# Publications

##### Selected Recent Papers, Research Reports and books from 2008

##### Working Papers currently under submission

###### To Statistics and Probability

Collazo, R.A. & Smith, J.Q.(2018) "An N Time-Slice Dynamic Chain Event Graph" (submitted)

Wilkerson, R.L.& Smith, J.Q. (2018) "Customised Structural Elicitation" (submitted) arXiv:1807.03693

Leonelli,M., Barons, M.J. & Smith, J.Q.(2018) "A conditional independence framework for coherent modularized inference" arXiv:1807.10628

Zwiernick, P. & Smith J.Q. (2017) " The Dependence of Routine Bayesian Model Selection Methods on Irrelevant Alternatives" (under revision) CRiSM Res Rep.[arXiv],

Leonelli, M., Riccomagno, E & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "The algebra of integrated partial belief systems" CRiSM Res Rep (under revision)

Thwaites P.A.& Smith J.Q. (2017) "A Separation Theorem for Chain Event Graphs" (submitted) Smith J.Q., Barons, M.J. & Leonelli, M.(2015) "Bayesian Inference in Distributed Expert Systems" CRiSM report, ArXiv##### 2018 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Collazo, R.A., Gorgen, C & Smith, J.Q.(2018) "Chain Event Graphs" Chapman Hall February (229 pages)

Costa, L., Smith, J.Q. & Nichols, T. (2018) " A Group Analysis using the Multiregression Dynamic Models of fMRI networked time series " Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference ( appeared online 6th April - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2018.03.004)

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2018) "Equivalence classes of Staged Trees" Bernoulli, Vol. 24, No. 4A, 2676-2692.

Schwab S.,Harbord, R., Zerbi, V., Elliott, L; , Afyounis,S., Smith, J.Q., Woolrich, M.W., Smith, S.M. , Nichols, T.T (2018) "Directed functional connectivity using dynamic graphical models" NeuroImage, 175, 340 -353

Jewson, J., Smith, J.Q. & Holmes, C. (2018) "Principled Bayesian Minimum Divergence Inference" Entropy (to appear)

###### In Decision Analysis

Edwards,E.A. Hope Caton, Jumsden, J; Rivas,C;Steed, E., Pirunsarn,Y. Jumbe,S., Newby,C,Shenvi,A ; azumdar, S. Smith, J.Q.;Greenhill,D.; Griffiths, C.J. Walton, R.T. (2018) "Creating a theoretically-grounded, gamified health app: lessons from developing the Cigbreak smoking cessation smartphone game" JMIR Serious Games (to appear)

Barons M. J., Wright S. K. & Smith J. Q., (2018) "Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems", in: Dias LC, Morton A, Quigley J (eds), Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Springer, New York, Chapter 17 p 445-478

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Gorgen, C. , Bigatti,A. ,Riccomagno, E. & Smith,J.Q. (2018) "Discovery of statistical equivalence classes using computer algebra" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 95 . pp. 167-184. .doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2018.01.003

##### 2017 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Shiers, N., Aston J.A.D., Smith, J.Q. &Coleman, J.S. (2017) "Gaussian Tree Constraints applied to Acoustic Linguistic Functional Data" Journal of Multivariate Analysis vol 154 199 -215

Collazo, R.A. and Smith, J.Q.(2017) "The Dynamic Chain Event Graph" Proceedings of ISI Marrakech, 2017(to appear)

Costa, L, Smith, J.Q. & Nicholls, T, (2017) “Studying the Effective Brain Connectivity using the Multiregression Dynamic Models” Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Vol. 31, No. 4, 765-800.

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. Haywood, S., Hort, M. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management" Risk Analysis available online October 17 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12904

Thwaites P.A. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian Games" Reliability Enginereering and System Safety (online:12-MAY-2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.012

Gilbert, M., French,S & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Influence of Group Members in Multi-Attribute Utilities" International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making (to appear)

Leonelli, M. & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Directed Expected Utility Networks" Decision Analysis ISSN 1545-8490 (available online 10 May ISSN 1545-8504, pp 1-18)

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Leonelli, M. Roccomagno E., & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A symbolic algebra for the computation of expected utilities in multiplicative influence diagrams" Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence (to appear)

