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Discussion Papers

 

This list is arranged in reverse chronological order. Most of the Discussion Papers were subsequently published, after revision, and full publication details are provided. Summaries of some of the unpublished Discussion Papers are available by clicking on the title; these appeared in Bureau Newsletters at the time the Discussion Papers were issued.

54. Monetary transmission channels, monetary regimes and consumption behaviour, by Silvia Sgherri (September 1999)

53. Properties of the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Treasury model, by Keith B. Church (September 1998)
(Revised version published in National Institute Economic Review, No.169 (1999), 96-104)

52. Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice, by Peter R. Mitchell, Joanne E. Sault and Kenneth F. Wallis (October 1998)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 17 (2000), 171-193)

51. Asymmetric density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England’s fan chart, by Kenneth F. Wallis (July 1998)
(Revised version published in National Institute Economic Review, No.167 (1999), 106-112)

50. Technical progress and the natural rate in models of the UK economy, by Keith B. Church, Peter R. Mitchell, Joanne E. Sault and Kenneth F. Wallis (February 1998)
(Revised version published in National Institute Economic Review, No.164 (1998), 80-89. Reprinted in Econometric Modelling: Techniques and Applications (S. Holly and M.R. Weale, eds), pp.254-275. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000)

49. Inflation target bands and the Bank of England’s fairly substantial lump of inflation uncertainty, by Silvia Sgherri and Kenneth F. Wallis (October 1997)

48. Evaluating density forecasts of inflation: the Survey of Professional Forecasters, by Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay and Kenneth F. Wallis (September 1997)
(Revised version published in Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honour of Clive W.J. Granger (R.F. Engle and H. White, eds), pp.76-90. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999)

47. The Treasury forecasting record: an evaluation, by Chris Melliss (August 1997)

46. GDP-spillovers in multi-country models, by Rudy Douven and Marga Peeters (March 1997)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 15 (1998), 163-195)

45. The sensitivity of global model simulations to fiscal closure rules, by Keith B. Church, Peter R. Mitchell, Joanne E. Sault and Kenneth F. Wallis (September 1996)
(Revised and extended version issued as Discussion Paper No.52)

44. Short-run rigidities and long-run equilibrium in large-scale macroeconometric models, by Keith B. Church, Peter R. Mitchell and Kenneth F. Wallis (August 1996)
(Revised version published in Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling (S. Brakman, H. van Ees and S.K. Kuipers, eds), pp.221-241. London: Macmillan, 1998)

43. Using macroeconometric models in market planning: a simplified approach, by K.G. Knight and D.S. Turner (January 1996)

42. The public-private savings mirror and causality relations among private savings, investment and (twin) deficits: a full modelling approach, by Marga Peeters (January 1996)
(Revised version published in Journal of Policy Modelling, 21 (1999), 579-605)

41. Investment, R&D and trade in manufactures, by Robert Woods (November 1995)

40. Comparing global economic models, by Peter R. Mitchell, Joanne Sault, Peter N. Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis (October 1995)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 15 (1998), 1-48)

39. Which monetary regime for Europe?: A quantitative evaluation, by Warwick J. McKibbin with Tomas Bok (May 1995)
(Revised version published (as "The European Monetary Union: were there alternatives to the ECB? A quantitative evaluation") in Journal of Policy Modeling, 23 (2001), 775-806.)

38. The effect of the wedge and productivity on the NAIRU in five major OECD economies, by David S. Turner and S. Rauffet (November 1994)

37. Forecasting consumers' expenditure: a comparison between econometric and neural network models, by Keith B. Church and Stephen P. Curram (November 1994)
(Revised version published in International Journal of Forecasting, 12 (1996), 255-267)

36. Output price determination and the business cycle, by Peter N. Smith (October 1994)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 17 (2000), 49-69)

35. Targeting inflation: comparative optimal control exercises on models of the UK economy, by Keith B. Church, Peter R. Mitchell, Peter N. Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis (October 1994)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 13 (1996), 169-184)

34. Policy simulations and long-run sustainability in forward-looking macroeconometric models, by Peter N. Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis (February 1994)
(Revised version published in Methods and Applications of Economic Dynamics (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken and S.K. Kuipers, eds), pp.203-221. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1995)

33. Macroeconometric Modelling. Table of Contents and Editor's Introduction, by Kenneth F. Wallis (January 1994). Published in The International Library of Critical Writings in Econometrics 2. (Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1994)

32. Balance achieving policies: a comparative policy optimisation study on four UK models, by Jeremy Bray, Andrey Kuleshov, Ali Enis Uysal and Paul Walker (July 1993)
(Revised version published in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 9, No.3 (1993), 69-82)

31. Aggregation and homogeneity of prices in models of the UK economy, by Keith B. Church and Kenneth F. Wallis (August 1992)
(Revised version published in Money, Inflation and Employment (S.Holly, ed.), pp.194-221. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1994)

30. Comparing macroeconometric models: a review article, by Kenneth F. Wallis (July 1992)
(Revised version published in Economica, 60 (1993), 225-237)

29. Counterfactual analysis with macroeconometric models: the UK economy, 1979-84, by Kenneth F. Wallis and John D. Whitley (May 1992)

28. UK policies, non-price competitiveness, and convergence to an EMU - an inter-model comparison, by John Whitley, Jeremy Bray, Stephen Hall, Peter Westaway and Geoff Meen (February 1992)

27. Comparative simulation analysis of the European multicountry models, by John D. Whitley (September 1991)
(Revised version published in Journal of Forecasting, 11 (1992), 423-458)

