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Title: Wildlife and Conflict: The Cost of Protecting Biodiversity

Abstract:

Our planet is experiencing the first human-induced mass extinction of species. In response,

policymakers have implemented international trade bans to preserve rare animals and forest

species such as rhinos, elephants, and rosewood. Yet little research examines their consequences.

Combining georeferenced habitat maps of wild animals and trees with armed conflict data, I

uncover sizeable adverse effects of international trade ban treaties. First, event-study estimates

reveal that bans raise the likelihood of conflict in habitat areas by about 40%. Two findings

support a windfall-related conflict mechanism. For elephant ivory, a natural experiment shows

that, in response to supply-side policies, prices change, which in turn changes the likelihood

of conflict events in their habitat. Given the elephant’s broad habitat, the implied magnitude

exceeds that of well-studied conflict minerals. For wild trees, satellite data show that harvesting

shifts from high- to low-capacity states once bans are imposed, generating rents that spark

violence. An analysis of battles’ locations before and after the policy reveals that militias and

rebels expand into new, distant areas and are more likely to gain territorial control, consistent

with a feasibility mechanism in which windfalls relax budget constraints. A quantitative model

suggests that a targeted policy restricting trade in states with strong institutions and smaller

wildlife stocks can conserve resources while limiting conflict. Given these spillovers, international

trade bans, if maintained, should be accompanied by state-building support for low-income

countries, which often lack enforcement capacity.

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nyIPlpsm7AFibk5cBvQFmN_Osl8f8IC-/view