# Publications

##### Selected Recent Papers, Research Reports and books since 2008

##### Papers currently arXived & Submitted

###### Statistics and Probability

Robertson, G. Wilson, A.L. & Smith, J.Q. (2024) "Chain Event Graphs for assessing Activity-Level Propositions in Forensic Science in Relation to Drug Traces on Bank Notes" arXiv 2404,03778v1 (submitted invited revision)

Dawid, A.P., Dotto, F. ,Grave, M., Kadane, J.B., Montera, J., Robertson, G.. Smith, J.Q. & Wilson, A.L.(2024) "A Comparison of Graphical Method in the Case of the Murder of Meredith Kercher" arXiv 2403.16628 (submitted invited revision)

Jewson, J. Smith, J.Q. & Holmes C. (2024) "On the Stability of General Bayesian Inference" arXiv (invited revision now resubmitted)

###### Decision Analysis and Engineering

Dent CJ, Sanchez N, Shenvi, A, Smith, JQ, Wilson, AL & Yu,, X (2022) "Resource adequacy and Capacity Procurement" (submitted)

###### Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

##### 2024 Refereed Publications

###### Statistics & Probability

Wilkerson, R.L.& Smith, J.Q. (2024) "Bayesian Diagnostics for Chain Event Graphs" arXiv, Bayesian Analysis (to appear)

###### Decision Analysis and Engineering

Yu, X. and Smith J.Q. (2024) "Hierarchical Causal Analysis of Natural Languages on a Chain Event Graph" arXiv, Risk Analysis (to appear)

Dent CJ, Sanchez N, Shenvi, A, Smith, JQ, Wilson, AL & Yu,, X (2024) "Resource adequacy and Capacity Procurement: Metrics and Decision Support Analysis" J of Power and Energy (to appear)

##### 2023 Refereed Publications

###### Statistics & Probability

Shenvi, A, Bunnin, FO & Smith, JQ (2023)" A Bayesian decision support system for counteracting activities of terrorist groups" Journal of the Royal Statistics Society Series A

Carter, J.S., Rossell, D. & Smith J. Q. (2023) "Partial correlation graphical LASSO" Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 51(1) DOI:10.1111/sjos.12675Link opens in a new window

Strong, P & Smith, JQ(2023) "Scalable Model Selection for Staged Trees: Mean-posterior Clustering and Binary Trees" Bayesian Statistics, New Generations New Approaches (pp.23-34) DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-42413-7_3

###### Decision Analysis and Engineering

(2023) "Using infinite server queues with partial information for occupancy prediction" Journal of the Operational Research Society, DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2189002

##### 2022 Refereed Publications

###### Statistics & Probability

Barons ,M. Fonseca T., Davies, A. & Smith, J.Q.(2022) "An Integrating decision support system for addressing food security in the UK" The Royal Statistical Society Series A, DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12771

Strong P., McAlpine, A. & Smith, J.Q. (2022) 'Towards A Bayesian Analysis of Migration Pathways using Chain Event Graphs of Agent Based Models' Proc of BaYSM

###### Decision Analysis and Engineering

##### 2021 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics & Probability

Bunnin, F.O. & Smith, J.Q. (2021) “A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations” Bayesian Analysis :arXiv:1907.01894

Yu, X. & Smith, J.Q. (2021) "Causal Algebras on Chain Event Graphs with Informed Missingness for System Failure", Entropy, 23, 10, 1308

Bunnin, F.O. and Smith, J.Q. (2021) "A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Violent Criminal Threat" Proceedings of the JMS 2021

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Perrone V., Palma, M., Hengchen S., Vatri A., Smith, J.Q., McGillivray, B. (2021) “Lexical Semantic Change for Ancient Greek and Latin" in "Computational approaches to semantic change" Eds. Tahmsasebi, N., Borin, L. Jatowt, A., Xu, Y. & Hengchen, S. Ch.9, p 287- 310 Language Science Press

###### In Decision Analysis

Wilkerson, R.L.& Smith, J.Q. (2021) "Customised Structural Elicitation" In Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis Eds. Bedford T., French, S. Hamea, A.M. & Nane. G.F. Springer p 83 -114 arXiv:1807.03693

(2021) "Safeguarding the nation’s digital memory: towards a Bayesian model of digital preservation risk, Archives and Records", 42:1, 58-78, DOI: 10.1080/23257962.2021.1873121

Strong, P. , Shenvi, A. Yu, X., Wynn, H.P., Papamichail, N. & Smith, J.Q. (2021) "Building a Bayesian Decision Support System for Evaluating COVID-19 Countermeasure Strategies" Journal of the Operations Research Society

##### 2020 Refereed Publications

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Shenvi A. & Smith J.Q. (2020) “Constructing a Chain Event Graph from a Staged Tree." arXiv:2006.15857 Proc. of 10th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Nov 2020.