Leonelli, M, Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "Sensitivity analysis in multilinear probabilistic models" Information Sciences 411 84 - 97

Thwaites, P.A. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A new method for tackling asymmetric decision problems" International J. of Approximate Reasoning (to appear)

##### 2016 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Shiers , N. ,Zwiernik, P., Aston. J.A.D. & Smith, J.Q. (2016) "The Correlation Space of Latent Tree Models" [arXiv] Biometrika 103, (3) 531 -545

Collazo, R.A. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A new family of Non-local Priors for Chain Event Graph model selection" Bayesian Analysis 11, no 4, 1165 - 1201

Underhill, N.T. & Smith J.Q. (2016) "Context - dependent score based Bayesian information criteria" Bayesian Analysis 2016 Vol 11 no 4, pp 1005-1033

Oates, CJ. Smith, JQ. Mukherjee, S. & Cussens. J (2016) "Exact Estimation of Multiple Directed Acyclic Graphs". Statistics and Computing 26,4, 797 -811

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "Decision Analytic Framework for a Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergency Management " in UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics, Eds Aston, P.J., Mullholland, A.J. &Taut, K.M.M. Springer, 163 -171

French, S., N. Argyris, H. Layton, J. Q. Smith, S. M. Haywood & M. Hort (2016). "Presenting Uncertain Information in Radiological Emergencies". https://admlc.wordpress.com/publications/. UK Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee.

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Liverani, S. & J. Q. Smith. (2016) "Bayesian selection of graphical regulatory models". International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 77, 87–104. URL: doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.05.007

Oates CJ, Smith JQ, & Mukherjee S. (2016) Estimation of Causal Structure Using Conditional DAG Models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17(54):1−23. [arXiv] [Supplement]

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A Differential approach to Causality in Staged Trees" Proceedings of the Eighth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models Switzaland September 2016.

##### 2015 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Barclay, L.M., R. Collazo, Smith, J.Q. Thwaites , P. & Nicholson , A. (2015) "Dynamic Chain Event Graphs" Electronic J of Statistics 2015, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2130-2169.

Costa L, Smith,J.Q. Nicholls, T. & Cussens J. (2015) "Searching Multiregression Dynamic Models of Resting-State fMRI Networks Using Integer Programming" Bayesian Analysis Vol. 10, No. 2, 441-478

Smith, J.Q., Barons, M.j. & Leonelli, M. (2015) "Decision focused inference on Networked Probabilistic Systems: with applications to food security" Proceeedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting, Seattle, August 2015

Gorgen,C., Leonelli. M & Smith J.Q.(2015) "A Differential Approach for Staged Trees" 13th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty July 2015 France

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2015) "Bayesian Decision Support for Complex Systems with Many Distributed Experts " Ann Oper Res 235 (1) 517 - 542

##### 2014 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Cowell, R.G. & Smith , J.Q. (2014) "Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs" Electronic J of Statistics Vol.8, 965 - 997

Barclay, L.M., Hutton , J.L. & Smith, J.Q. (2014) "Chain Event Graphs for Informed Missingness" Bayesian Analysis, 9,1, 53-76

##### 2013 Publications

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Dodd, L. & Smith, J.Q. (2013) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" J. of the Operational Res. Soc. , 64, 17-33

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Using Graphical Models and Multi-attribute Utility Theory for Probabilistic Uncertainty Handling in Large Systems" IEEE 29th International Conference on Data Engineering Workshops (ICDEW), .181-192 ISBN: 978-1-4673-5303-82013

Leonelli. M. & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Dynamic Uncertainty Handling for Coherent Decision Making in Nuclear Emergency Response" CRiSM Res Rep and Proceedings of the 2013 Meeting of the American Nuclear Society Washington

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Barclay, L.M. , Hutton, J.L. & Smith, J.Q.(2013) "Refining a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 54, 1300-1309.

##### 2012 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. &Smith, J.Q. (2012) "Tree-cumulants and the identifiability of Bayesian tree models", Bernoulli 2012, Vol. 18, No. 1, 290-321.

