Warwick developing a utility decision support tool to evaluate the efficacy of different stochastic countermeasure strategies to COVID 19 including health risk to the population
Professor Jim Smith, from the Department of Statistics and one of the Food GRP leads , is heading a team of researchers from Warwick University and the Alan Turing Institute in developing a fast multiattribute utility decision support tool. This is designed to enable the general public to evaluate the efficacy of different stochastic countermeasure strategies to COVID 19.
One critical issue at the current time is to balance in a rational way the short term health risks to the population - both directly and indirectly caused by COVID 19 against the usually more long term health risks caused by countermeasures. In particular the medium and long term effects of poverty and destitution can be expected to dramatically decrease life expectancy in the general population. The imposition of severe countermeasures can therefore be seen as exacerbating long term health outcomes.
Food poverty - as witnessed for example through the increased use of food banks - has been shown to be one of the more sensitive indicators of how poverty is increasing in the general population. Dr Martine Barons, also a Food GRP lead from the Department of Statistics and Jim are currently using the broad expertise of the Warwick Food GRP to develop simple food measures of poverty and so indicators to determine this and other deleterious effects of COVID 19 to set these against the more immediate health risks.