###### In Decision Analysis

Leonelli, M., Riccomagno,E. & Smith,J.Q (2020) “Coherent combination of probabilistic outputs for group decision making: an algebraic approach” OR Spectrum Springer

Yu, X , Smith, JQ & Nichols, L (2020) "Bayesian Learning of Causal Relationships for System

Reliability" Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management (ISRERM 2020), Beijing.

##### 2019 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Costa, L., Smith, J.Q. & Nichols, T. (2019) " A Group Analysis using the Multiregression Dynamic Models of fMRI networked time series " Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 198, 43 -61

Shenvi A., Smith J.Q., Walton R., Eldridge S. (2019) "Modelling with Non-stratified Chain Event Graphs". In: Argiento R., Durante D., Wade S. (eds) Bayesian Statistics and New Generations. BAYSM 2018. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 296. Springer, Cham.

###### In Decision Analysis

Levotin P., Walton, J.L., Auffer, L. Barons, M.J. ,Barons, E. French,S. Houssineau, J. Kleinberg, J. McBride, M. and Smith, J.Q. (2019) "Visualising Uncertainty: A short Introduction" Sad Press ISBN:978:1 -912802 -05 - 0

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Perrone, M. Palma, S.N Hengchen, A. Vatri, J.Q. Smith, B. McGillivray (2019) “GASC: Genre-Aware Semantic Change for Ancient Greek” Proceedings of LChange' 19

##### 2018 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Collazo, R.A., Gorgen, C & Smith, J.Q.(2018) "Chain Event Graphs" Chapman Hall February (229 pages)

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2018) "Equivalence classes of Staged Trees" Bernoulli, Vol. 24, No. 4A, 2676-2692.

Schwab S.,Harbord, R., Zerbi, V., Elliott, L; , Afyounis,S., Smith, J.Q., Woolrich, M.W., Smith, S.M. , Nichols, T.T (2018) "Directed functional connectivity using dynamic graphical models" NeuroImage, 175, 340 -353

Jewson, J., Smith, J.Q. & Holmes, C. (2018) "Principled Bayesian Minimum Divergence Inference" Entropy

###### In Decision Analysis

Edwards, E.A. Hope C., Jumsden, J; Rivas,C; Steed, E., Pirunsarn,Y. Jumbe,S., Newby,C,Shenvi,A ; Mazumdar, S. Smith, J.Q.;Greenhill,D.; Griffiths, C.J. Walton, R.T. (2018) "Creating a theoretically-grounded, gamified health app: lessons from developing the Cigbreak smoking cessation smartphone game" JMIR Serious Games

Barons M. J., Wright S. K. & Smith J. Q., (2018) "Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems", in: Dias LC, Morton A, Quigley J (eds), Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Springer, New York, Chapter 17 p 445-478

Smith, J.Q. & Shenvi, A. (2018) "Assault Crime Dynamic Chain Event Graphs" Warwick Research Report (WRAP)

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Gorgen, C. , Bigatti,A. ,Riccomagno, E. & Smith,J.Q. (2018) "Discovery of statistical equivalence classes using computer algebra" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 95 . pp. 167-184. .doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2018.01.003

##### 2017 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Shiers, N., Aston J.A.D., Smith, J.Q. &Coleman, J.S. (2017) "Gaussian Tree Constraints applied to Acoustic Linguistic Functional Data" Journal of Multivariate Analysis vol 154 199 -215

Collazo, R.A. and Smith, J.Q.(2017) "The Dynamic Chain Event Graph" Proceedings of ISI Marrakech, 2017(to appear)

Costa, L, Smith, J.Q. & Nicholls, T, (2017) “Studying the Effective Brain Connectivity using the Multiregression Dynamic Models” Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Vol. 31, No. 4, 765-800.

