Models

Over the years, researchers at the University of Warwick and its predecessor institutions (National Vegetable Research Station, HRI) have developed models to predict certain events associated with crop production and focused mainly on vegetables grown outdoors. Most of these models were associated with forecasting pest infestations and infection with pathogens. They were mainly incorporated into the MORPH decision support software with funding from AHDB/HDC and Defra. The MORPH software is now out of date and steps are being taken to upgrade at least some of the models.

Models that have been used recently to advise growers are for a range of pests:

• Cabbage root fly
• Carrot fly
• Pollen beetle
• Large Narcissus Fly
• Willow carrot aphid
• Lettuce root aphid
• Currant-lettuce aphid
• Black bean aphid
• Turnip moth (cutworm)
• Bean seed fly (under development)

These are some of the publications relevant to the pest models:

Phelps, K., Collier, R.H., Reader, R.J. and Finch, S., 1993. Monte Carlo simulation method for forecasting the timing of pest insect attacks. Crop Protection, 12(5), pp.335-342.

Cabbage root fly

Collier, R.H. & Finch, S. (1983). Completion of diapause in field populations of the cabbage root fly (Delia radicum). Entomologia experimentalis et applicata 34, 186‑192.

Collier, R.H. & Finch, S. (1983). Effects of intensity and duration of low temperatures in regulating diapause development of the cabbage root fly (Delia radicum). Entomologia experimentalis et applicata 34, 193‑200.

Collier, R. H. & Finch, S. (1986). Accumulated temperatures for predicting cabbage root fly, Delia radicum (L.), (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) emergence in the spring. Bulletin of Entomological Research 75, 395‑404.

Finch, S. & Collier, R.H. (1983). Emergence of flies from overwintering populations of cabbage root fly pupae. Ecological Entomology 8, 29‑36.

Finch, S. & Collier, R.H. (1983). Emergence of flies from overwintering populations of cabbage root fly pupae. Ecological Entomology 8, 29‑36.

Finch, S. & Collier, R. H. (1985). Laboratory studies on aestivation in the cabbage root fly (Delia radicum). Entomologia experimentalis et applicata 38, 137‑143.

Finch, S., Collier, R. H. & Skinner, G. (1986). Local population differences in emergence of cabbage root flies from south‑west Lancashire: implications for pest forecasting and population divergence. Ecological Entomology 11, 139‑145.

Carrot fly

Collier, R.H., Elliott, M.S. & Finch, S. (1994). Development of the overwintering stages of the carrot fly, Psila rosae, (Diptera:Psilidae). Bulletin of Entomological Research 84, 469-476.

Collier, R.H. & Finch, S. (1996). Field and laboratory studies on the effects of temperature on the development of the carrot fly (Psila rosae F.). Annals of Applied Biology 128, 1-11.

Pollen beetle

Finch, S., Collier, R.H. and Elliott, M.S., 1990. Seasonal variations in the timing of attacks of bronzed blossom beetles (Meligethes aeneus/Meligethes viridescens) on horticultural brassicas. In Brighton Crop Protection Conference, Pests and Diseases-1990. Vol. 1. (pp. 349-354). British Crop Protection Council.

Large narcissus fly

COLLIER, R.H. and Finch, S., 1992. The effects of temperature on development of the large narcissus fly (Merodon equestris). Annals of applied biology, 120(3), pp.383-390.

Willow carrot aphid

Collier, R.H., Wilson, D., Jukes, A., Elliott, M.S., Warmington, R. and Clarkson, J., 2014, September. Research on integrated pest and disease management in carrot crops. In International Symposium on Carrot and Other Apiaceae 1153 (pp. 225-230).

Lettuce root aphid

Collier, R.H., Davies, J.S., Roberts, M., Leatherland, M., Runham, S.R. and Blood Smyth, J.A., 1994. Monitoring and forecasting the time of attack of the lettuce root aphid, Pemphigus bursarius L. Bulletin OILB SROP (France).

Turnip moth

Bowden, J., Cochrane, J., Emmett, B.J., Minall, T.E. and Sherlock, P.L., 1983. A survey of cutworm attacks in England and Wales, and a descriptive population model for Agrotis segetum (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Annals of Applied Biology, 102(1), pp.29-47.