Smith, J.Q. & Rigat, F. (2012) "Isoseparation and Robustness in Finite Parameter Bayesian Inference" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Vol.64 , 3, 495 -519

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Dodd L. (2012) "Regulating Autonomous Agents facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example" Decision Analysis ,Vol 9. No. 2, 165 -171

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Shiers, N. & Smith, J.Q.(2012) "Graphical inequality diagnostics for phylogenetic trees" Proceedings of 6th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Granada Spain, 19 -21 Sept 2012 pp. 291-298

##### 2011 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Implicit inequality constraints in a binary tree model" Electronic J. of Statistics, 5, 1276 - 1312

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Dynamic Staged Trees for Discrete Multivariate Time Series: Forecasting, Model Selection and Causal Analysis", Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 06, No. 02, 279 - 306,

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Bayesian MAP Selection of Chain Event graphs" J. Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152 -1165

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Freeman, G. (2011) "Distributional Kalman Filters for Bayesian Forecasting and Closed Form Recurrences" J. of Forecasting, Vol 30, No. 1 210 -224

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Study of Key Interventions into Terrorism using Bayesian Networks" (SRG/09/44) Home Office Final Report (44 pages)

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y., Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, K. (2011) "Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time invariant Dynamic Systems with Graphical Models" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 52, no. 7, 960--977; MR2835054

##### 2010 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Liverani S., Smith, J.Q. & Cussens J. (2010) "Searching a Multivariate Partition Space using Weighted MAX-SAT" in CIBB 2009, F. Masulli, L. Peterson, and R. Tagliaferri (Eds.), LNBI 6160, 240--253. Springer, Heidelberg

Monnier, A. , Liverani,S., Bouvet, R. Jesson, B. , Smith, J.Q., Mosser, J., Corellou, F. and Bouget. F-Y. (2010) "Orchestrated transcription of biological processes in the marine picoeukaryote Ostreococcus exposed to light/dark cycles" BMC Genomics 2010, 11:192

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. (2010) " Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press

Smith, J.Q. (2010) "An Introduction to Bayes Nets for Evaluating Home Office Policies" Home Office Tutorial Paper Feb'10

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Thwaites, P. Smith, J.Q. & Riccomagno, E. (2010) "Causal Analysis with Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889–909

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2010) "On the Robustness of Bayesian Networks to Learning from Non-conjugate Sampling" International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 51, 558 -572

##### 2009 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Non-parametric dynamic time series modelling with applications to detecting neural dynamics" The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1776–1804

Liverani,S. , Anderson, P.E. Edwards, K.D. Millar, A.J. &Smith, J.Q. (2009) " Efficient Utility-based Clustering over High Dimensional Partition Spaces" J. of Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 04, No. 03, 539 - 572

Riccomagno, E. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "The Geometry of Causal Probability Trees that are Algebraically Constrained" in "Optimal Design and Related Areas in Optimization and Statistics" Eds L. Pronzato and A.Zhigljavsky, Springer 131-152

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y. Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, J. (2009) "Mulitagent Bayesian Forecasting of Time Series with Graphical Models" Proceeding of FLAIRS 09 - Florida, May 19 - 21 '09

Thwaites, P. Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Chain Event Graph MAP Selection" Proceedings of KEOD 09 Madeira 392- 5

##### 2008 Publications

###### In Statistics and Probability

Smith, J.Q., Anderson, P.E, & Liverani, S. (2008) "Separation Measures and the Geometry of Bayes factor selection for Classification" J Roy. Statist. Soc. B, Vol. 70, Part 5, 957 - 980

Parsons, N., Smith, J.Q., Thonnes, E.,Wilson, R.L. & Wang, L. (2008) "Rotationally invariant statistics for examining the evidence from the pores in fingerprints" Law, Probability and Risk, 7, 1-14;

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2008) "Large Sample Robustness in Bayesian Networks" Proceedings of the 4th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models" Eds M. Jaeger and T.D. Nielsen, Hirtshals, Denmark, September, 2008, 265 - 272

###### In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Modelling” in Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, " ,2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 459-462

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Trees” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 462 - 70

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Influence Diagrams” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 897 - 910

###### In Artificial Intelligence & Machine

Thwaites, P., Smith, J.Q. & Cowell, R. (2008)" Propagation using Chain Event Graphs" Proceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Editors D. McAllester and P. Myllymaki, Helsinki, July 2008, 546 -553

Smith, J.Q. & Anderson P.E. (2008) "Conditional independence and Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 172, 1, 42 - 68