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. Haywood, S., Hort, M. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management" Risk Analysis available online October 17 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12904

Thwaites P.A. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian Games" Reliability Enginereering and System Safety (online:12-MAY-2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.012

Gilbert, M., French,S & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Influence of Group Members in Multi-Attribute Utilities" International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making (to appear)

Leonelli, M. & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Directed Expected Utility Networks" Decision Analysis ISSN 1545-8490 (available online 10 May ISSN 1545-8504, pp 1-18)

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Leonelli, M. Roccomagno E., & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A symbolic algebra for the computation of expected utilities in multiplicative influence diagrams" Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence

Leonelli, M, Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "Sensitivity analysis in multilinear probabilistic models" Information Sciences 411 84 - 97

Thwaites, P.A. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A new method for tackling asymmetric decision problems" International J. of Approximate Reasoning

##### 2016 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Shiers , N. ,Zwiernik, P., Aston. J.A.D. & Smith, J.Q. (2016) "The Correlation Space of Latent Tree Models" [arXiv] Biometrika 103, (3) 531 -545

Collazo, R.A. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A new family of Non-local Priors for Chain Event Graph model selection" Bayesian Analysis 11, no 4, 1165 - 1201

Underhill, N.T. & Smith J.Q. (2016) "Context - dependent score based Bayesian information criteria" Bayesian Analysis 2016 Vol 11 no 4, pp 1005-1033

Oates, CJ. Smith, JQ. Mukherjee, S. & Cussens. J (2016) "Exact Estimation of Multiple Directed Acyclic Graphs". Statistics and Computing 26,4, 797 -811

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "Decision Analytic Framework for a Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergency Management " in UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics, Eds Aston, P.J., Mullholland, A.J. &Taut, K.M.M. Springer, 163 -171

French, S., N. Argyris, H. Layton, J. Q. Smith, S. M. Haywood & M. Hort (2016). "Presenting Uncertain Information in Radiological Emergencies". https://admlc.wordpress.com/publications/. UK Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee.

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Liverani, S. & J. Q. Smith. (2016) "Bayesian selection of graphical regulatory models". International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 77, 87–104. URL: doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.05.007

Oates CJ, Smith JQ, & Mukherjee S. (2016) Estimation of Causal Structure Using Conditional DAG Models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17(54):1−23. [arXiv] [Supplement]

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A Differential approach to Causality in Staged Trees" Proceedings of the Eighth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models Switzaland September 2016.

##### 2015 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Barclay, L.M., R. Collazo, Smith, J.Q. Thwaites , P. & Nicholson , A. (2015) "Dynamic Chain Event Graphs" Electronic J of Statistics 2015, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2130-2169.

Costa L, Smith,J.Q. Nicholls, T. & Cussens J. (2015) "Searching Multiregression Dynamic Models of Resting-State fMRI Networks Using Integer Programming" Bayesian Analysis Vol. 10, No. 2, 441-478

Smith, J.Q., Barons, M.j. & Leonelli, M. (2015) "Decision focused inference on Networked Probabilistic Systems: with applications to food security" Proceeedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting, Seattle, August 2015

Gorgen,C., Leonelli. M & Smith J.Q.(2015) "A Differential Approach for Staged Trees" 13th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty July 2015 France

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2015) "Bayesian Decision Support for Complex Systems with Many Distributed Experts " Ann Oper Res 235 (1) 517 - 542

##### 2014 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Cowell, R.G. & Smith , J.Q. (2014) "Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs" Electronic J of Statistics Vol.8, 965 - 997

Barclay, L.M., Hutton , J.L. & Smith, J.Q. (2014) "Chain Event Graphs for Informed Missingness" Bayesian Analysis, 9,1, 53-76

##### 2013 Refereed Publications

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Dodd, L. & Smith, J.Q. (2013) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" J. of the Operational Res. Soc. , 64, 17-33

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Using Graphical Models and Multi-attribute Utility Theory for Probabilistic Uncertainty Handling in Large Systems" IEEE 29th International Conference on Data Engineering Workshops (ICDEW), .181-192 ISBN: 978-1-4673-5303-82013

Leonelli. M. & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Dynamic Uncertainty Handling for Coherent Decision Making in Nuclear Emergency Response" CRiSM Res Rep and Proceedings of the 2013 Meeting of the American Nuclear Society Washington

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Barclay, L.M. , Hutton, J.L. & Smith, J.Q.(2013) "Refining a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 54, 1300-1309.

##### 2012 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. &Smith, J.Q. (2012) "Tree-cumulants and the identifiability of Bayesian tree models", Bernoulli 2012, Vol. 18, No. 1, 290-321.

