Simon French (University of Warwick)

Handling Uncertainties in Emergency Management

Emergency planners and managers continually encounter uncertainties. How should they face up to and deal with uncertainty? Some can be modelled, but many uncertainties are deep in that they are difficult to estimate because of a dearth of data. Moreover, it is usually necessary to communicate the uncertainty with a range of stakeholders. How should this been done without creating further scares. The talk will summarise my experiences in a number of fields from nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukushima, health scares and food safety incidents.