Events

Wednesday 1 February, 3-4.30pm

Dr Kaisa Hinkkainen (University of Leeds)

Analyzing the Impact of Micro-dynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination and Outcomes

E2.02 (PAIS meeting room)

Abstract

How do different diffusion patterns of civil war violence influence the likelihood and type of conflict termination? Recent advances in the literature on micro- dynamics of civil wars have found that the location and intensity matters in resolving the bargaining problem between the warring parties. We build on this theoretical framework by arguing that whether or not battles diffuse is less important for conflict termination than how they diffuse. Informational value of battles should in principle solve the bargaining problem, but diffusion patterns of battles can be a double-edged sword. While diffusion of battles helps insurgent survival and provides information about the belligerents' resolve and capabilities, it can also exasperate commitment problems. We test our argument by creating two distinct diffusion patterns of battles: distant and proximate. Our empirical findings support the argument that distant diffusion of battles make conflicts less likely to terminate in both rebel and government favorable ways.