Title: Berlinguer, I Love You (Still): The Downstream Effects of Expressive Voting, joint with Elias Dinas (EUI)

 Abstract: What is the effect of a vote cast on expressive grounds on subsequent political behaviour? Theories of voting distinguish between instrumental and expressive motives behind voting, but their long-term partisan implications remain largely ignored. We delve into this question by focusing on a rare instance of expressive voting: support for the Italian Communist Party (PCI) in the 1984 EP election, marked by the death of PCI’s charismatic leader, Enrico Berlinguer, only six days prior to the poll day. PCI became the most voted party, for the first time in its history. Are votes cast on expressive grounds more likely to remain within the party and its ideological domain? If so, did such effect persist after PCI dismissed its brand? Using the difference in the vote share for PCI between 1979 and 1984, we obtain a municipal measure of empathy-based support for the party. We find that the change in PCI votes predicts future vote for the left, even after PCI is dismantled in 1991. We also instrument vote for Berlinguer in 1984 through the district (Lazio, Marche, Tuscany and Umbria) in which he ran both in 79 and 84 (i.e., after his death). People in this area had an additional motivation to vote for PCI, i.e., to actually cast a ballot for the deceased leader. Using such distinction as an instrument for the “Berlinguer vote”, we find that expressive vote generates a long-term loyalty to the left. A closer look into the exact party trajectories reveals a larger effect for radical left-wing alternatives.

Location: Teams (Please find the link below)

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3aeafd670486bc4ed6be08da79cf05d9ca%40thread.tacv2/1644956120914?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2209bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22282d13eb-4c12-413a-b24a-e55af45e44c1%22%7dLink opens in a new window