Methodology

One of WIDER's strengths is its links with cutting-edge mathematical and statistical developments. Motivated by a range of applied problems in epidemiological modelling and statistics, we develop exact and approximate methods in a variety of areas.

Current active research includes:

Recent Selected Publications

2015

Pellis, L., Spencer, S.E.F., House, T. (2015) Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks. Mathematical Biosciences
265 65 - 81

Dawson, P.M., Werkman, M., Brooks-Pollock, E., Tildesley, M.J. (2015) Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: Modelling disease spread with partial data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282 1 - 9

Pellis, L., Ball, F., Bansal, S., Eames, K., House, T., Isham, V., Trapman, P. (2015) Eight challenges for network epidemic models. Epidemics 10 58 - 62 .

Ball, F., Britton, T., House, T., Isham, V., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., Scalia Tomba, G. (2015) Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models. Epidemics (in press)

Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R.M., Andreasen, V., Bansal, S., de Angellis, D., Dye, C., Eames, K.T.D., Edmunds, W.J., Frost, S.D.W., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., House, T., Isham, V., Klepac, P., Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Metcalf, C.J.E., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., Pulliam, J.R.C., Roberts, M.G., Viboud, C., Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration (2015) Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science 347 6227

Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy? Epidemics 11 7-13

Brand, S.P.C., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J (2015) Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: A spectral method. J. Theo. Biol. 370 121-134

2014

Klepac, P., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K. (2014) Six challenges in the eradication of infectious diseases. Epidemics (in press)

Hancock, P.A., Rehman, Y., Hall, I.M., Edeghere, O., Danon, L., House, T.A., Keeling, M.J. (2014) Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set. PLoS Comp. Biol. 10 e1003809.

Lessler, J., Edmunds, W.J., Halloran, M.E., Hollingsworth, T.D., Lloyd, A.L. (2014) Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies. Epidemics (in press)

Oates, C.J., Amos, R., Spencer, S.E.F. (2014) Quantifying the multi-scale performance of network inference algorithms. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 13 ( 5 ) 611 - 631

Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O., Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-231

Britton, T., House, T., Lloyd, A.L., Mollison, D., Riley, S., Trapman, P. (2014) Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission. Epidemics. (in press).

Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 359 45 - 53

House, T. (2014) Non-Markovian stochastic epidemics in extremely heterogeneous populations. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 9 153 - 160

Graham, M., House, T. (2014) Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks. Journal of Mathematical Biology 68 1583 - 1605

House, T. (2014) Heterogeneous clustered random graphs. European Physics Letters 105 art no 68006

Gomes, M.G.M, Lipsitch, M., Wargo, A.R., Kurath, G., Rebelo, C., Medley, G.F. & Coutinho, A. (2014) A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts. PLoS Pathog 10(3): e1003849. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1003849

Ritchie, M., Berthouze, L., House, T., Kiss, I.Z (2014) Higher-order structure and epidemic dynamics in clustered networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology , 348 21 - 32

Rock, K., Brand, S., Moir, J., Keeling, M.J. (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics , 77 ( 2 ) , art. no. 026602