Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, The CAGE Background Briefing Series No. 49, July 2016

Sterling fell dramatically following the announcement of a date for the UK’s referendum on whether to remain an EU member. This column reports the views of leading experts on whether the possibility of ‘Brexit’ would lead to further volatility in financial markets and the broader economy. There is near unanimity in the monthly Centre for Macroeconomics survey that the Brexit question will increase financial volatility and will pose economic costs in the medium term. Financial volatility can be expected to be especially high if polls remain close. Lack of clarity about the UK’s economic arrangements with the EU following Brexit are the main concern for the medium term.

Political Economy