26. Properties of the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate in models of the UK economy, by Keith B. Church (September 1991)
(Revised version published in National Institute Economic Review, No.141 (1992), 62-70)

25. Should large-scale macroeconometric models have simple long-run properties?, by David S. Turner (August 1990)
(Revised version published (as "The determinants of the NAIRU response in simulations on the Treasury model") in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 3 (1991), 225-242)

24. Seasonality in large-scale macroeconometric models, by Paul G. Fisher and Kenneth F. Wallis (June 1990)
(Revised version published in Journal of Forecasting, 11 (1992), 255-270)

23. The exchange rate, forward expectations, and the properties of macroeconometric models, by Paul G. Fisher and David S. Turner (May 1990)
(Revised version published (as "Forward unit root exchange-rate dynamics and the properties of large-scale macroeconometric models") in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run (C.P. Hargreaves, ed.), pp.207-228. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1993)

22. Sources of error in forecasts and expectations: UK economic models, 1984-88, by Kenneth F. Wallis and John D. Whitley (May 1990)
(Revised version published in Journal of Forecasting, 10 (1991), 231-253)

21. The long run of macroeconometric models, by M. Deleau, C. le Van and P. Malgrange (July 1989)
(Revised version published in Essays in Honor of Edmond Malinvaud, Vol.2, Macroeconomics ( P. Champsaur et al.), pp.205-225. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1991)

20. Econometric evaluation of the exchange rate in models of the UK economy, by P.G. Fisher, S.K. Tanna, D.S. Turner, K.F. Wallis and J.D. Whitley (July 1989)
(Revised version published in Economic Journal, 100 (1990), 1230-1244)

19. The role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting, by David S. Turner (April 1989)
(Revised version published in Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1990), 315-345)

18. The importance of the distinction between long- and short-term unemployment in UK macroeconometric models, by David S. Turner and John D. Whitley (February 1989)
(Revised version published in Applied Economics, 23 (1991), 1281-1297)

17. The historical tracking performance of UK macroeconomic models 1978-85, by Paul G. Fisher and Kenneth F. Wallis (December 1988)
(Revised version published in Economic Modelling, 7 (1990), 179-197)

16. Does the UK face a balance of payments constraint on growth? – a quantitative analysis using the LBS and NIESR models, by David S. Turner (September 1988)
(Revised version published in Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies (N. Christodoulakis, ed.), pp.423-429. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1990)

15. Explaining and resolving differences in the properties of large-scale macroeconometric models, by D.S. Turner, K.F. Wallis and J.D. Whitley (July 1988)
(Revised version published (as "Differences in the properties of large-scale macroeconometric models: the role of labour market specifications") in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4 (1989), 317-344)

14. A ready reckoner package for macroeconomics teaching, by Garry Macdonald and David S. Turner (July 1988)
(Revised version published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 51 (1989), 193-211)

13. Iterative techniques for solving simultaneous equation systems: a view from the economics literature, by P.G. Fisher and A.J. Hughes Hallett (June 1988)
(Revised version published in Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 24 (1988), 241-255)

12. Using macroeconometric models to evaluate policy proposals, by D.S. Turner, K.F. Wallis and J.D. Whitley (January 1988)
(Revised version published in Policymaking with Macroeconomic Models (A.J.C. Britton, ed.), pp.103-150. Aldershot: Gower, 1989)

11. Some recent developments in macroeconometric modelling in the United Kingdom, by Kenneth F. Wallis (August 1987)
(Revised version published in Australian Economic Papers, 27 (1988), 7-25)

10. Should econometricians use Newton methods for model solution?, by A.J. Hughes Hallett and P.G. Fisher (August 1987)
(Revised version published (as "On econometric structures and model solution methods") in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (1990), 317-330)

9. Long-run properties of large-scale macroeconometric models, by Kenneth F. Wallis and John D. Whitley (January 1987)
(Revised version published in Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 6/7 (1987), 207-224)

8. Hours reductions within large-scale macroeconomic models: conflict between theory and empirical application, by J.D. Whitley and R.A. Wilson (November 1986)
(Revised version published in Employment, Unemployment and Labour Utilization (R.A. Hart, ed.), pp.228-252. London: Unwin Hyman, 1988)

7. Financing rules and output variability: evidence from UK macroeconomic models, by P.G.Fisher, K.F. Wallis and J.D. Whitley (May 1986)

6. On the role of simulation in the statistical evaluation of econometric models, by Adrian R. Pagan (January 1986)
(Revised version published in Journal of Econometrics, 40 (1989), 125-139)

5. Forecasting with an econometric model: the ‘ragged edge’ problem, by Kenneth F. Wallis (March 1985)
(Revised version published in Journal of Forecasting, 5 (1986), 1-14)

4. Efficient solution techniques for dynamic nonlinear rational expectations models, by P.G. Fisher, S. Holly and A.J. Hughes Hallett (March 1985)
(Revised version published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 10 (1986), 139-145)

3. Models of the UK economy and the real wage-employment debate, by M.J. Andrews, D.N.F. Bell, P.G. Fisher, K.F. Wallis and J.D. Whitley (December 1984)
(Revised version published in National Institute Economic Review, No.112 (1985), 41-52)

2. On evaluating the importance of nonlinearity in large macroeconometric models, by Paul G. Fisher and Mark Salmon (June 1984)
(Revised version published in International Economic Review, 27 (1986), 625-646)

1. Multiparameter iterative techniques for solving econometric models, by A.J. Hughes Hallett (January 1984)
(Revised version published (as "Multiparameter extrapolation and deflation methods for solving equation systems") in International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 7 (1984), 793-802)