Work in progress

Trade, knowledge diffusion and specialisation (JMP)

Working papers

Estimating non-balanced growth path: three-factor model and structural change (thesis chapter 2)

Abstract: This paper proposes a new method of estimating non-stationary nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models with an application in the structural transformation context. By combining different sectoral growth rates with different factor intensities, I construct a three-sector general equilibrium model which generates a hump-shaped path for the size of the manufacturing sector while replicating the observed pattern of increasing and decreasing shares in services and agriculture. Using data for the United States and Sweden over the past decades, I implement a relaxation algorithm to solve the model for non-stationary paths of sectoral shares for given parameter values and then estimate the best fit for the model’s parameters. A counterfactual exercise for China shows the importance of trade in explaining the structural change. This method can be easily generalised to solve other similar problems.

Publication

The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains (Figure 1 clearer version), Review of International Economics, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12595. Matlab code (thesis chapter 1)

Abstract: This paper argues that the lockdown of Hubei province in China due to the Coronavirus outbreak provides a natural experiment to study the importance of China’s role in global value chains. Since the lockdown started during the Lunar New Year, Hubei’s migrant workers who went home could not return to workplaces in other provinces, resulting in a massive labor supply shock. I feed the supply shock through a Ricardian model with intermediate goods and sectoral linkages to study trade and welfare effects across several economies. While welfare in China is the most negatively affected, the shock also has sizeable negative implications for the US and the UK.

Teaching

2019/2020

EC107 Economics1 (tutorial) Office hours: Friday 2-4 pm, S0.86

2020/2021

EC107 Economics1 (tutorial) Office hours: Monday 2-4 pm, Online.

2021/2022

EC312 International Economics (tutorial)

EC107 Economics1 (tutorial)

Office hours: Wednesday 2 - 3 pm, Online, and Thursday 11- 12 am in person.

Please book a slot first and inform me of your questions before joining the meeting.

Tuesdays (5th, 12th, 19th, 26th July) - 9:00 - 10:00 am.

Tuesdays (2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd, 30th August) - 11:00 - 12:00 am

Tuesday 6th September: 3:00 - 5:00 pm