Smith, J.Q. & Rigat, F. (2012) "Isoseparation and Robustness in Finite Parameter Bayesian Inference" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Vol.64 , 3, 495 -519

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Dodd L. (2012) "Regulating Autonomous Agents facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example" Decision Analysis ,Vol 9. No. 2, 165 -171

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Shiers, N. & Smith, J.Q.(2012) "Graphical inequality diagnostics for phylogenetic trees" Proceedings of 6th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Granada Spain, 19 -21 Sept 2012 pp. 291-298

##### 2011 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Implicit inequality constraints in a binary tree model" Electronic J. of Statistics, 5, 1276 - 1312

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Dynamic Staged Trees for Discrete Multivariate Time Series: Forecasting, Model Selection and Causal Analysis", Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 06, No. 02, 279 - 306,

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Bayesian MAP Selection of Chain Event graphs" J. Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152 -1165

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Freeman, G. (2011) "Distributional Kalman Filters for Bayesian Forecasting and Closed Form Recurrences" J. of Forecasting, Vol 30, No. 1 210 -224

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Study of Key Interventions into Terrorism using Bayesian Networks" (SRG/09/44) Home Office Final Report (44 pages)

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y., Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, K. (2011) "Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time invariant Dynamic Systems with Graphical Models" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 52, no. 7, 960--977; MR2835054

##### 2010 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Liverani S., Smith, J.Q. & Cussens J. (2010) "Searching a Multivariate Partition Space using Weighted MAX-SAT" in CIBB 2009, F. Masulli, L. Peterson, and R. Tagliaferri (Eds.), LNBI 6160, 240--253. Springer, Heidelberg

Monnier, A. , Liverani,S., Bouvet, R. Jesson, B. , Smith, J.Q., Mosser, J., Corellou, F. and Bouget. F-Y. (2010) "Orchestrated transcription of biological processes in the marine picoeukaryote Ostreococcus exposed to light/dark cycles" BMC Genomics 2010, 11:192

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. (2010) " Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press

Smith, J.Q. (2010) "An Introduction to Bayes Nets for Evaluating Home Office Policies" Home Office Tutorial Paper Feb'10

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Thwaites, P. Smith, J.Q. & Riccomagno, E. (2010) "Causal Analysis with Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889–909

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2010) "On the Robustness of Bayesian Networks to Learning from Non-conjugate Sampling" International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 51, 558 -572

##### 2009 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Non-parametric dynamic time series modelling with applications to detecting neural dynamics" The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1776–1804

Liverani,S. , Anderson, P.E. Edwards, K.D. Millar, A.J. &Smith, J.Q. (2009) " Efficient Utility-based Clustering over High Dimensional Partition Spaces" J. of Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 04, No. 03, 539 - 572

Riccomagno, E. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "The Geometry of Causal Probability Trees that are Algebraically Constrained" in "Optimal Design and Related Areas in Optimization and Statistics" Eds L. Pronzato and A.Zhigljavsky, Springer 131-152

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y. Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, J. (2009) "Mulitagent Bayesian Forecasting of Time Series with Graphical Models" Proceeding of FLAIRS 09 - Florida, May 19 - 21 '09

Thwaites, P. Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Chain Event Graph MAP Selection" Proceedings of KEOD 09 Madeira 392- 5

##### 2008 Refereed Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Smith, J.Q., Anderson, P.E, & Liverani, S. (2008) "Separation Measures and the Geometry of Bayes factor selection for Classification" J Roy. Statist. Soc. B, Vol. 70, Part 5, 957 - 980

Parsons, N., Smith, J.Q., Thonnes, E.,Wilson, R.L. & Wang, L. (2008) "Rotationally invariant statistics for examining the evidence from the pores in fingerprints" Law, Probability and Risk, 7, 1-14;

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2008) "Large Sample Robustness in Bayesian Networks" Proceedings of the 4th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models" Eds M. Jaeger and T.D. Nielsen, Hirtshals, Denmark, September, 2008, 265 - 272

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Modelling” in Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, " ,2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 459-462

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Trees” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 462 - 70

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Influence Diagrams” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 897 - 910

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine

Thwaites, P., Smith, J.Q. & Cowell, R. (2008)" Propagation using Chain Event Graphs" Proceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Editors D. McAllester and P. Myllymaki, Helsinki, July 2008, 546 -553

Smith, J.Q. & Anderson P.E. (2008) "Conditional independence and Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 172, 1, 42 - 68