Inst.Statist. Math., 49, 601-614.

8. Using regression models for prediction: shrinkage and regression to the mean. Statist.Methods. Med. Res., 6 167-183.


9. Statistics and Risk. ESRC Risk and Human Behaviour Programme, Newsletter No. 2, 8-11.

10. The Offender Group Reconviction Scale; the statistical reconviction score for use by probation officers (with Marshall, P.). Applied Statistics, 47, 159-171

11. A class of local likelihood methods and near-parametric asymptotics (with Eguchi, S.), J. Roy. Statist. Soc, B, 60, 709-724.

12. Prediction and regression to the mean. Proc. 4th Iranian International Statistics Con-ference, 1-9.

13. Risk scores and ROC curves. Proc. 4th Iranian International Statistics Conference, 10-15.


14. What works?: selectivity models and meta analysis. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., A, 162, 95-109.

15. The effectiveness of risk scores: the logit rank plot. Applied Statistics, 48, 165-183.

16. Statistical modelling for risk assessment. Risk Management, 1, 35-49.

17. Overfitting and the Stein factor. in Statistical Modelling (proc. of the 14th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling). 1-9.


18. Reanalysis of epidemiological evidence on lung cancer and passive smoking. (with Shi, J. Q.) British Medical Journal, 7232, 417-418.

19. Calibration of predictions in regression. (with Krebs-Brown, A) Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods (invited issue), 29, 1973-1986.

20. Meta analysis, funnel plots and sensitivity analysis. (with Shi. J. Q.) Biostatistics, 1, 247-262.

21. A sensitivity analysis for publication bias in systematic reviews. (with Shi, J. Q.) Statist.Meth. in Med. Res., 10, 251-265.


22. Local sensitivity approximations for selectivity bias. (with Eguchi, S.) JRSSB, 63, 871 895.

23. Recent developments in discriminant analysis from an information geometric point of view. (with S. Eguchi) J. Korean Statist. Soc. 30, 247-263.


24. A class of logistic-type discriminant functions. (with Eguchi, S.) Biometrika, 89, 1-22.

25. Publication bias and meta analysis for 2 × 2 tables: an average Markov chain Monte Carlo EM algorithm. (with Shi, J. Q.) JRSSB, 64, 221-236.

26. Overestimation of the receiver operating characteristic curve for logistic regression. (with Corbett, P.) Biometrika, 89, 315-331.

27. Extra uncertainty from incomplete data. Proceedings of the 21st International Biometric Conference (invited papers, July 2002), 129-136.

28. Likelihood inference for location, scale and shape. (with Barnard, G. A.) J. Statist, Planning and Inference, in press.


29. A Simple Confidence Interval for Meta Analysis (comment on paper by Sidik and Jonkman). Statistics in Medicine, 22, 2667-72


30. Missing at random, likelihood ignorability and model completeness (with Lu, G.). Annals of Statistics, 32, 754-765.

31. Meta-Analysis for Trend Estimation (with Shi, J.Q.). Statistices in Medicine, 23, 3-19.

32. A Bound for Publication Bias based on the Fraction of Unpublished Studies (with Jackson). Biometrics, 60, 146-53.


33. Local model uncertainty and incomplete data bias (with discussion) (with Eguchi, S.) JRSSB, 67, 754-765.

34. Sensitivity analysis for informative censoring in parametric survival models (with Siannis, F. and Lu, G.) Biostatistics, 6, 77-91.

35. Modelling reporting bias: the operative mortality rate for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. (with Jackson, D and Suttom A) JRSSA, 166, 737-752.

36. The downside of publication. Significance, 2, 154-157


37. Publication bias affected the estimate of postoperative nausea in an acupoint stimulation systematic review. (with Lee, A., Henmi, M. Gin, T. and Chung, T. CK.) J. of Clinical Epidemiology, 59, 980-983.

38. Interpreting the Kullback-Leiber Divergence with the Neyman-Pearson lemma. (with Eguchi, S.) J. of Multivariate Analysis, 97, 2034-2040.

39. Confidence intervals and P-values for meta analysis with publication bias. (with Henmi, M. and Eguichi, S.) Biometrics, 62, to appear.