Events

Title: Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900 (joint with Sarah Quincy)

Zachary will present an updated version of this study https://www.nber.org/papers/w33797

Title: The Persistence of Female Political Power in Africa (by Siwan Anderson, Sophia Du Plessis, Sahar Parsa, and James A. Robinson)

Abstract: Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today's formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers.

Title: Health Insurance for Seasonal Savings: Evidence from Rural Côte d'Ivoire

Authors: Günther Fink, B. Kelsey Jack, Renate Strobl, Dao Daouda

Abstract: Households in low-income agricultural economies face large seasonal fluctuations in income and limited access to financial tools for smoothing consumption. In such settings, health insurance can serve not only as risk protection, but also as a state-contingent savings technology, transferring resources from high-income harvest periods to low-income lean periods. We study the rollout of Côte d'Ivoire's national health insurance scheme in a context with high morbidity, substantial out-of-pocket expenditures, and pronounced income seasonality---conditions under which the potential welfare gains from insurance are particularly large. Using a randomized subsidy design among 2,468 cocoa-farming households, we show that insurance demand is highly responsive to both price and cash-on-hand liquidity. Despite strong demand and actuarially favorable pricing, we find limited effects on health spending or consumption. We show that this disconnect arises from frictions in accessing benefits, including weak verification and reimbursement environments that limit providers' willingness to honor coverage without immediate proof. Our results highlight the importance of implementation, trust, and contract enforceability in determining the welfare impacts of social insurance.

Title: Occupational Dynasties and Development (coauthored with Sid George and Martin Shu)

Title: Wildlife and Conflict: The Cost of Protecting Biodiversity

Abstract:

Our planet is experiencing the first human-induced mass extinction of species. In response,

policymakers have implemented international trade bans to preserve rare animals and forest

species such as rhinos, elephants, and rosewood. Yet little research examines their consequences.

Combining georeferenced habitat maps of wild animals and trees with armed conflict data, I

uncover sizeable adverse effects of international trade ban treaties. First, event-study estimates

reveal that bans raise the likelihood of conflict in habitat areas by about 40%. Two findings

support a windfall-related conflict mechanism. For elephant ivory, a natural experiment shows

that, in response to supply-side policies, prices change, which in turn changes the likelihood

of conflict events in their habitat. Given the elephant’s broad habitat, the implied magnitude

exceeds that of well-studied conflict minerals. For wild trees, satellite data show that harvesting

shifts from high- to low-capacity states once bans are imposed, generating rents that spark

violence. An analysis of battles’ locations before and after the policy reveals that militias and

rebels expand into new, distant areas and are more likely to gain territorial control, consistent

with a feasibility mechanism in which windfalls relax budget constraints. A quantitative model

suggests that a targeted policy restricting trade in states with strong institutions and smaller

wildlife stocks can conserve resources while limiting conflict. Given these spillovers, international

trade bans, if maintained, should be accompanied by state-building support for low-income

countries, which often lack enforcement capacity.

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nyIPlpsm7AFibk5cBvQFmN_Osl8f8IC-/view

Title: Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900 (joint with Sarah Quincy)

Zachary will present an updated version of this study https://www.nber.org/papers/w33797