Kieran Drury

I am a third-year student in the Warwick Maths and Stats CDTLink opens in a new window researching the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs) in data-sparse environments through the use of structured expert judgement (SEJ) elicitation. I am particularly interested in the use of BNs as decision support systems - modelling policy interventions that are being considered for real-world implementation by governments, councils and other decision centres. One of my research applications is the modelling of pollinator sustainability strategies in Australia in light of the incursion of the Varroa destructor mite in 2022. I am currently working on a number of projects, including how BN structures can be refined in order to facilitate efficient quantitative elicitation with minimal information loss; how conditional probability tables can be approximated through a reduced number of elicited probabilities using regression and interpolation techniques; and how a specific sub-class of BNs - the chain event graph (CEG) - can be used to model human reasoning through stories, as applied to criminal cases.

Prior to my PhD, I completed a 4-year BSc MMORSELink opens in a new window degree at the University of Warwick in the Department of Statistics. My Masters dissertation focused on network-searching algorithms, taking a computational and theoretical approach to optimising a search on a network whose structure is unknown to the searcher. The searcher only learns the structure of the network as they traverse it, remembering which edges they have travelled along (and in which direction). This was under the supervision of Professor Steve AlpernLink opens in a new window. I presented this research at the 2023 LSE-Warwick Workshop on Search Games and PatrollingLink opens in a new window.

I have presented some of my PhD research at the Workshop on Uncertainty Processing 2025Link opens in a new window, the International Conference on Decision Support System TechnologiesLink opens in a new window and the Bayesian Network Modelling Association Annual Conference 2025Link opens in a new window. I have also attended other conferences such as INFORMS Advances in Decision Analysis 2024Link opens in a new window. I also regularly attend the Seminar Series in Expert JudgementLink opens in a new window organised by TU Delft. I am an active member of the Bayesian Network Modelling AssociationLink opens in a new window.

Aside from academia, I enjoy many sports such as trampolining, canoe polo, badminton, climbing, football and snooker. I have served three years on the executive committee of the University of Warwick Trampolining Club (social secretary, president, secretary), and I have also served a year on the University of Warwick Canoe Polo Club executive committee (fresher representative). I speak Spanish and have studied Spanish modules up to Level C1 of the Common European Framework through the Language CentreLink opens in a new window as part of my undergraduate degree.

Publications and Conference Presentations

Drury, K., Barons, M.J., & Smith, J.Q. "Structural Refinement of Bayesian Networks for Efficient Model Parameterisation"Link opens in a new window, arXiv preprint, 2025, https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00334Link opens in a new window
Drury, K., Barons, M.J., & Smith, J.Q. "Surjective Independence of Causal Influences for Local Bayesian Network Structures"Link opens in a new window, arXiv preprint, 2025, https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24759Link opens in a new window
Drury, K., Barons, M.J., & Smith, J.Q. (Conference Paper) "Surjective Independence of Causal Influences for Local Bayesian Network Structures" in Proceedings of the 13th Workshop on Uncertainty ProcessingLink opens in a new window (M. Studený, N. Ay, A. Capotorti, L. Csirmaz, R. Jiroušek, G.D. Kleiter, P.P. Shenoy eds.), MatfyzPress, Prague, 2025, pp. 116-127.
Drury, K. & Smith, J.Q. "Dynamic Bayesian Networks, Elicitation and Data Embedding for Secure Environments"Link opens in a new window, Entropy, 2024, 26(11), 985; https://doi.org/10.3390/e2611098

Posters

Drury, K., Barons, M.J., & Smith, J.Q. (Poster) "Surjective Independence of Causal Influences for Local Bayesian Network Structures" in Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology (ICDSST 2025)Link opens in a new window(S. Radovanović, B. Delibašić. A.P.C.S. Costa, J. Papathanasiou, M.T. Escobar eds.), Belgrade, 2025, p. 190.

Grants

GTA Teaching

Contact

Email: kieran.drury@warwick.ac.uk

Office: MB4.14